An existing shared risk framework designed for assessing and comparing threat-based risks to water utilities is being extended to incorporate electric power. An important differentiating characteristic of this framework is the use of a system-centric rather than an asset-centric approach. This approach allows anonymous sharing of results and enables comparison of assessments across different utilities within an infrastructure sector. By allowing utility owners to compare their assessments with others, they can improve their self-assessments and identification of "unknown unknowns". This document provides an approach for extension of the framework to electric power, including treatment of dependencies and interdependencies. The systems, threats, and mathematical description of associated risks used in a prototype framework are provided. The method is extensible so that additional infrastructure sectors can be incorporated. Preliminary results for a proof of concept calculation are provided.
Tidwell, Vincent C.; Gunda, Thushara G.; Hightower, Michael M.; Xu, Pei X.; Xu, Xuesong X.; Bernknopf, Bernknopf; Broadbent, Craig B.; Malczynski, Len M.; Jacobson, Jake J.
Tidwell, Vincent C.; Gunda, Thushara G.; Hightower, Michael M.; Xu, Pei X.; Bernknopf, Richard B.; Broadbent, Craig B.; Malczynski, Len M.; Jacobson, Jake J.
Electric power is crucial to the function of other infrastructures, as well as to the stability of the economy and the social order. Disruption of commercial electric power service, even for brief periods of time, can create significant consequences to the function of other sectors, and make living in some environments untenable. This analysis, conducted in 2017 for the United States Department of Energy (DOE) as part of the Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium (GMLC) Initiative, focuses on describing the function of each of the other infrastructure sectors and subsectors, with an eye towards those elements of these sectors that depend on primary electric power service through the commercial electric power grid. It leverages the experience of Sandia analysts in analyzing historical disruptive events, and from the development of capabilities designed to identify the physical, logical, and geographic connectivity between infrastructures. The analysis goes on to identify alternatives for the provision of primary electric power service, and the redundancy of said alternatives, to provide a picture of the sector’s ability to withstand an extended disruption.
As climate change and human migration accelerate globally, decision-makers are seeking tools that can deepen their understanding of the complex nexus between climate change and human migration. These tools can help to identify populations under pressure to migrate, and to explore proactive policy options and adaptive measures. Given the complexity of factors influencing migration, this article presents a system dynamics-based model that couples migration decision making and behavior with the interacting dynamics of economy, labor, population, violence, governance, water, food, and disease. The regional model is applied here to the test case of migration within and beyond Mali. The study explores potential systems impacts of a range of proactive policy solutions and shows that improving the effectiveness of governance and increasing foreign aid to urban areas have the highest potential of those investigated to reduce the necessity to migrate in the face of climate change.
Tidwell, Vincent C.; Woertz, Byron W.; Bailey, Michael x.; Voisin, Nathalie V.; Turner, Sean s.; Macknick, Jordan M.; Cohen, Sturart C.; Dyreson, Ana D.; Miara, Ariel M.; Pauley, Melissa P.
We show seasonal runoff from montane uplands is crucial for plant growth in agricultural communities of northern New Mexico. These communities typically employ traditional irrigation systems, called acequias, which rely mainly upon spring snowmelt runoff for irrigation. The trend of the past few decades is an increase in temperature, reduced snow pack, and earlier runoff from snowmelt across much of the western United States. In order to predict the potential impacts of changes in future climate a system dynamics model was constructed to simulate the surface water supplies in a montane upland watershed of a small irrigated community in northern New Mexico through the rest of the 21st century. End-term simulations of representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 suggest that runoff during the months of April to August could be reduced by 22% and 56%, respectively. End-term simulations also displayed a shift in the beginning and peak of snowmelt runoff by up to one month earlier than current conditions. Results suggest that rising temperatures will drive reduced runoff in irrigation season and earlier snowmelt runoff in the dry season towards the end of the 21st century. Modeled results suggest that climate change leads to runoff scheme shift and increased frequency of drought; due to the uncontemporaneous of irrigation season and runoff scheme, water shortage will increase. Potential impacts of climate change scenarios and mitigation strategies should be further investigated to ensure the resilience of traditional agricultural communities in New Mexico and similar regions.
Survey data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) was combined with data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to explore ways in which operations might impact water use intensity (both withdrawals and consumption) at thermoelectric power plants. Two disparities in cooling and power systems operations were identified that could impact water use intensity: (1) Idling Gap - where cooling systems continue to operate when their boilers and generators are completely idled; and (2) Cycling Gap - where cooling systems operate at full capacity, while their associated boiler and generator systems cycle over a range of loads. Analysis of the EIA and EPA data indicated that cooling systems operated on average 13% more than their corresponding power system (Idling Gap), while power systems operated on average 30% below full load when the boiler was reported as operating (Cycling Gap). Regression analysis was then performed to explore whether the degree of power plant idling/cycling could be related to the physical characteristics of the plant, its environment or time of year. While results suggested that individual power plants' operations were unique, weak trends consistently pointed to a plant's place on the dispatch curve as influencing patterns of cooling system, boiler, and generator operation. This insight better positions us to interpret reported power plant water use data as well as improve future water use projections.
Risk assessment plays a vital role in protecting our nation's critical infrastructure. Traditionally, such assessments have been conducted as a singular activity confined to the boarders of a particular asset or utility with little external sharing of information. In contrast other domains, e.g., disaster preparedness, cyber security, food-borne hazards, have demonstrated the benefits of sharing data, experiences and lessons learned in assessing and managing risk. Here we explore the concept of a Shared Risk Framework (SRF) in the context of critical infrastructure assessments. In this exploration, key elements of an SRF are introduced and initial instantiations demonstrated by way of three water utility assessments. Results from these three demonstrations were then combined with results from four other risk assessments developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts. Through this comparison we were able to explore potential challenges and benefits from implementation of a SRF. Challenges included both the capacity and interest of local utilities to conduct a shared risk assessment; particularly, wide scale adoption of any SRF will require a clear demonstration that such an effort supports the basic mission of the utility, adds benefit to the utility, and protects utility data from unintended access or misuse. In terms of benefits, anonymous sharing of results among utilities could provide the added benefits of recognizing and correcting bias; identifying ‘unknown, unknowns’; assisting self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility; and providing a basis for treating shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities.
Tidwell, Vincent C.; Macknick, Jordan M.; Voisin, Nathalie V.; Kuiper, Jim K.
Water is a critical resource in the production of electric power. The purpose of this plan is to extend support to the nation's three electric interconnections toward integrating water issues into their long-range transmission planning. This continued support is at the request of the interconnections. The proposed program leverages prior support as well as that of other similarly focused efforts funded across the Department of Energy (DOE). The effort will utilize a project team lead by Sandia National Laboratories and supported by Argonne National Laboratory, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The activities recorded here are meant to provide a menu of potential projects that could be implemented as available resources permit.
Sociohydrological studies use interdisciplinary approaches to explore the complex interactions between physical and social water systems and increase our understanding of emergent and paradoxical system behaviors. The dynamics of community values and social cohesion, however, have received little attention in modeling studies due to quantification challenges. Social structures associated with community-managed irrigation systems around the world, in particular, reflect these communities' experiences with a multitude of natural and social shocks. Using the Valdez acequia (a communally-managed irrigation community in northern New Mexico) as a simulation case study, we evaluate the impact of that community's social structure in governing its responses to water availability stresses posed by climate change. Specifically, a system dynamics model (developed using insights from community stakeholders and multiple disciplines that captures biophysical, socioeconomic, and sociocultural dynamics of acequia systems) was used to generate counterfactual trajectories to explore how the community would behave with streamflow conditions expected under climate change. We found that earlier peak flows, combined with adaptive measures of shifting crop selection, allowed for greater production of higher value crops and fewer people leaving the acequia. The economic benefits were lost, however, if downstream water pressures increased. Even with significant reductions in agricultural profitability, feedbacks associated with community cohesion buffered the community's population and land parcel sizes from more detrimental impacts, indicating the community's resilience under natural and social stresses. Continued exploration of social structures is warranted to better understand these systems' responses to stress and identify possible leverage points for strengthening community resilience.
The availability of freshwater supplies to meet future demand is a growing concern. Water availability metrics are needed to inform future water development decisions. With the help of water managers, water availability was mapped for over 1300 watersheds throughout the 31 contiguous states in the eastern US complimenting a prior study of the west. The compiled set of water availability data is unique in that it considers multiple sources of water (fresh surface and groundwater, wastewater and brackish groundwater); accommodates institutional controls placed on water use; is accompanied by cost estimates to access, treat and convey each unique source of water; and is compared to projected future growth in consumptive water use to 2030. Although few administrative limits have been set on water availability in the east, water managers have identified 315 fresh surface water and 398 fresh groundwater basins (with 151 overlapping basins) as areas of concern (AOCs) where water supply challenges exist due to drought related concerns, environmental flows, groundwater overdraft, or salt water intrusion. This highlights a difference in management where AOCs are identified in the east which simply require additional permitting, while in the west strict administrative limits are established. Although the east is generally considered 'water rich' roughly a quarter of the basins were identified as AOCs; however, this is still in strong contrast to the west where 78% of the surface water basins are operating at or near their administrative limit. Little effort was noted on the part of eastern or western water managers to quantify non-fresh water resources.
Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.
Tidwell, Vincent C.; Corning-Padilla, Alexis C.; Bennett, Katrina B.; Middleton, Richard M.; Behery, Susan B.; Macknick, Jordan M.; Brinkman, Greg B.; Meng, Measrainsey M.
Consideration of water supply in transmission expansion planning (TEP) provides a valuable means of managing impacts of thermoelectric generation on limited water resources. Toward this opportunity, thermoelectric water intensity factors and water supply availability (fresh and non-fresh sources) were incorporated into a recent TEP exercise conducted for the electric interconnection in the Western United States. The goal was to inform the placement of new thermoelectric generation so as to minimize issues related to water availability. Although freshwater availability is limited in the West, few instances across five TEP planning scenarios were encountered where water availability impacted the development of new generation. This unexpected result was related to planning decisions that favored the development of low water use generation that was geographically dispersed across the West. These planning decisions were not made because of their favorable influence on thermoelectric water demand; rather, on the basis of assumed future fuel and technology costs, policy drivers and the topology of electricity demand. Results also projected that interconnection-wide thermoelectric water consumption would increase by 31% under the business-as-usual case, while consumption would decrease by 42% under a scenario assuming a low-carbon future. Except in a few instances, new thermoelectric water consumption could be accommodated with less than 10% of the local available water supply; however, limited freshwater supplies and state-level policies could increase use of non-fresh water sources for new thermoelectric generation. Results could have been considerably different if scenarios favoring higher-intensity water use generation technology or potential impacts of climate change had been explored. Conduct of this exercise highlighted the importance of integrating water into all phases of TEP, particularly joint management of decisions that are both directly (e.g., water availability constraint) and indirectly (technology or policy constraints) related to future thermoelectric water demand, as well as, the careful selection of scenarios that adequately bound the potential dimensions of water impact.
The World Water and Agriculture Model has been used to simulate water, hydropower, and food sector effects in Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia during the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reservoir. This unique capability allows tradeoffs to be made between filling policies for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reservoir. This Nile River Basin study is presented to illustrate the capacity to use the World Water and Agriculture Model to simulate regional food security issues while keeping a global perspective. The study uses runoff data from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 and information from the literature in order to establish a reasonable set of hydrological initial conditions. Gross Domestic Product and population growth are modelled exogenously based on a composite projection of United Nations and World Bank data. The effects of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam under various percentages of water withheld are presented.
World energy demand is projected to increase by more than a third by 2035 and with it the use of water to extract and process fuels and generate electricity. Management of this energy-water nexus requires a clear understanding of the inter-related demands of these resources as well as their regional distribution. Toward this need the fresh water consumed for energy production was mapped for almost 12 000 watersheds distributed across the 21-economies comprising the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. Fresh water consumption was estimated for ten different sectors including thermoelectric and hydroelectric power; energy extraction including coal, oil, natural gas, uranium and unconventional oil/gas; energy processing including oil and biofuels; and biofuel feedstock irrigation. These measures of water consumption were put in context by drawing comparison with published measures of water risk. In total 791 watersheds (32%) of the 2511 watersheds where energy related water consumption occurred were also characterized by high to extreme water risk, these watersheds were designated as being at energy-water risk. For six economies watersheds at energy-water risk represented half or more of all basins where energy related water consumption occurred, while four additional economies exceeded 30%.
The importance of the High Plains Aquifer is broadly recognized as is its vulnerability to continued overuse. T his study e xplore s how continued depletions of the High Plains Aquifer might impact both critical infrastructure and the economy at the local, r egional , and national scale. This analysis is conducted at the county level over a broad geographic region within the states of Kansas and Nebraska. In total , 140 counties that overlie the High Plains Aquifer in these two states are analyzed. The analysis utilizes future climate projections to estimate crop production. Current water use and management practices are projected into the future to explore their related impact on the High Plains Aquifer , barring any changes in water management practices, regulat ion, or policy. Finally, the impact of declining water levels and even exhaustion of groundwater resources are projected for specific sectors of the economy as well as particular elements of the region's critical infrastructure.
The Integrated Human Futures Project provides a set of analytical and quantitative modeling and simulation tools that help explore the links among human social, economic, and ecological conditions, human resilience, conflict, and peace, and allows users to simulate tradeoffs and consequences associated with different future development and mitigation scenarios. In the current study, we integrate five distinct modeling platforms to simulate the potential risk of social unrest in Egypt resulting from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. The five platforms simulate hydrology, agriculture, economy, human ecology, and human psychology/behavior, and show how impacts derived from development initiatives in one sector (e.g., hydrology) might ripple through to affect other sectors and how development and security concerns may be triggered across the region. This approach evaluates potential consequences, intended and unintended, associated with strategic policy actions that span the development-security nexus at the national, regional, and international levels. Model results are not intended to provide explicit predictions, but rather to provide system-level insight for policy makers into the dynamics among these interacting sectors, and to demonstrate an approach to evaluating short- and long-term policy trade-offs across different policy domains and stakeholders. The GERD project is critical to government-planned development efforts in Ethiopia but is expected to reduce downstream freshwater availability in the Nile Basin, fueling fears of negative social and economic impacts that could threaten stability and security in Egypt. We tested these hypotheses and came to the following preliminary conclusions. First, the GERD will have an important short-term impact on water availability, food production, and hydropower production in Egypt, depending on the short- term reservoir fill rate. Second, the GERD will have a very small impact on water availability in the Nile Basin over the longer term. Depending on the GERD fill rate, short-term (e.g., within its first 5 years of operation) annual losses in Egyptian food production may peak briefly at 25 percent. Long-term (e.g., 15 to 30 year) cumulative losses in Egypt's food production may be less than 3 percent regardless of the fill rate, with the GERD having essentially no impact on projected annual food production in Egypt about 25 years after opening. For the quick fill rates, the short-term losses may be sufficient to create an important decrease in overall household health among the general population, which, along with other economic stressors and different strategies employed by the government, could lead to social unrest. Third, and perhaps most importantly, our modeling suggests that the GERD's effect on Egypt's food and water resources is small when compared to the effect of projected Egyptian population and economic growth (and the concomitant increase in water consumption). The latter dominating factors are exacerbated in the modeling by natural climate variability and may be further exacerbated by climate change. Our modeling suggests that these growth dynamics combine to create long-term water scarcity in Egypt, regardless of the Ethiopian project. All else being equal, filling strategies that employ slow fill rates for the GERD (e.g., 8 to 13 years) may mitigate the risks in future scenarios for Egypt somewhat, but no policy or action regarding the GERD is likely to significantly alleviate the projected water scarcity in Egypt's Nile Basin. However, general beliefs among the Egyptian populace regarding the GERD as a major contributing factor for scarcities in Egypt could make Ethiopia a scapegoat for Egyptian grievances -- contributing to social unrest in Egypt and generating undesirable (and unnecessary) tension between these two countries. Such tension could threaten the constructive relationships between Egypt and Ethiopia that are vital to maintaining stability and security within and between their respective regional spheres of influence, Middle East and North Africa, and the Horn of Africa.
The energy-water nexus has been mapped for almost 12,000 watersheds distributed across the 21-economies comprising the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. Water consumption for energy production was estimated for 9 different sectors including thermoelectric and hydroelectric power; energy extraction including coal, oil, natural gas, uranium and unconventional oil/gas; and, energy processing including oil and biofuels. Conversely, the energy consumed providing water services was mapped for three sectors, drinking water, waste water and seawater desalination. These measures of resource use were put in context by drawing comparison with published measures of water risk. The objective of the mapping was to quantify the energy-water nexus and its variability at the subnational level, pinpoint potential vulnerabilities, and identify opportunities for international collaboration.
Developing nations incur a greater risk to climate change than the developed world due to poorly managed human/natural resources, unreliable infrastructure and brittle governing/economic institutions. These vulnerabilities often give rise to a climate induced “domino effect” of reduced natural resource production-leading to economic hardship, social unrest, and humanitarian crises. Integral to this cascading set of events is increased human migration, leading to the “spillover” of impacts to adjoining areas with even broader impact on global markets and security. Given the complexity of factors influencing human migration and the resultant spill-over effect, quantitative tools are needed to aid policy analysis. Toward this need, a series of migration models were developed along with a system dynamics model of the spillover effect. The migration decision models were structured according to two interacting paths, one that captured long-term “chronic” impacts related to protracted deteriorating quality of life and a second focused on short-term “acute” impacts of disaster and/or conflict. Chronic migration dynamics were modeled for two different cases; one that looked only at emigration but at a national level for the entire world; and a second that looked at both emigration and immigration but focused on a single nation. Model parameterization for each of the migration models was accomplished through regression analysis using decadal data spanning the period 1960-2010. A similar approach was taken with acute migration dynamics except regression analysis utilized annual data sets limited to a shorter time horizon (2001-2013). The system dynamics spillover model was organized around two broad modules, one simulating the decision dynamics of migration and a second module that treats the changing environmental conditions that influence the migration decision. The environmental module informs the migration decision, endogenously simulating interactions/changes in the economy, labor, population, conflict, water, and food. A regional model focused on Mali in western Africa was used as a test case to demonstrate the efficacy of the model.
Energy production requires water, while the conveyance, storage, and treatment of water requires energy—this is the energy-water nexus. The importance of this nexus has recently been highlighted by droughts reducing hydropower production, heat waves impacting stream water temperatures forcing nuclear and coal-fired power plants to suspend operations, floods and hurricanes damaging energy infrastructure, and the denial of new power plant permits due to limited water availability. All this while the energy intensity of the water sector is increasing as water is moved from more distant locations and increasing water treatment is required. Tackling this energy-water nexus will require significant coordination between water and energy managers from the local to the federal level.
Tidwell, Vincent C.; Wolfsberg, Andrew W.; Macknick, Jordan M.; Middleton, Richard M.
In the Southwest and Southern Rocky Mountains (SWSRM), energy production, energy resource extraction, and other high volume uses depend on water supply from systems that are highly vulnerable to extreme, coupled hydro-ecosystem-climate events including prolonged drought, flooding, degrading snow cover, forest die off, and wildfire. These vulnerabilities, which increase under climate change, present a challenge for energy and resource planners in the region with the highest population growth rate in the nation. Currently, analytical tools are designed to address individual aspects of these regional energy and water vulnerabilities. Further, these tools are not linked, severely limiting the effectiveness of each individual tool. Linking established tools, which have varying degrees of spatial and temporal resolution as well as modeling objectives, and developing next-generation capabilities where needed would provide a unique and replicable platform for regional analyses of climate-water-ecosystem-energy interactions, while leveraging prior investments and current expertise (both within DOE and across other Federal agencies).
This paper is the output from SNL's involvement in the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA), the Colorado River Energy Distributors Association (CREDA), and the Upper Colo rado River Commission's (UCRC) sponsored Phase II work to establish market and non - market valu es (NMV's) of water and hydropower asso ciated with Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) operations and the Colorado River ecosystem. It describes the purpose and need to develop a systems model for the Colorado River Basin that includes valuations in the economic, hydrologic, environmental, social, and cultural sectors . It outlines the benefits and unique features associated with such a model and provides a roadmap of how a syste ms model would be developed and implemented. While not meant to serve as a full development plan, the ideas and concepts herein represent what the Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) research team believes is the most impac tful and effective path forward to address an ever increasing complex set of problems that occur at the basin - scale and beyond .
The purpose of this effort is to explore where the availability of water could be a limiting factor in the siting of new electric power generation. To support this analysis, water availability is mapped at the county level for the conterminous United States (3109 counties). Five water sources are individually considered, including unappropriated surface water, unappropriated groundwater, appropriated water (western U.S. only), municipal wastewater and brackish groundwater. Also mapped is projected growth in non-thermoelectric consumptive water demand to 2035. Finally, the water availability metrics are accompanied by estimated costs associated with utilizing that particular supply of water. Ultimately these data sets are being developed for use in the National Renewable Energy Laboratories' (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, designed to investigate the likely deployment of new energy installations in the U.S., subject to a number of constraints, particularly water.
Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) has important implications relative to future thermoelectric water use. A bounding analysis is performed using past greenhouse gas emission policy proposals and assumes either all effected capacity retires (lower water use bound) or is retrofitted (upper bound). The analysis is performed in the context of recent trends in electric power generation expansion, namely high penetration of natural gas and renewables along with constrained cooling system options. Results indicate thermoelectric freshwater withdrawals nationwide could increase by roughly 1% or decrease by up to 60% relative to 2009 levels, while consumption could increase as much as 21% or decrease as much as 28%. To identify where changes in freshwater use might be problematic at a regional level, electric power production has been mapped onto watersheds with limited water availability (where consumption exceeds 70% of gauged streamflow). Results suggest that between 0.44 and 0.96 Mm3/d of new thermoelectric freshwater consumption could occur in watersheds with limited water availability, while power plant retirements in these watersheds could yield 0.90 to 1.0 Mm3/d of water savings.
As large utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) facilities are currently being built and planned for locations in the U.S. with the greatest solar resource potential, an understanding of water use for construction and operations is needed as siting tends to target locations with low natural rainfall and where most existing freshwater is already appropriated. Using methods outlined by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to determine water used in designated solar energy zones (SEZs) for construction and operations & maintenance, an estimate of water used over the lifetime at the solar power plant is determined and applied to each watershed in six Southwestern states. Results indicate that that PV systems overall use little water, though construction usage is high compared to O&M water use over the lifetime of the facility. Also noted is a transition being made from wet cooled to dry cooled CSP facilities that will significantly reduce operational water use at these facilities. Using these water use factors, estimates of future water demand for current and planned solar development was made. In efforts to determine where water could be a limiting factor in solar energy development, water availability, cost, and projected future competing demands were mapped for the six Southwestern states. Ten watersheds, 9 in California, and one in New Mexico were identified as being of particular concern because of limited water availability.
Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.
Water resource management requires collaborative solutions that cross institutional and political boundaries. This work describes the development and use of a computer-based tool for assessing the impact of additional water allocation from the Gila River and the San Francisco River prescribed in the 2004 Arizona Water Settlements Act. Between 2005 and 2010, Sandia National Laboratories engaged concerned citizens, local water stakeholders, and key federal and state agencies to collaboratively create the Gila-San Francisco Decision Support Tool. Based on principles of system dynamics, the tool is founded on a hydrologic balance of surface water, groundwater, and their associated coupling between water resources and demands. The tool is fitted with a user interface to facilitate sensitivity studies of various water supply and demand scenarios. The model also projects the consumptive use of water in the region as well as the potential CUFA (Consumptive Use and Forbearance Agreement which stipulates when and where Arizona Water Settlements Act diversions can be made) diversion over a 26-year horizon. Scenarios are selected to enhance our understanding of the potential human impacts on the rivers ecological health in New Mexico; in particular, different case studies thematic to water conservation, water rights, and minimum flow are tested using the model. The impact on potential CUFA diversions, agricultural consumptive use, and surface water availability are assessed relative to the changes imposed in the scenarios. While it has been difficult to gage the acceptance level from the stakeholders, the technical information that the model provides are valuable for facilitating dialogues in the context of the new settlement.
Participatory modeling has become an important tool in facilitating resource decision making and dispute resolution. Approaches to modeling that are commonly used in this context often do not adequately account for important human factors. Current techniques provide insights into how certain human activities and variables affect resource outcomes; however, they do not directly simulate the complex variables that shape how, why, and under what conditions different human agents behave in ways that affect resources and human interactions related to them. Current approaches also do not adequately reveal how the effects of individual decisions scale up to have systemic level effects in complex resource systems. This lack of integration prevents the development of more robust models to support decision making and dispute resolution processes. Development of integrated tools is further hampered by the fact that collection of primary data for decision-making modeling is costly and time consuming. This project seeks to develop a new approach to resource modeling that incorporates both technical and behavioral modeling techniques into a single decision-making architecture. The modeling platform is enhanced by use of traditional and advanced processes and tools for expedited data capture. Specific objectives of the project are: (1) Develop a proof of concept for a new technical approach to resource modeling that combines the computational techniques of system dynamics and agent based modeling, (2) Develop an iterative, participatory modeling process supported with traditional and advance data capture techniques that may be utilized to facilitate decision making, dispute resolution, and collaborative learning processes, and (3) Examine potential applications of this technology and process. The development of this decision support architecture included both the engineering of the technology and the development of a participatory method to build and apply the technology. Stakeholder interaction with the model and associated data capture was facilitated through two very different modes of engagement, one a standard interface involving radio buttons, slider bars, graphs and plots, while the other utilized an immersive serious gaming interface. The decision support architecture developed through this project was piloted in the Middle Rio Grande Basin to examine how these tools might be utilized to promote enhanced understanding and decision-making in the context of complex water resource management issues. Potential applications of this architecture and its capacity to lead to enhanced understanding and decision-making was assessed through qualitative interviews with study participants who represented key stakeholders in the basin.
The nexus between thermoelectric power production and water use is not uniform across the U.S., but rather differs according to regional physiography, demography, power plant fleet composition, and the transmission network. That is, in some regions water demand for thermoelectric production is relatively small while in other regions it represents the dominate use. The later is the case for the Great Lakes region, which has important implications for the water resources and aquatic ecology of the Great Lakes watershed. This is today, but what about the future? Projected demographic trends, shifting lifestyles, and economic growth coupled with the threat of global climate change and mounting pressure for greater U.S. energy security could have profound effects on the region's energy future. Planning for such an uncertain future is further complicated by the fact that energy and environmental planning and regulatory decisionmaking is largely bifurcated in the region, with environmental and water resource concerns generally taken into account after new energy facilities and technologies have been proposed, or practices are already in place. Based on these confounding needs, the objective of this effort is to develop Great Lakes-specific methods and tools to integrate energy and water resource planning and thereby support the dual goals of smarter energy planning and development, and protection of Great Lakes water resources. Guiding policies for this planning are the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River Basin Water Resources Compact and the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement. The desired outcome of integrated energy-water-aquatic resource planning is a more sustainable regional energy mix for the Great Lakes basin ecosystem.
In 2011 the Department of Energy's Office of Electricity embarked on a comprehensive program to assist our Nation's three primary electric interconnections with long term transmission planning. Given the growing concern over water resources in the western U.S. the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) requested assistance with integrating water resource considerations into their broader electric transmission planning. The result is a project with three overarching objectives: (1) Develop an integrated Energy-Water Decision Support System (DSS) that will enable planners in the Western Interconnection to analyze the potential implications of water stress for transmission and resource planning. (2) Pursue the formulation and development of the Energy-Water DSS through a strongly collaborative process between the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), Western Governors Association (WGA), the Western States Water Council (WSWC) and their associated stakeholder teams. (3) Exercise the Energy-Water DSS to investigate water stress implications of the transmission planning scenarios put forward by WECC, WGA, and WSWC. The foundation for the Energy-Water DSS is Sandia National Laboratories Energy-Power-Water Simulation (EPWSim) model (Tidwell et al. 2009). The modeling framework targets the shared needs of energy and water producers, resource managers, regulators, and decision makers at the federal, state and local levels. This framework provides an interactive environment to explore trade-offs, and 'best' alternatives among a broad list of energy/water options and objectives. The decision support framework is formulated in a modular architecture, facilitating tailored analyses over different geographical regions and scales (e.g., state, county, watershed, interconnection). An interactive interface allows direct control of the model and access to real-time results displayed as charts, graphs and maps. The framework currently supports modules for calculating water withdrawal and consumption for current and planned electric power generation; projected water demand from competing use sectors; and, surface and groundwater availability. WECC's long range planning is organized according to two target planning horizons, a 10-year and a 20-year. This study supports WECC in the 10-year planning endeavor. In this case the water implications associated with four of WECC's alternative future study cases (described below) are calculated and reported. In future phases of planning we will work with WECC to craft study cases that aim to reduce the thermoelectric footprint of the interconnection and/or limit production in the most water stressed regions of the West.
Sandia National Laboratories and General Motors Global Energy Systems team conducted a joint biofuels systems analysis project from March to November 2008. The purpose of this study was to assess the feasibility, implications, limitations, and enablers of large-scale production of biofuels. 90 billion gallons of ethanol (the energy equivalent of approximately 60 billion gallons of gasoline) per year by 2030 was chosen as the book-end target to understand an aggressive deployment. Since previous studies have addressed the potential of biomass but not the supply chain rollout needed to achieve large production targets, the focus of this study was on a comprehensive systems understanding the evolution of the full supply chain and key interdependencies over time. The supply chain components examined in this study included agricultural land use changes, production of biomass feedstocks, storage and transportation of these feedstocks, construction of conversion plants, conversion of feedstocks to ethanol at these plants, transportation of ethanol and blending with gasoline, and distribution to retail outlets. To support this analysis, we developed a 'Seed to Station' system dynamics model (Biofuels Deployment Model - BDM) to explore the feasibility of meeting specified ethanol production targets. The focus of this report is water and its linkage to broad scale biofuel deployment.
Sandia National Laboratories and General Motors Global Energy Systems team conducted a joint biofuels systems analysis project from March to November 2008. The purpose of this study was to assess the feasibility, implications, limitations, and enablers of large-scale production of biofuels. 90 billion gallons of ethanol (the energy equivalent of approximately 60 billion gallons of gasoline) per year by 2030 was chosen as the book-end target to understand an aggressive deployment. Since previous studies have addressed the potential of biomass but not the supply chain rollout needed to achieve large production targets, the focus of this study was on a comprehensive systems understanding the evolution of the full supply chain and key interdependencies over time. The supply chain components examined in this study included agricultural land use changes, production of biomass feedstocks, storage and transportation of these feedstocks, construction of conversion plants, conversion of feedstocks to ethanol at these plants, transportation of ethanol and blending with gasoline, and distribution to retail outlets. To support this analysis, we developed a 'Seed to Station' system dynamics model (Biofuels Deployment Model - BDM) to explore the feasibility of meeting specified ethanol production targets. The focus of this report is water and its linkage to broad scale biofuel deployment.
Decisions made to address climate change must start with an understanding of the risk of an uncertain future to human systems, which in turn means understanding both the consequence as well as the probability of a climate induced impact occurring. In other words, addressing climate change is an exercise in risk-informed policy making, which implies that there is no single correct answer or even a way to be certain about a single answer; the uncertainty in future climate conditions will always be present and must be taken as a working-condition for decision making. In order to better understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions, this study estimates the impacts from responses to climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity by employing a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. Using the results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) as a proxy for climate uncertainty, changes in hydrology over the next 40 years were mapped and then modeled to determine the physical consequences on economic activity and to perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of the economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. The analysis determines industry-level effects, employment impacts at the state level, interstate population migration, consequences to personal income, and ramifications for the U.S. trade balance. The conclusions show that the average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs. Further analysis shows that an increase in uncertainty raises this risk. This paper will present the methodology behind the approach, a summary of the underlying models, as well as the path forward for improving the approach.
The Department of Energy's Office of Electricity has initiated a $60M program to assist the electric industry in interconnection-level analysis and planning. The objective of this effort is to facilitate the development or strengthening of capabilities in each of the three interconnections serving the lower 48 states of the United States, to prepare analyses of transmission requirements under a broad range of alternative futures and develop long-term interconnection-wide transmission expansion plans. The interconnections are the Western Interconnection, the Eastern Interconnection, and the Texas Interconnection. One element of this program address the support and development of an integrated energy-water Decision Support System (DSS) that will enable planners in the Western and Texas Interconnections to analyze the potential implications of water stress for transmission and resource planning (the Eastern Interconnection is not participating in this element). Specific objectives include: (1) Develop an integrated Energy-Water Decision Support System (DSS) that will enable planners in the Western and Texas Interconnections to analyze the potential implications of water stress for transmission and resource planning. (2) Pursue the formulation and development of the Energy-Water DSS through a strongly collaborative process between members of this proposal team and the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), Western Governors Association (WGA), the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and their associated stakeholder teams. (3) Exercise the Energy-Water DSS to investigate water stress implications of the transmission planning scenarios put forward by WECC, WGA, and ERCOT. The goals of this project are: (1) Develop an integrated Energy-Water Decision Support System (DSS) that will enable planners to analyze the potential implications of water stress for transmission and resource planning. (2) Pursue the formulation and development of the Energy-Water DSS through a strongly collaborative process between Western Electricity Coordinating Council, Electric Reliability Council of Texas, Western Governors Association, and Western States Water Council. (3) Exercise the Energy-Water DSS to investigate water transmission planning scenarios.
Recently, Sandia National Laboratories and General Motors cooperated on the development of the Biofuels Deployment Model (BDM) to assess the feasibility, implications, limitations, and enablers of producing 90 billion gallons of ethanol per year by 2030. Leveraging the past investment, a decision support model based on the BDM is being developed to assist investors, entrepreneurs, and decision makers in evaluating the costs and benefits associated with biofuels development in the U.S.-Mexico border region. Specifically, the model is designed to assist investors and entrepreneurs in assessing the risks and opportunities associated with alternative biofuels development strategies along the U.S.-Mexico border, as well as, assist local and regional decision makers in understanding the tradeoffs such development poses to their communities. The decision support model is developed in a system dynamics framework utilizing a modular architecture that integrates the key systems of feedstock production, transportation, and conversion. The model adopts a 30-year planning horizon, operating on an annual time step. Spatially the model is disaggregated at the county level on the U.S. side of the border and at the municipos level on the Mexican side. The model extent includes Luna, Hildalgo, Dona Anna, and Otero counties in New Mexico, El Paso and Hudspeth counties in Texas, and the four munipos along the U.S. border in Chihuahua. The model considers a variety of feedstocks; specifically, algae, gitropha, castor oil, and agricultural waste products from chili and pecans - identifying suitable lands for these feedstocks, possible yields, and required water use. The model also evaluates the carbon balance for each crop and provides insight into production costs including labor demands. Finally, the model is fitted with an interactive user interface comprised of a variety of controls (e.g., slider bars, radio buttons), descriptive text, and output graphics allowing stakeholders to directly explore the tradeoffs between alternative biofuels development scenarios.
This document outlines ways to more effectively communicate with U.S. Federal decision makers by outlining the structure, authority, and motivations of various Federal groups, how to find the trusted advisors, and how to structure communication. All three branches of Federal governments have decision makers engaged in resolving major policy issues. The Legislative Branch (Congress) negotiates the authority and the resources that can be used by the Executive Branch. The Executive Branch has some latitude in implementation and prioritizing resources. The Judicial Branch resolves disputes. The goal of all decision makers is to choose and implement the option that best fits the needs and wants of the community. However, understanding the risk of technical, political and/or financial infeasibility and possible unintended consequences is extremely difficult. Primarily, decision makers are supported in their deliberations by trusted advisors who engage in the analysis of options as well as the day-to-day tasks associated with multi-party negotiations. In the best case, the trusted advisors use many sources of information to inform the process including the opinion of experts and if possible predictive analysis from which they can evaluate the projected consequences of their decisions. The paper covers the following: (1) Understanding Executive and Legislative decision makers - What can these decision makers do? (2) Finding the target audience - Who are the internal and external trusted advisors? (3) Packaging the message - How do we parse and integrate information, and how do we use computer simulation or models in policy communication?
Currently, electrical power generation uses about 140 billion gallons of water per day accounting for over 39% of all freshwater withdrawals thus competing with irrigated agriculture as the leading user of water. Coupled to this water use is the required pumping, conveyance, treatment, storage and distribution of the water which requires on average 3% of all electric power generated. While water and energy use are tightly coupled, planning and management of these fundamental resources are rarely treated in an integrated fashion. Toward this need, a decision support framework has been developed that targets the shared needs of energy and water producers, resource managers, regulators, and decision makers at the federal, state and local levels. The framework integrates analysis and optimization capabilities to identify trade-offs, and 'best' alternatives among a broad list of energy/water options and objectives. The decision support framework is formulated in a modular architecture, facilitating tailored analyses over different geographical regions and scales (e.g., national, state, county, watershed, NERC region). An interactive interface allows direct control of the model and access to real-time results displayed as charts, graphs and maps. Ultimately, this open and interactive modeling framework provides a tool for evaluating competing policy and technical options relevant to the energy-water nexus.
IAMG 2009 - Computational Methods for the Earth, Energy and Environmental Sciences
Klise, Katherine A.; Mckenna, Sean A.; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Lane, Jonathan W.; Weissmann, Gary S.; Wawrzyniec, Tim F.; Nichols, Elizabeth M.
While connectivity is an important aspect of heterogeneous media, methods to measure and simulate connectivity are limited. For this study, we use natural aquifer analogs developed through lidar imagery to track the importance of connectivity on dispersion characteristics. A 221.8 cm by 50 cm section of a braided sand and gravel deposit of the Ceja Formation in Bernalillo County, New Mexico is selected for the study. The use of two-point (SISIM) and multipoint (Snesim and Filtersim) stochastic simulation methods are then compared based on their ability to replicate dispersion characteristics using the aquifer analog. Detailed particle tracking simulations are used to explore the streamline-based connectivity that is preserved using each method. Connectivity analysis suggests a strong relationship between the length distribution of sand and gravel facies along streamlines and dispersion characteristics.
Water quality often limits the potential uses of scarce water resources in semiarid and arid regions. To best manage water quality one must understand the sources and sinks of both solutes and water to the river system. Nutrient concentration patterns can identify source and sink locations, but cannot always determine biotic processes that affect nutrient concentrations. Modeling tools can provide insight into these large-scale processes. To address questions about large-scale nitrogen removal in the Middle Rio Grande, NM, we created a system dynamics nitrate model using an existing integrated surface water--groundwater model of the region to evaluate our conceptual models of uptake and denitrification as potential nitrate removal mechanisms. We modeled denitrification in groundwater as a first-order process dependent only on concentration and used a 5% denitrification rate. Uptake was assumed to be proportional to transpiration and was modeled as a percentage of the evapotranspiration calculated within the model multiplied by the nitrate concentration in the water being transpired. We modeled riparian uptake as 90% and agricultural uptake as 50% of the respective evapotranspiration rates. Using these removal rates, our model results suggest that riparian uptake, agricultural uptake and denitrification in groundwater are all needed to produce the observed nitrate concentrations in the groundwater, conveyance channels, and river as well as the seasonal concentration patterns. The model results indicate that a total of 497 metric tons of nitrate-N are removed from the Middle Rio Grande annually. Where river nitrate concentrations are low and there are no large nitrate sources, nitrate behaves nearly conservatively and riparian and agricultural uptake are the most important removal mechanisms. Downstream of a large wastewater nitrate source, denitrification and agricultural uptake were responsible for approximately 90% of the nitrogen removal.
Solute plumes are believed to disperse in a non-Fickian manner due to small-scale heterogeneity and variable velocities that create preferential pathways. In order to accurately predict dispersion in naturally complex geologic media, the connection between heterogeneity and dispersion must be better understood. Since aquifer properties can not be measured at every location, it is common to simulate small-scale heterogeneity with random field generators based on a two-point covariance (e.g., through use of sequential simulation algorithms). While these random fields can produce preferential flow pathways, it is unknown how well the results simulate solute dispersion through natural heterogeneous media. To evaluate the influence that complex heterogeneity has on dispersion, we utilize high-resolution terrestrial lidar to identify and model lithofacies from outcrop for application in particle tracking solute transport simulations using RWHet. The lidar scan data are used to produce a lab (meter) scale two-dimensional model that captures 2-8 mm scale natural heterogeneity. Numerical simulations utilize various methods to populate the outcrop structure captured by the lidar-based image with reasonable hydraulic conductivity values. The particle tracking simulations result in residence time distributions used to evaluate the nature of dispersion through complex media. Particle tracking simulations through conductivity fields produced from the lidar images are then compared to particle tracking simulations through hydraulic conductivity fields produced from sequential simulation algorithms. Based on this comparison, the study aims to quantify the difference in dispersion when using realistic and simplified representations of aquifer heterogeneity.
The complexity of water resource issues, its interconnectedness to other systems, and the involvement of competing stakeholders often overwhelm decision-makers and inhibit the creation of clear management strategies. While a range of modeling tools and procedures exist to address these problems, they tend to be case specific and generally emphasize either a quantitative and overly analytic approach or present a qualitative dialogue-based approach lacking the ability to fully explore consequences of different policy decisions. The integration of these two approaches is needed to drive toward final decisions and engender effective outcomes. Given these limitations, the Computer Assisted Dispute Resolution system (CADRe) was developed to aid in stakeholder inclusive resource planning. This modeling and negotiation system uniquely addresses resource concerns by developing a spatially varying system dynamics model as well as innovative global optimization search techniques to maximize outcomes from participatory dialogues. Ultimately, the core system architecture of CADRe also serves as the cornerstone upon which key scientific innovation and challenges can be addressed.
Public mediated resource planning is quickly becoming the norm rather than the exception. Unfortunately, supporting tools are lacking that interactively engage the public in the decision-making process and integrate over the myriad values that influence water policy. In the pages of this report we document the first steps toward developing a specialized decision framework to meet this need; specifically, a modular and generic resource-planning ''toolbox''. The technical challenge lies in the integration of the disparate systems of hydrology, ecology, climate, demographics, economics, policy and law, each of which influence the supply and demand for water. Specifically, these systems, their associated processes, and most importantly the constitutive relations that link them must be identified, abstracted, and quantified. For this reason, the toolbox forms a collection of process modules and constitutive relations that the analyst can ''swap'' in and out to model the physical and social systems unique to their problem. This toolbox with all of its modules is developed within the common computational platform of system dynamics linked to a Geographical Information System (GIS). Development of this resource-planning toolbox represents an important foundational element of the proposed interagency center for Computer Aided Dispute Resolution (CADRe). The Center's mission is to manage water conflict through the application of computer-aided collaborative decision-making methods. The Center will promote the use of decision-support technologies within collaborative stakeholder processes to help stakeholders find common ground and create mutually beneficial water management solutions. The Center will also serve to develop new methods and technologies to help federal, state and local water managers find innovative and balanced solutions to the nation's most vexing water problems. The toolbox is an important step toward achieving the technology development goals of this center.
Time domain reflectometry (TDR) operates by propagating a radar frequency electromagnetic pulse down a transmission line while monitoring the reflected signal. As the electromagnetic pulse propagates along the transmission line, it is subject to impedance by the dielectric properties of the media along the transmission line (e.g., air, water, and sediment), reflection at dielectric discontinuities (e.g., air-water or water-sediment interface), and attenuation by electrically conductive materials (e.g., salts and clays). Taken together, these characteristics provide a basis for integrated stream monitoring, specifically, concurrent measurement of stream stage, channel profile, and aqueous conductivity. Requisite for such application is a means of extracting the desired stream parameters from measured TDR traces. Analysis is complicated by the fact that interface location and aqueous conductivity vary concurrently and multiple interfaces may be present at any time. For this reason a physically based multisection model employing the S11 scatter function and Debeye parameters for dielectric dispersion and loss is used to analyze acquired TDR traces. Here we explore the capability of this multisection modeling approach for interpreting TDR data acquired from complex environments, such as encountered in stream monitoring. A series of laboratory tank experiments was performed in which the depth of water, depth of sediment, and conductivity were varied systematically. Comparisons between modeled and independently measured data indicate that TDR measurements can be made with an accuracy of {+-} 3.4 x 10{sup -3} m for sensing the location of an air-water or water-sediment interface and {+-} 7.4% of actual for the aqueous conductivity.
How might the quality of a city's delivered water be compromised through natural or malevolent causes? What are the consequences of a contamination event? What water utility assets are at greatest risk to compromise? Utility managers have been scrambling to find answers to these questions since the events of 9/11. However, even before this date utility mangers were concerned with the potential for system contamination through natural or accidental causes. Unfortunately, an integrated tool for assessing both the threat of attack/failure and the subsequent consequence is lacking. To help with this problem we combine Markov Latent Effects modeling for performing threat assessment calculations with the widely used pipe hydraulics/transport code, EPANET, for consequences analysis. Together information from these models defines the risk posed to the public due to natural or malevolent contamination of a water utility system. Here, this risk assessment framework is introduced and demonstrated within the context of vulnerability assessment for water distribution systems.
Time domain reflectometry (TDR) operates by propagating a radar frequency electromagnetic pulse down a transmission line while monitoring the reflected signal. As the electromagnetic pulse propagates along the transmission line, it is subject to impedance by the dielectric properties of the media along the transmission line (e.g., air, water, sediment), reflection at dielectric discontinuities (e.g., air-water or water-sediment interface), and attenuation by electrically conductive materials (e.g., salts, clays). Taken together, these characteristics provide a basis for integrated stream monitoring; specifically, concurrent measurement of stream stage, channel profile and aqueous conductivity. Here, we make novel application of TDR within the context of stream monitoring. Efforts toward this goal followed three critical phases. First, a means of extracting the desired stream parameters from measured TDR traces was required. Analysis was complicated by the fact that interface location and aqueous conductivity vary concurrently and multiple interfaces may be present at any time. For this reason a physically based multisection model employing the S11 scatter function and Cole-Cole parameters for dielectric dispersion and loss was developed to analyze acquired TDR traces. Second, we explored the capability of this multisection modeling approach for interpreting TDR data acquired from complex environments, such as encountered in stream monitoring. A series of laboratory tank experiments were performed in which the depth of water, depth of sediment, and conductivity were varied systematically. Comparisons between modeled and independently measured data indicate that TDR measurements can be made with an accuracy of {+-}3.4x10{sup -3} m for sensing the location of an air/water or water/sediment interface and {+-}7.4% of actual for the aqueous conductivity. Third, monitoring stations were sited on the Rio Grande and Paria rivers to evaluate performance of the TDR system under normal field conditions. At the Rio Grande site (near Central Bridge in Albuquerque, New Mexico) continuous monitoring of stream stage and aqueous conductivity was performed for 6 months. Additionally, channel profile measurements were acquired at 7 locations across the river. At the Paria site (near Lee's Ferry, Arizona) stream stage and aqueous conductivity data were collected over a 4-month period. Comparisons drawn between our TDR measurements and USGS gage data indicate that the stream stage is accurate within {+-}0.88 cm, conductivity is accurate within {+-}11% of actual, and channel profile measurements agree within {+-}1.2 cm.
Social and ecological scientists emphasize that effective natural resource management depends in part on understanding the dynamic relationship between the physical and non-physical process associated with resource consumption. In this case, the physical processes include hydrological, climatological and ecological dynamics, and the non-physical process include social, economic and cultural dynamics among humans who do the resource consumption. This project represents a case study aimed at modeling coupled social and physical processes in a single decision support system. In central New Mexico, individual land use decisions over the past five decades have resulted in the gradual transformation of the Middle Rio Grande Valley from a primarily rural agricultural landscape to a largely urban one. In the arid southwestern U.S., the aggregate impact of individual decisions about land use is uniquely important to understand, because scarce hydrological resources will likely limit the viability of resulting growth and development trajectories. This decision support tool is intended to help planners in the area look forward in their efforts to create a collectively defined 'desired' social landscape in the Middle Rio Grande. Our research question explored the ways in which socio-cultural values impact decisions regarding that landscape and associated land use. Because of the constraints hydrological resources place on land use, we first assumed that water use, as embodied in water rights, was a reasonable surrogate for land use. We thought that modeling the movement of water rights over time and across water source types (surface and ground) would provide planners with insight into the possibilities for certain types of decisions regarding social landscapes, and the impact those same decisions would have on those landscapes. We found that water rights transfer data in New Mexico is too incomplete and inaccurate to use as the basis for the model. Furthermore, because of its lack of accuracy and completeness, water rights ownership was a poor indicator of water and land usage habits and patterns. We also found that commitment among users in the Middle Rio Grande Valley is to an agricultural lifestyle, not to a community or place. This commitment is conditioned primarily by generational cohort and past experience. If conditions warrant, many would be willing to practice the lifestyle elsewhere. A related finding was that sometimes the pressure to sell was not the putative price of the land, but the taxes on the land. These taxes were, in turn, a function of the level of urbanization of the neighborhood. This urbanization impacted the quality of the agricultural lifestyle. The project also yielded some valuable lessons regarding the model development process. A facilitative and collaborative style (rather than a top-down, directive style) was most productive with the inter-disciplinary , inter-institutional team that worked on the project. This allowed for the emergence of a process model which combined small, discipline- and/or task-specific subgroups with larger, integrating team meetings. The project objective was to develop a model that could be used to run test scenarios in which we explored the potential impact of different policy options. We achieved that objective, although not with the level of success or modeling fidelity which we had hoped for. This report only describes very superficially the results of test scenarios, since more complete analysis of scenarios would require more time and effort. Our greatest obstacle in the successful completion of the project was that required data were sparse, of poor quality, or completely nonexistent. Moreover, we found no similar modeling or research efforts taking place at either the state or local level. This leads to a key finding of this project: that state and local policy decisions regarding land use, development, urbanization, and water resource allocation are being made with minimal data and without the benefit of economic or social policy analysis.
Water resource scarcity around the world is driving the need for the development of simulation models that can assist in water resources management. Transboundary water resources are receiving special attention because of the potential for conflict over scarce shared water resources. The Rio Grande/Rio Bravo along the U.S./Mexican border is an example of a scarce, transboundary water resource over which conflict has already begun. The data collection and modeling effort described in this report aims at developing methods for international collaboration, data collection, data integration and modeling for simulating geographically large and diverse international watersheds, with a special focus on the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo. This report describes the basin, and the data collected. This data collection effort was spatially aggregated across five reaches consisting of Fort Quitman to Presidio, the Rio Conchos, Presidio to Amistad Dam, Amistad Dam to Falcon Dam, and Falcon Dam to the Gulf of Mexico. This report represents a nine-month effort made in FY04, during which time the model was not completed.