Publications

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This paper discusses and seeks to synthesize theories regarding the role of ideology and psychosocial contextual factors in shaping motivations and behaviors of individuals within violent extremist movements. To better understand how these factors give birth to and nurture extremist social movements, theory from a multitude of disciplines was incorporated into a conceptual model of the drivers associated with terrorist behaviors. This model draws upon empirically supported theoretical notions, such as the violation of socioeconomic and geopolitical expectations, the concept of perceived threat, one’s mental construction of the world and group polarization. It also draws upon the importance of one’s social identity, sense of belonging, and the perceived “glamour” associated with extremist group behaviors.

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The transformation of the distribution grid from a centralized to decentralized architecture, with bi-directional power and data flows, is made possible by a surge in network intelligence and grid automation. While changes are largely beneficial, the interface between grid operator and automated technologies is not well understood, nor are the benefits and risks of automation. Quantifying and understanding the latter is an important facet of grid resilience that needs to be fully investigated. The work described in this document represents the first empirical study aimed at identifying and mitigating the vulnerabilities posed by automation for a grid that for the foreseeable future will remain a human-in-the-loop critical infrastructure. Our scenario-based methodology enabled us to conduct a series of experimental studies to identify causal relationships between grid-operator performance and automated technologies and to collect measurements of human performance as a function of automation. Our findings, though preliminary, suggest there are predictive patterns in the interplay between human operators and automation, patterns that can inform the rollout of distribution automation and the hiring and training of operators, and contribute in multiple and significant ways to the field of grid resilience.

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We created a cognition-focused system dynamics model to simulate the dynamics of smoking tendencies based on media influences and communication of opinions. We based this model on the premise that the dynamics of attitudes about smoking can be more deeply understood by combining opinion dynamics with more in-depth psychological models that explicitly explore the root causes of behaviors of interest. Results of the model show the relative effectiveness of two different policies as compared to a baseline: A decrease in advertising spending, and an increase in educational spending. The initial results presented here indicate the utility of this type of simulation for analyzing various policies meant to influence the dynamics of opinions in a population.

The Integrated Human Futures Project provides a set of analytical and quantitative modeling and simulation tools that help explore the links among human social, economic, and ecological conditions, human resilience, conflict, and peace, and allows users to simulate tradeoffs and consequences associated with different future development and mitigation scenarios. In the current study, we integrate five distinct modeling platforms to simulate the potential risk of social unrest in Egypt resulting from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. The five platforms simulate hydrology, agriculture, economy, human ecology, and human psychology/behavior, and show how impacts derived from development initiatives in one sector (e.g., hydrology) might ripple through to affect other sectors and how development and security concerns may be triggered across the region. This approach evaluates potential consequences, intended and unintended, associated with strategic policy actions that span the development-security nexus at the national, regional, and international levels. Model results are not intended to provide explicit predictions, but rather to provide system-level insight for policy makers into the dynamics among these interacting sectors, and to demonstrate an approach to evaluating short- and long-term policy trade-offs across different policy domains and stakeholders. The GERD project is critical to government-planned development efforts in Ethiopia but is expected to reduce downstream freshwater availability in the Nile Basin, fueling fears of negative social and economic impacts that could threaten stability and security in Egypt. We tested these hypotheses and came to the following preliminary conclusions. First, the GERD will have an important short-term impact on water availability, food production, and hydropower production in Egypt, depending on the short- term reservoir fill rate. Second, the GERD will have a very small impact on water availability in the Nile Basin over the longer term. Depending on the GERD fill rate, short-term (e.g., within its first 5 years of operation) annual losses in Egyptian food production may peak briefly at 25 percent. Long-term (e.g., 15 to 30 year) cumulative losses in Egypt's food production may be less than 3 percent regardless of the fill rate, with the GERD having essentially no impact on projected annual food production in Egypt about 25 years after opening. For the quick fill rates, the short-term losses may be sufficient to create an important decrease in overall household health among the general population, which, along with other economic stressors and different strategies employed by the government, could lead to social unrest. Third, and perhaps most importantly, our modeling suggests that the GERD's effect on Egypt's food and water resources is small when compared to the effect of projected Egyptian population and economic growth (and the concomitant increase in water consumption). The latter dominating factors are exacerbated in the modeling by natural climate variability and may be further exacerbated by climate change. Our modeling suggests that these growth dynamics combine to create long-term water scarcity in Egypt, regardless of the Ethiopian project. All else being equal, filling strategies that employ slow fill rates for the GERD (e.g., 8 to 13 years) may mitigate the risks in future scenarios for Egypt somewhat, but no policy or action regarding the GERD is likely to significantly alleviate the projected water scarcity in Egypt's Nile Basin. However, general beliefs among the Egyptian populace regarding the GERD as a major contributing factor for scarcities in Egypt could make Ethiopia a scapegoat for Egyptian grievances -- contributing to social unrest in Egypt and generating undesirable (and unnecessary) tension between these two countries. Such tension could threaten the constructive relationships between Egypt and Ethiopia that are vital to maintaining stability and security within and between their respective regional spheres of influence, Middle East and North Africa, and the Horn of Africa.

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The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has generated tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia over control of the Nile River in Northern Africa. However, tensions within Egypt have also been pronounced, leading up to and following the Arab Spring uprising of 2011. This study used the Behavior Influence Assessment (BIA) framework to simulate a dynamic hypothesis regarding how tensions within Egypt may evolve given the impacts of the GERD. Primarily, we addressed the interplay between four parties over an upcoming ten-year period: the Egyptian Regime, the Military-Elite, the Militant population, and the non-Militant population. The core tenant of the hypothesis is that rising food prices was a strong driver to the unrest leading up to the Arab Spring events and that this same type of economic stress could be driven by the GERD—albeit with different political undertones. Namely, the GERD offers the Regime a target for inciting nationalism, and while this may buy the regime time to fix the underlying economic impacts, ultimately there exists a tipping point beyond which exponentially increasing unrest is unavoidable without implementing strong measures, such as state militarization.

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Electric distribution utilities, the companies that feed electricity to end users, are overseeing a technological transformation of their networks, installing sensors and other automated equipment, that are fundamentally changing the way the grid operates. These grid modernization efforts will allow utilities to incorporate some of the newer technology available to the home user – such as solar panels and electric cars – which will result in a bi-directional flow of energy and information. How will this new flow of information affect control room operations? How will the increased automation associated with smart grid technologies influence control room operators’ decisions? And how will changes in control room operations and operator decision making impact grid resilience? These questions have not been thoroughly studied, despite the enormous changes that are taking place. In this study, which involved collaborating with utility companies in the state of Vermont, the authors proposed to advance the science of control-room decision making by understanding the impact of distribution grid modernization on operator performance. Distribution control room operators were interviewed to understand daily tasks and decisions and to gain an understanding of how these impending changes will impact control room operations. Situation awareness was found to be a major contributor to successful control room operations. However, the impact of growing levels of automation due to smart grid technology on operators’ situation awareness is not well understood. Future work includes performing a naturalistic field study in which operator situation awareness will be measured in real-time during normal operations and correlated with the technological changes that are underway. The results of this future study will inform tools and strategies that will help system operators adapt to a changing grid, respond to critical incidents and maintain critical performance skills.

The impact of automation on human performance has been studied by human factors researchers for over 35 years. One unresolved facet of this research is measurement of the level of automation across and within engineered systems. Repeatable methods of observing, measuring and documenting the level of automation are critical to the creation and validation of generalized theories of automation's impact on the reliability and resilience of human-in-the-loop systems. Numerous qualitative scales for measuring automation have been proposed. However these methods require subjective assessments based on the researcher's knowledge and experience, or through expert knowledge elicitation involving highly experienced individuals from each work domain. More recently, quantitative scales have been proposed, but have yet to be widely adopted, likely due to the difficulty associated with obtaining a sufficient number of empirical measurements from each system component. Our research suggests the need for a quantitative method that enables rapid measurement of a system's level of automation, is applicable across domains, and can be used by human factors practitioners in field studies or by system engineers as part of their technical planning processes. In this paper we present our research methodology and early research results from studies of electricity grid distribution control rooms. Using a system analysis approach based on quantitative measures of level of automation, we provide an illustrative analysis of select grid modernization efforts. This measure of the level of automation can be displayed as either a static, historical view of the system's automation dynamics (the dynamic interplay between human and automation required to maintain system performance) or it can be incorporated into real-time visualization systems already present in control rooms.

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