This report documents the Resilience Enhancements through Deep Learning Yields (REDLY) project, a three-year effort to improve electrical grid resilience by developing scalable methods for system operators to protect the grid against threats leading to interrupted service or physical damage. The computational complexity and uncertain nature of current real-world contingency analysis presents significant barriers to automated, real-time monitoring. While there has been a significant push to explore the use of accurate, high-performance machine learning (ML) model surrogates to address this gap, their reliability is unclear when deployed in high-consequence applications such as power grid systems. Contemporary optimization techniques used to validate surrogate performance can exploit ML model prediction errors, which necessitates the verification of worst-case performance for the models.
This work focuses on estimation of unknown states and parameters in a discrete-time, stochastic, SEIR model using reported case counts and mortality data. An SEIR model is based on classifying individuals with respect to their status in regards to the progression of the disease, where S is the number individuals who remain susceptible to the disease, E is the number of individuals who have been exposed to the disease but not yet infectious, I is the number of individuals who are currently infectious, and R is the number of recovered individuals. For convenience, we include in our notation the number of infections or transmissions, T, that represents the number of individuals transitioning from compartment S to compartment E over a particular interval. Similarly, we use C to represent the number of reported cases.
In response to anticipated resource shortfalls related to the treatment and testing of COVID-19, many communities are planning to build additional facilities to increase capacity. These facilities include field hospitals, testing centers, mobile manufacturing units, and distribution centers. In many cases, these facilities are intended to be temporary and are designed to meet an immediate need. When deciding where to place new facilities many factors need to be considered, including the feasibility of potential locations, existing resource availability, anticipated demand, and accessibility between patients and the new facility. In this project, a facility location optimization model was developed to integrate these key pieces of information to help decision makers identify the best place, or places, to build a facility to meet anticipated resource demands. The facility location optimization model uses the location of existing resources and the anticipated resource demand at each location to minimize the distance a patient must travel to get to the resource they need. The optimization formulation is presented below. The model was designed to operate at the county scale, where patients are grouped per county. This assumption can be modified to integrate other scales or include individual patients.
While peak shaving is commonly used to reduce power costs, chemical process facilities that can reduce power consumption on demand during emergencies (e.g., extreme weather events) bring additional value through improved resilience. For process facilities to effectively negotiate demand response (DR) contracts and make investment decisions regarding flexibility, they need to quantify their additional value to the grid. We present a grid-centric mixed-integer stochastic programming framework to determine the value of DR for improving grid resilience in place of capital investments that can be cost prohibitive for system operators. We formulate problems using both a linear approximation and a nonlinear alternating current power flow model. Our numerical results with both models demonstrate that DR can be used to reduce the capital investment necessary for resilience, increasing the value that chemical process facilities bring through DR. However, the linearized model often underestimates the amount of DR needed in our case studies. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. AIChE J, 65: e16508, 2019.
Electricity markets rely on the rapid solution of the optimal power flow (OPF) problem to determine generator power levels and set nodal prices. Traditionally, the OPF problem has been formulated using linearized, approximate models, ignoring nonlinear alternating current (AC) physics. These approaches do not guarantee global optimality or even feasibility in the real ACOPF problem. We introduce an outer-approximation approach to solve the ACOPF problem to global optimality based on alternating solution of upper- and lower-bounding problems. The lower-bounding problem is a piecewise relaxation based on strong second-order cone relaxations of the ACOPF, and these piecewise relaxations are selectively refined at each major iteration through increased variable domain partitioning. Our approach is able to efficiently solve all but one of the test cases considered to an optimality gap below 0.1%. Furthermore, this approach opens the door for global solution of MINLP problems with AC power flow equations.
The solution of the Optimal Power Flow (OPF) and Unit Commitment (UC) problems (i.e., determining generator schedules and set points that satisfy demands) is critical for efficient and reliable operation of the electricity grid. For computational efficiency, the alternating current OPF (ACOPF) problem is usually formulated with a linearized transmission model, often referred to as the DCOPF problem. However, these linear approximations do not guarantee global optimality or even feasibility for the true nonlinear alternating current (AC) system. Nonlinear AC power flow models can and should be used to improve model fidelity, but successful global solution of problems with these models requires the availability of strong relaxations of the AC optimal power flow constraints. In this paper, we use McCormick envelopes to strengthen the well-known second-order cone (SOC) relaxation of the ACOPF problem. With this improved relaxation, we can further include tight bounds on the voltages at the reference bus, and this paper demonstrates the effectiveness of this for improved bounds tightening. We present results on the optimality gap of both the base SOC relaxation and our Strengthened SOC (SSOC) relaxation for the National Information and Communications Technology Australia (NICTA) Energy System Test Case Archive (NESTA). For the cases where the SOC relaxation yields an optimality gap more than 0.1 %, the SSOC relaxation with bounds tightening further reduces the optimality gap by an average of 67 % and ultimately reduces the optimality gap to less than 0.1 % for 58 % of all the NESTA cases considered. Stronger relaxations enable more efficient global solution of the ACOPF problem and can improve computational efficiency of MINLP problems with AC power flow constraints, e.g., unit commitment.
Drinking water systems face multiple challenges, including aging infrastructure, water quality concerns, uncertainty in supply and demand, natural disasters, environmental emergencies, and cyber and terrorist attacks. All of these have the potential to disrupt a large portion of a water system causing damage to infrastructure and outages to customers. Increasing resilience to these types of hazards is essential to improving water security. As one of the United States (US) sixteen critical infrastructure sectors, drinking water is a national priority. The National Infrastructure Advisory Council defined infrastructure resilience as “the ability to reduce the magnitude and/or duration of disruptive events. The effectiveness of a resilient infrastructure or enterprise depends upon its ability to anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and/or rapidly recover from a potentially disruptive event”. Being able to predict how drinking water systems will perform during disruptive incidents and understanding how to best absorb, recover from, and more successfully adapt to such incidents can help enhance resilience.
Water utilities are vulnerable to a wide variety of human-caused and natural disasters. The Water Network Tool for Resilience (WNTR) is a new open source Python™ package designed to help water utilities investigate resilience of water distribution systems to hazards and evaluate resilience-enhancing actions. In this paper, the WNTR modeling framework is presented and a case study is described that uses WNTR to simulate the effects of an earthquake on a water distribution system. The case study illustrates that the severity of damage is not only a function of system integrity and earthquake magnitude, but also of the available resources and repair strategies used to return the system to normal operating conditions. While earthquakes are particularly concerning since buried water distribution pipelines are highly susceptible to damage, the software framework can be applied to other types of hazards, including power outages and contamination incidents.