Publications

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This report provides performance data and analysis for two Stion copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) module types, one framed, the other frameless, and installed at the New Mexico, Florida and Vermont RTCs. Sandia looked at data from both module types and compared the latter with data from an adjacent monocrystalline baseline array at each RTC. The results indicate that the Stion modules are slightly outperforming their rated power, with efficiency values above 100% of rated power, at 25degC cell temperatures. In addition, Sandia sees no significant performance differences between module types, which is expected because the modules differ only in their framing. In contrast to the baseline systems, the Stion strings showed increasing efficiency with increasing irradiance, with the greatest increase between zero and 400 Wm -2 but still noticeable increases at 1000 Wm -2 . Although baseline data availability in Vermont was spotty and therefore comparative trends are difficult to discern, the Stion modules there may offer snow- shedding advantages over monocrystalline-silicon modules but these findings are preliminary.

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High-frequency solar variability is an important to grid integration studies, but ground measurements are scarce. The high resolution irradiance algorithm (HRIA) has the ability to produce 4-sceond resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) samples, at locations across North America. However, the HRIA has not been extensively validated. In this work, we evaluate the HRIA against a database of 10 high-frequency ground-based measurements of irradiance. The evaluation focuses on variability-based metrics. This results in a greater understanding of the errors in the HRIA as well as suggestions for improvement to the HRIA.

As PV and wind power penetrations in utility balancing areas increase, it is important to understand how they will impact net load. We investigate daily and seasonal trends in solar power generation, wind power generation, and net load. Quantitative metrics are used to compare scenarios with no PV or wind, PV plus wind, only PV, or only wind. PV plus wind scenarios are found to have a larger reduction in maximum net load and smaller ranges between maximum and minimum load than PV only or wind only scenarios, showing that PV plus wind can be a beneficial combination.

Short circuit current (Isc) depends on the effective irradiance incident upon a PV module. Effective irradiance is highly correlated with broadband irradiance, but can vary slightly as the spectral content of the incident light changes. We explore using a few spectral wavelengths with broadband irradiance to predict Isc for ten modules of varying technologies (silicon, CIGS, CdTe). The goal is to identify a few spectral wavelengths that could be easily (and economically) measured to improve PV performance modeling.

Accurately representing the local solar variability at distribution timescales (30-seconds and shorter) is essential to modeling the impact of solar photovoltaics (PV) on distribution feeders. Previous works have examined variability at single locations, but this may not be useful to an operator whose distribution feeder is in a different climate region. In this work, we compare high-frequency variability from 8 locations in the United States. We define a variability metric for quantifying variability and use this metric to quantify and compare the variability at each of the 8 locations. We also explore the relationship between high-frequency and low-frequency (hourly) variability to see if widely-available low-frequency data (e.g., satellite data) may be used to determine variability climate zones. The end goal is to provide high-frequency solar inputs with climatologically representative solar variability for use in distribution studies.

To address the lack of knowledge of local solar variability, we have developed and deployed a low-cost solar variability datalogger (SVD). While most currently used solar irradiance sensors are expensive pyranometers with high accuracy (relevant for annual energy estimates), low-cost sensors display similar precision (relevant for solar variability) as high-cost pyranometers, even if they are not as accurate. In this work, we present evaluation of various low-cost irradiance sensor types, describe the SVD, and present validation and comparison of the SVD collected data. The low cost and ease of use of the SVD will enable a greater understanding of local solar variability, which will reduce developer and utility uncertainty about the impact of solar photovoltaic (PV) installations and thus will encourage greater penetrations of solar energy.

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A 9.6 kW test array of Prism bifacial modules and reference monofacial modules installed in February 2016 at the New Mexico Regional Test Center has produced six months of performance data. The data reveal that the Prism modules are out-performing the monofacial modules, with bifacial gains in energy over the six-month period ranging from 18% to 136%, depending on the orientation and ground albedo. These measured bifacial gains were found to be in good agreement with modeled bifacial gains using equations previously published by Prism. The most dramatic increase in performance was seen among the vertically tilted, west-facing modules, where the bifacial modules produced more than double the energy of monofacial modules and more energy than monofacial modules at any orientation. Because peak energy generation (mid-morning and mid-afternoon) for these bifacial modules may best match load on the electric grid, the west-facing orientation may be more economically desirable than traditional south-facing module orientations (which peak at solar noon).

This data shows the PV power by neighborhood for Oahu, Hawaii.

This data shows the PV power for all Oahu during the year 2014.

Distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation in Oahu has grown rapidly since 2008. For applications such as determining the value of energy storage, it is important to have PV power output timeseries. Since these timeseries of not typically measured, here we produce simulated distributed PV power output for Oahu. Simulated power output is based on (a) satellite-derived solar irradiance, (b) PV permit data by neighborhood, and (c) population data by census block. Permit and population data was used to model locations of distributed PV, and irradiance data was then used to simulate power output. PV power output simulations are presented by sub-neighborhood polygons, neighborhoods, and for the whole island of Oahu. Summary plots of annual PV energy and a sample week timeseries of power output are shown, and a the files containing the entire timeseries are described.

This report contains the written footprint of a Sandia-hosted workshop held in Albuquerque, New Mexico, June 22-23, 2016 on “Complex Systems Models and Their Applications: Towards a New Science of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification,” as well as of pre-work that fed into the workshop. The workshop’s intent was to explore and begin articulating research opportunities at the intersection between two important Sandia communities: the complex systems (CS) modeling community, and the verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) community The overarching research opportunity (and challenge) that we ultimately hope to address is: how can we quantify the credibility of knowledge gained from complex systems models, knowledge that is often incomplete and interim, but will nonetheless be used, sometimes in real-time, by decision makers?

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