Based on the rationale presented, nuclear criticality is improbable after salt creep causes compaction of criticality control overpacks (CCOs) disposed at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, an operating repository in bedded salt for the disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste from atomic energy defense activities. For most TRU waste, the possibility of post-closure criticality is exceedingly small either because the salt neutronically isolates TRU waste canisters or because closure of a disposal room from salt creep does not sufficiently compact the low mass of fissile material. The criticality potential has been updated here because of the introduction of CCOs, which may dispose up to 380 fissile gram equivalent plutonium-239 in each container. The criticality potential is evaluated through high-fidelity geomechanical modeling of a disposal room filled with CCOs during two representative conditions: (1) large salt block fall, and (2) gradual salt compaction (without brine seepage and subsequent gas generation to permit maximum room closure). Geomechanical models of rock fall demonstrate three tiers of CCOs are not greatly disrupted. Geomechanical models of gradual room closure from salt creep predict irregular arrays of closely packed CCOs after 1000 years, when room closure has asymptotically approached maximum compaction. Criticality models of spheres and cylinders of 380 fissile gram equivalent of plutonium (as oxide) at the predicted irregular spacing demonstrate that an array of CCOs is not critical when surrounded by salt and magnesium oxide, provided the amount of hydrogenous material shipped in the CCO (usually water and plastics) is controlled or boron carbide (a neutron poison) is mixed with the fissile contents.
Management of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste consists of three main phases – storage, transportation, and disposal – commonly referred to as the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle. Current practice for commercial spent nuclear fuel management in the United States (US) includes temporary storage of spent fuel in both pools and dry storage systems at operating or shutdown nuclear power plants. Storage pools are filling to their operational capacity, and management of the approximately 2,200 metric tons of spent fuel newly discharged each year requires transferring older and cooler spent fuel from pools into dry storage. Unless a repository becomes available that can accept spent fuel for permanent disposal, projections indicate that the US will have approximately 136,000 metric tons of spent fuel in dry storage systems by mid-century, when the last plants in the current reactor fleet are decommissioned. Current designs for dry storage systems rely on large multi-assembly canisters, the most common of which are so-called “dual-purpose canisters” (DPCs). DPCs are certified for both storage and transportation, but are not designed or licensed for permanent disposal. The large capacity (greater number of spent fuel assemblies) of these canisters can lead to higher canister temperatures, which can delay transportation and/or complicate disposal. This current management practice, in which the utilities continue loading an ever-increasing inventory of larger DPCs, does not emphasize integration among storage, transportation, and disposal. This lack of integration does not cause safety issues, but it does lead to a suboptimal system that increases costs, complicates storage and transportation operations, and limits options for permanent disposal. This paper describes strategies for improving integration of management practices in the US across the entire back end of the nuclear fuel cycle. The complex interactions between storage, transportation, and disposal make a single optimal solution unlikely. However, efforts to integrate various phases of nuclear waste management can have the greatest impact if they begin promptly and continue to evolve throughout the remaining life of the current fuel cycle. A key factor that influences the path forward for integration of nuclear waste management practices is the identification of the timing and location for a repository. The most cost-effective path forward would be to open a repository by mid-century with the capability to directly dispose of DPCs without repackaging the spent fuel into disposalready canisters. Options that involve repackaging of spent fuel from DPCs into disposalready canisters or that delay the repository opening significantly beyond mid-century could add 10s of billions of dollars to the total system life cycle cost.
This report represents completion of milestone deliverable M2SF-21SN010309012 “Annual Status Update for OWL and Waste Form Characteristics” that provides an annual update on status of fiscal year (FY 2020) activities for the work package SF-20SN01030901 and is due on January 29, 2021. The Online Waste Library (OWL) has been designed to contain information regarding United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE)-managed (as) high-level waste (DHLW), spent nuclear fuel (SNF), and other wastes that are likely candidates for deep geologic disposal, with links to the current supporting documents for the data (when possible; note that no classified or official-use-only (OUO) data are planned to be included in OWL). There may be up to several hundred different DOE-managed wastes that are likely to require deep geologic disposal. This draft report contains versions of the OWL model architecture for vessel information (Appendix A) and an excerpt from the OWL User’s Guide (Appendix B and SNL 2020), which are for the current OWL Version 2.0 on the Sandia External Collaboration Network (ECN).
The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) facility is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) operating repository 654 m below the surface in a thick salt formation in southeastern New Mexico. The DOE disposes transuranic (TRU) waste produced from atomic energy defense activities at the WIPP facility. A portion of the waste shipped to the WIPP facility contains TRU radionuclides co-mingled with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), which fall under U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations implementing the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA). This report documents the risks of PCBs co-mingled with TRU waste (hereafter designated as PCB/TRU waste) designated for disposal at the WIPP facility. This analysis is input to the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) assessment by the DOE Carlsbad Field Office (CBFO) for the proposed increase of the WIPP facility disposal area to include additional waste panels (but not to increase the legislated WIPP volume). This analysis is not a compliance calculation to support a certification renewal nor does it support a planned change request (PCR) or planned change notice (PCN) to be submitted to the EPA.
This report represents completion of milestone deliverable M2SF-19SNO10309013 "Online Waste Library (OWL) and Waste Forms Characteristics Annual Report" that reports annual status on fiscal year (FY) 2019 activities for the work package SF-19SN01030901 and is due on August 2, 2019. The online waste library (OWL) has been designed to contain information regarding United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE)-managed (as) high-level waste (DHLW), spent nuclear fuel (SNF), and other wastes that are likely candidates for deep geologic disposal, with links to the current supporting documents for the data (when possible; note that no classified or official-use-only (OUO) data are planned to be included in OWL). There may be up to several hundred different DOE-managed wastes that are likely to require deep geologic disposal. This annual report on FY2019 activities includes evaluations of waste form characteristics and waste form performance models, updates to the OWL development, and descriptions of the management processes for the OWL. Updates to the OWL include an updated user's guide, additions to the OWL database content for wastes and waste forms, results of the beta testing and changes implemented from it. Also added are descriptions of the management/control processes for the OWL development, version control, and archiving. These processes have been implemented as part of the full production release of OWL (i.e., OWL Version 1.0), which has been developed on, and will be hosted and managed on, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) systems. The version control/update processes will be implemented for updates to the OWL in the future. Additionally, another process covering methods for interfacing with the DOE SNF Database (DOE 2007) at Idaho National Laboratory on the numerous entries for DOE-managed SNF (DSNF) has been pushed forward by defining data exchanges and is planned to be implemented sometime in FY2020. The INL database is also sometimes referred to as the Spent Fuel Database or the SFDB, which is the acronym that will be used in this report. Once fully implemented, this integration effort will serve as a template for interfacing with additional databases throughout the DOE complex.
This paper describes the fissile mass and concentration necessary for a critical event to occur outside containers disposed in a bedded salt repository. The criticality limits are based on modeling mixtures of water, salt, dolomite, concrete, rust, and fissile material using a neutron/photon transport computational code. Several idealized depositional configurations of fissile material in the host rock are analyzed: homogeneous spheres and heterogeneous arrangements of plate fractures in regular arrays. Deposition of large masses and concentrations are required for criticality to occur for low enriched 235U enrichment. Homogeneous mixtures with deposition in all the porosity are more reactive at high enrichments of 235U and 239Pu. However, unlike typical engineered systems, heterogeneous configurations can be more reactive than homogeneous systems at high enrichment when deposition occurs in only a portion of the porosity and the total porosity is small, because the relationship between the porosity of the fractures and matrix also strongly influences the results.
This report represents completion of milestone deliverable M2SF-18SNO10309013 "Inventory and Waste Characterization Status Report and OWL Update that reports on FY2018 activities for the work package (WP) SF-18SNO1030901. This report provides the detailed final information for completed FY2018 work activities for WP SF-18SN01030901, and a summary of priorities for FY2019. This status report on FY2018 activities includes evaluations of waste form characteristics and waste form performance models, updates to the OWL development, and descriptions of the two planned management processes for the OWL. Updates to the OWL include an updated user's guide, additions to the OWL database content for wastes and waste forms, results of the Beta testing and changes implemented from it. There are two processes being planned in FY2018, which will be implemented in FY2019. One process covers methods for interfacing with the DOE SNF DB (DOE 2007) at INL on the numerous entries for DOE managed SNF, and the other process covers the management of updates to, and version control/archiving of, the OWL database. In FY2018, we have pursued three studies to evaluate/redefine waste form characteristics and/or performance models. First characteristic isotopic ratios for various waste forms included in postclosure performance studies are being evaluated to delineate isotope ratio tags that quantitatively identify each particular waste form. This evaluation arose due to questions regarding the relative contributions of radionuclides from disparate waste forms in GDSA results, particularly, radionuclide contributions of DOE-managed SNF vs HLW glass. In our second study we are evaluating the bases of glass waste degradation rate models to the HIP calcine waste form. The HIP calcine may likely be a ceramic matrix material, with multiple ceramic phases with/without a glass phase. The ceramic phases are likely to have different degradation performance from the glass portion. The distribution of radionuclides among those various phases may also be a factor in the radionuclide release rates. Additionally, we have an ongoing investigation of the performance behavior of TRISO particle fuels and are developing a stochastic model for the degradation of those fuels that accounts for simultaneous corrosion of the silicon carbide (SiC) layer and radionuclide diffusion through it. The detailed model of the TRISO particles themselves, will be merged with models of the degradation behavior(s) of the graphite matrix (either prismatic compacts or spherical "pebbles") containing the particles and the hexagonal graphite elements holding the compacts.
The experimental breeder reactor (EBR-II) used fuel with a layer of sodium surrounding the uranium-zirconium fuel to improve heat transfer. Disposing of EBR-II fuel in a geologic repository without treatment is not prudent because of the potentially energetic reaction of the sodium with water. In 2000, the US Department of Energy (DOE) decided to treat the sodium-bonded fuel with an electrorefiner (ER), which produces metallic uranium product, a metallic waste, mostly from the cladding, and the salt waste in the ER, which contains most of the actinides and fission products. Two waste forms were proposed for disposal in a mined repository; the metallic waste, which was to be cast into ingots, and the ER salt waste, which was to be further treated to produce a ceramic waste form. However, alternative disposal pathways for metallic and salt waste streams may reduce the complexity. For example, performance assessments show that geologic repositories can easily accommodate the ER salt waste without treating it to form a ceramic waste form. Because EBR-II was used for atomic energy defense activities, the treated waste likely meets the definition of transuranic waste. Hence, disposal at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in southern New Mexico, may be feasible. This report reviews the direct disposal pathway for ER salt waste and describes eleven tasks necessary for implementing disposal at WIPP, provided space is available, DOE decides to use this alternative disposal pathway in an updated environmental impact statement, and the State of New Mexico grants permission.
This report provides an update to Sassani et al. (2016) and includes: (1) an updated set of inputs (Sections 2.3) on various additional waste forms (WF) covering both DOE-managed spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and DOE-managed (as) high-level waste (HLW) for use in the inventory represented in the geologic disposal safety analyses (GDSA); (2) summaries of evaluations initiated to refine specific characteristics of particular WF for future use (Section 2.4); (3) updated development status of the Online Waste Library (OWL) database (Section 3.1.2) and an updated user guide to OWL (Section 3.1.3); and (4) status updates (Section 3.2) for the OWL inventory content, data entry checking process, and external OWL BETA testing initiated in fiscal year 2017.
Jenkins-Smith, Hank C.; Silva, Carol, L.; Gupta, Kuhika G.; Rechard, Robert P.
This report presents the questions and responses to a nationwide survey taken June 2016 to track preferences of US residents concerning the environment, energy, and radioactive waste management. A focus of the 2016 survey is public perceptions on different options for managing spent nuclear fuel, including on-site storage, interim storage, deep boreholes, general purpose geologic repositories, and geologic repositories for only defense-related waste. Highlights of the survey results include the following: (1) public attention to the 2011 accident and subsequent cleanup at the Fukushima nuclear facility continues to influence the perceived balance of risk and benefit for nuclear energy; (2) the incident at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in 2014 could influence future public support for nuclear waste management; (3) public knowledge about US nuclear waste management policies has remined higher than seen prior to the Fukushima nuclear accident and submittal of the Yucca Mountain application; (6) support for a mined disposal facility is higher than for deep borehole disposal, building one more interim storage facilities, or continued on-site storage of spent nuclear fuel; (7) support for a repository that comingles commercial and defense related waste is higher than for a repository for only defense related waste; (8) the public’s level of trust accorded to the National Academies, university scientists, and local emergency responders is the highest and the level trust accorded to advocacy organizations, public utilities, and local/national press is the lowest; and (9) the public is willing to serve on citizens panels but, in general, will only modestly engage in issues related to radioactive waste management.
The Waste Form Disposal Options Evaluation Report (SNL 2014) evaluated disposal of both Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel (CSNF) and DOE-managed HLW and Spent Nuclear Fuel (DHLW and DSNF) in the variety of disposal concepts being evaluated within the Used Fuel Disposition Campaign. That work covered a comprehensive inventory and a wide range of disposal concepts. The primary goal of this work is to evaluate the information needs for analyzing disposal solely of a subset of those wastes in a Defense Repository (DRep; i.e., those wastes that are either defense related, or managed by DOE but are not commercial in origin). A potential DRep also appears to be safe in the range of geologic mined repository concepts, but may have different concepts and features because of the very different inventory of waste that would be included. The focus of this status report is to cover the progress made in FY16 toward: (1) developing a preliminary DRep included inventory for engineering/design analyses; (2) assessing the major differences of this included inventory relative to that in other analyzed repository systems and the potential impacts to disposal concepts; (3) designing and developing an on-line waste library (OWL) to manage the information of all those wastes and their waste forms (including CSNF if needed); and (4) constraining post-closure waste form degradation performance for safety assessments of a DRep. In addition, some continuing work is reported on identifying potential candidate waste types/forms to be added to the full list from SNL (2014 – see Table C-1) which also may be added to the OWL in the future. The status for each of these aspects is reported herein.
The subject report from High Bridge Associates (HBA) was issued on March 2, 2016, in reaction to a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) program decision to pursue down-blending of surplus Pu and geologic disposal at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Sandia National Laboratories was requested by the DOE to review the technical arguments presented in the HBA report. Specifically, this review is organized around three technical topics: criticality safety, radiological release limits, and thermal impacts. Questions raised by the report pertaining to legal and regulatory requirements, safeguards and security, international agreements, and costing of alternatives, are beyond the scope of this review.
The Bureau of Land Management (BLM), US Department of the Interior has asked Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to perform scientific studies relevant to technical issues that arise in the development of co-located resources of potash and petroleum in southeastern New Mexico in the Secretary’s Potash Area. The BLM manages resource development, issues permits and interacts with the State of New Mexico in the process of developing regulations, in an environment where many issues are disputed by industry stakeholders. The present report is a deliverable of the study of the potential for gas migration from a wellbore to a mine opening in the event of wellbore leakage, a risk scenario about which there is disagreement among stakeholders and little previous site specific analysis. One goal of this study was to develop a framework that required collaboratively developed inputs and analytical approaches in order to encourage stakeholder participation and to employ ranges of data values and scenarios. SNL presents here a description of a basic risk assessment (RA) framework that will fulfill the initial steps of meeting that goal. SNL used the gas migration problem to set up example conceptual models, parameter sets and computer models and as a foundation for future development of RA to support BLM resource development.
Over 25 years, scientists and engineers designed engineered features to complement attributes of the natural barrier of volcanic tuff at Yucca Mountain in southern Nevada such that a proposed repository in the unsaturated zone would safely isolate spent nuclear fuel and highlevel radioactive waste over 106 years. Initially in 1983, an engineered barrier design applicable to several geologic media was used. With the Congressional direction to characterize Yucca Mountain, the engineered design gradually adapted to conditions in unsaturated tuff in the 1990s. The repository switched from floor emplacement of waste in small, single-walled stainless steel canisters to in-drift emplacement in large, double-layered containers. By 2000, the outer layer was high-nickel alloy to resist corrosion and the inner layer was stainless steel for strength. To avoid localized corrosion during the ∼1000-yr thermal period, titanium drip shields were also added above the containers. By 2008, a modular design of the repository was used for flexibility. In general, flexibility in accommodating various waste forms has been an intended attribute of geologic disposal system designs, rather than tuning the disposal system to specific characteristics of waste durability. The degradation rate of the radioactive waste matrix was an important parameter of the source-term in early modeling analysis. However, by the mid 1990s, analyses used fairly rapid degradation rates within the oxygenated environment of the unsaturated zone. Other components of the multiple barrier disposal system compensated for high degradation rates.
The results described in this report are an analysis of nationwide surveys, administered between 2006 and 2015, which measure preferences of US residents concerning the environment and energy sources. The Energy & Environment (EE) survey series is conducted annually by the Center for Energy, Security & Society (CES&S), a joint research collaboration of the University of Oklahoma and Sandia National Laboratories. The annual EE survey series is designed to track evolving public views on nuclear materials management in the US. The 2015 wave of the Energy and Environment survey (EE15) was implemented using a web-based questionnaire, and was completed by 2,021 respondents using an Internet sample that matches the characteristics of the adult US population as estimated in the US Census. A special focus of the EE15 survey is how survey respondents understand and evaluate “consent” in the context of the storage and transportation of spent nuclear fuel (SNF). This report presents an overview of key results from analyses of questions related to consent-based siting and other elements of the nuclear energy fuel cycle.
This report presents a concise history in tabular form of events leading up to site identification in 1978, site selection in 1987, subsequent characterization, and ongoing analysis through 2009 of the performance of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high - level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain in southern Nevada. The tabulated events generally occurred in five periods: (1) commitment to mined geologic disposal and identification of sites; (2) site selection and analysis, based on regional geologic characterization through literature and analogous data; (3) feasibility analysis demonstrating calculation procedures and importance of system components, based on rough measures of performance using surface exploration, waste process knowledge, and general laboratory experiments; (4) suitability analysis demonstrating viability of disposal system, based on environment - specific laboratory experiments, in - situ experiments, and underground disposal system characterization; and (5) compliance analysis, based on completed site - specific characterization . The current sixth period beyond 2010 represents a new effort to set waste management policy in the United States. Because the relationship is important to understanding the evolution of the Yucca Mountain Project , the tabulation also shows the interaction between the policy realm and technical realm using four broad categories of events : (a) Regulatory requirements and related federal policy in laws and court decisions, (c) Presidential and agency directives, (c) technical milestones of implementing institutions, and (d) critiques of the Yucca Mountain Project and pertinent national and world events related to nuclear energy and radioactive waste. Preface The historical progression of technical milestones for the Yucca Mountain Project was originally developed for 10 journal articles in a special issue of Reliability Engineering System Safety on the performance assessment for the Yucca Mountain license application [1-10]. The listing of mile stones, a distinct feature of those articles, has been collected and tabulated here. A lthough a brief description is presented here (based on the summaries in the 10 journal articles), the emphasis remains on the tabulation because of its usefulness in providing a comprehensive but concise history of the Yucca Mountain Project. The tabulation presented here is more elaborate than originally presented in that many of the interactions that occurred between the technical realm and policy realm can be depicted in separate columns. The usefulness of the milestones table is due in part to L.A. Connolly, for editorial and reference support, and S.K. Best, Raytheon, and L. Mays, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), for illustration support. Reviewers P.N. Swift, SNL, and K. Gupta, University of Oklahoma, helped improve the discussion. The historical perspective presented is that of the author and is not necessarily held by reviewers, Sandia National Laboratories , and the US Department of Energy. As a historic perspective, the author is reporting on the work of others; however, any interpretative error s of the documentation are those of the author alone. The characterization and modeling of the Yucca Mountain disposal system required numerous participants with expertise in many areas of science and technology, as evident from the extensive reference list. Their diligent efforts are generally acknowledged here and through the many references to their impressive work, but the 10 journal articles acknowledge by name many of the numerous participants that contributed to the Yucca Mountain Project .
The theme of the paper is that consolidated interim storage can provide an important integrating function between storage and disposal in the United States. Given the historical tension between consolidated interim storage and disposal in the United States, this paper articulates a rationale for consolidated interim storage. However, the paper concludes more effort could be expended on developing the societal aspects of the rationale, in addition to the technical and operational aspects of using consolidated interim storage.
The safe transport of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste is an important aspect of the waste management system of the United States. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) currently certifies spent nuclear fuel rail cask designs based primarily on numerical modeling of hypothetical accident conditions augmented with some small scale testing. However, NRC initiated a Package Performance Study (PPS) in 2001 to examine the response of full-scale rail casks in extreme transportation accidents. The objectives of PPS were to demonstrate the safety of transportation casks and to provide high-fidelity data for validating the modeling. Although work on the PPS eventually stopped, the Blue Ribbon Commission on America’s Nuclear Future recommended in 2012 that the test plans be re-examined. This recommendation was in recognition of substantial public feedback calling for a full-scale severe accident test of a rail cask to verify evaluations by NRC, which find that risk from the transport of spent fuel in certified casks is extremely low. This report, which serves as the re-assessment, provides a summary of the history of the PPS planning, identifies the objectives and technical issues that drove the scope of the PPS, and presents a possible path for moving forward in planning to conduct a full-scale cask test. Because full-scale testing is expensive, the value of such testing on public perceptions and public acceptance is important. Consequently, the path forward starts with a public perception component followed by two additional components: accident simulation and first responder training. The proposed path forward presents a series of study options with several points where the package performance study could be redirected if warranted.
This report examines the current policy, legal, and regulatory framework pertaining to used nuclear fuel and high level waste management in the United States. The goal is to identify potential changes that if made could add flexibility and possibly improve the chances of successfully implementing technical aspects of a nuclear waste policy. Experience suggests that the regulatory framework should be established prior to initiating future repository development. Concerning specifics of the regulatory framework, reasonable expectation as the standard of proof was successfully implemented and could be retained in the future; yet, the current classification system for radioactive waste, including hazardous constituents, warrants reexamination. Whether or not consideration of multiple sites are considered simultaneously in the future, inclusion of mechanisms such as deliberate use of performance assessment to manage site characterization would be wise. Because of experience gained here and abroad, diversity of geologic media is not particularly necessary as a criterion in site selection guidelines for multiple sites. Stepwise development of the repository program that includes flexibility also warrants serious consideration. Furthermore, integration of the waste management system from storage, transportation, and disposition, should be examined and would be facilitated by integration of the legal and regulatory framework. Finally, in order to enhance acceptability of future repository development, the national policy should be cognizant of those policy and technical attributes that enhance initial acceptance, and those policy and technical attributes that maintain and broaden credibility.
This report evaluates the feasibility of high-level radioactive waste disposal in shale within the United States. The U.S. has many possible clay/shale/argillite basins with positive attributes for permanent disposal. Similar geologic formations have been extensively studied by international programs with largely positive results, over significant ranges of the most important material characteristics including permeability, rheology, and sorptive potential. This report is enabled by the advanced work of the international community to establish functional and operational requirements for disposal of a range of waste forms in shale media. We develop scoping performance analyses, based on the applicable features, events, and processes identified by international investigators, to support a generic conclusion regarding post-closure safety. Requisite assumptions for these analyses include waste characteristics, disposal concepts, and important properties of the geologic formation. We then apply lessons learned from Sandia experience on the Waste Isolation Pilot Project and the Yucca Mountain Project to develop a disposal strategy should a shale repository be considered as an alternative disposal pathway in the U.S. Disposal of high-level radioactive waste in suitable shale formations is attractive because the material is essentially impermeable and self-sealing, conditions are chemically reducing, and sorption tends to prevent radionuclide transport. Vertically and laterally extensive shale and clay formations exist in multiple locations in the contiguous 48 states. Thermal-hydrologic-mechanical calculations indicate that temperatures near emplaced waste packages can be maintained below boiling and will decay to within a few degrees of the ambient temperature within a few decades (or longer depending on the waste form). Construction effects, ventilation, and the thermal pulse will lead to clay dehydration and deformation, confined to an excavation disturbed zone within a few meters of the repository, that can be reasonably characterized. Within a few centuries after waste emplacement, overburden pressures will seal fractures, resaturate the dehydrated zones, and provide a repository setting that strongly limits radionuclide movement to diffusive transport. Coupled hydrogeochemical transport calculations indicate maximum extents of radionuclide transport on the order of tens to hundreds of meters, or less, in a million years. Under the conditions modeled, a shale repository could achieve total containment, with no releases to the environment in undisturbed scenarios. The performance analyses described here are based on the assumption that long-term standards for disposal in clay/shale would be identical in the key aspects, to those prescribed for existing repository programs such as Yucca Mountain. This generic repository evaluation for shale is the first developed in the United States. Previous repository considerations have emphasized salt formations and volcanic rock formations. Much of the experience gained from U.S. repository development, such as seal system design, coupled process simulation, and application of performance assessment methodology, is applied here to scoping analyses for a shale repository. A contemporary understanding of clay mineralogy and attendant chemical environments has allowed identification of the appropriate features, events, and processes to be incorporated into the analysis. Advanced multi-physics modeling provides key support for understanding the effects from coupled processes. The results of the assessment show that shale formations provide a technically advanced, scientifically sound disposal option for the U.S.
Preliminary evaluation of deep borehole disposal of high-level radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel indicates the potential for excellent long-term safety performance at costs competitive with mined repositories. Significant fluid flow through basement rock is prevented, in part, by low permeabilities, poorly connected transport pathways, and overburden self-sealing. Deep fluids also resist vertical movement because they are density stratified. Thermal hydrologic calculations estimate the thermal pulse from emplaced waste to be small (less than 20 C at 10 meters from the borehole, for less than a few hundred years), and to result in maximum total vertical fluid movement of {approx}100 m. Reducing conditions will sharply limit solubilities of most dose-critical radionuclides at depth, and high ionic strengths of deep fluids will prevent colloidal transport. For the bounding analysis of this report, waste is envisioned to be emplaced as fuel assemblies stacked inside drill casing that are lowered, and emplaced using off-the-shelf oilfield and geothermal drilling techniques, into the lower 1-2 km portion of a vertical borehole {approx}45 cm in diameter and 3-5 km deep, followed by borehole sealing. Deep borehole disposal of radioactive waste in the United States would require modifications to the Nuclear Waste Policy Act and to applicable regulatory standards for long-term performance set by the US Environmental Protection Agency (40 CFR part 191) and US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (10 CFR part 60). The performance analysis described here is based on the assumption that long-term standards for deep borehole disposal would be identical in the key regards to those prescribed for existing repositories (40 CFR part 197 and 10 CFR part 63).
This paper describes the evolution of the process for assessing the hazards of a geologic disposal system for radioactive waste and, similarly, nuclear power reactors, and the relationship of this process with other assessments of risk, particularly assessments of hazards from manufactured carcinogenic chemicals during use and disposal. This perspective reviews the common history of scientific concepts for risk assessment developed to the 1950s. Computational tools and techniques developed in the late 1950s and early 1960s to analyze the reliability of nuclear weapon delivery systems were adopted in the early 1970s for probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power reactors, a technology for which behavior was unknown. In turn, these analyses became an important foundation for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal in the late 1970s. The evaluation of risk to human health and the environment from chemical hazards is built upon methods for assessing the dose response of radionuclides in the 1950s. Despite a shared background, however, societal events, often in the form of legislation, have affected the development path for risk assessment for human health, producing dissimilarities between these risk assessments and those for nuclear facilities. An important difference is the regulator's interest in accounting for uncertainty and the tools used to evaluate it.
Based on general arguments presented in this report, nuclear criticality was eliminated from performance assessment calculations for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), a repository for waste contaminated with transuranic (TRU) radioisotopes, located in southeastern New Mexico. At the WIPP, the probability of criticality within the repository is low because mechanisms to concentrate the fissile radioisotopes dispersed throughout the waste are absent. In addition, following an inadvertent human intrusion into the repository (an event that must be considered because of safety regulations), the probability of nuclear criticality away from the repository is low because (1) the amount of fissile mass transported over 10,000 yr is predicted to be small, (2) often there are insufficient spaces in the advective pore space (e.g., macroscopic fractures) to provide sufficient thickness for precipitation of fissile material, and (3) there is no credible mechanism to counteract the natural tendency of the material to disperse during transport and instead concentrate fissile material in a small enough volume for it to form a critical concentration. Furthermore, before a criticality would have the potential to affect human health after closure of the repository--assuming that a criticality could occur--it would have to either (1) degrade the ability of the disposal system to contain nuclear waste or (2) produce significantly more radioisotopes than originally present. Neither of these situations can occur at the WIPP; thus, the consequences of a criticality are also low.