Risk Management Framework for NFC
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This report summarizes the work performed as part of a Laboratory Directed Research and Development project focused on evaluating and mitigating risk associated with biological dual use research of concern. The academic and scientific community has identified the funding stage as the appropriate place to intervene and mitigate risk, so the framework developed here uses a portfolio-level approach and balances biosafety and biosecurity risks, anticipated project benefits, and available mitigations to identify the best available investment strategies subject to cost constraints. The modeling toolkit was designed for decision analysis for dual use research of concern, but is flexible enough to support a wide variety of portfolio-level funding decisions where risk/benefit tradeoffs are involved. Two mathematical optimization models with two solution methods are included to accommodate stakeholders with varying levels of certainty about priorities between metrics. An example case study is presented.
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Rinderpest is a virus that can affect cattle and other even toes ungulates; evidence of outbreaks from over 10,000 years ago highlights the potential impact of this virus. During the 18th century, Rinderpest caused huge losses in cattle throughout Europe. Starting in the mid 1900’s vaccination efforts seemed feasible and work was initiated to vaccinate large populations of cattle. Walter Plowright received numerous awards for updating the Rinderpest vaccine which many believed would be the key to eradication. Vaccination of the disease lead to a massive drop in outbreaks and the last confirmed case of Rinderpest in Asia was in 2000 and in Africa in 2001.1 At this point, Rinderpest has been declared eradicated from nature. However, stocks of the virus are still in many laboratories.2 Rinderpest was investigated as a biological weapon agent during the Second World War. However, following WWII, rinderpest was not considered a high risk as a biological weapon as there was no direct military advantage. Now, with the concern of the use of biological agents as weapons in acts of terrorism, concern regarding rinderpest has resurfaced. Since the eradication of this virus, cattle populations are highly susceptibility to the virus and the economic impacts would be significant. This paper will discuss the specific nature of the terrorism risks associated with rinderpest; and based upon those risks provide recommendations regarding biosecurity management. The biosecurity management measures will be defined in a manner to align with the CWA 15793: the laboratory biorisk management document.
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