Publications

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The potential impacts of man-made and natural disasters on chemical plants, complexes, and supply chains are of great importance to homeland security. To be able to estimate these impacts, we developed an agent-based chemical supply chain model that includes: chemical plants with enterprise operations such as purchasing, production scheduling, and inventories; merchant chemical markets, and multi-modal chemical shipments. Large-scale simulations of chemical-plant activities and supply chain interactions, running on desktop computers, are used to estimate the scope and duration of disruptive-event impacts, and overall system resilience, based on the extent to which individual chemical plants can adjust their internal operations (e.g., production mixes and levels) versus their external interactions (market sales and purchases, and transportation routes and modes). To illustrate how the model estimates the impacts of a hurricane disruption, a simple example model centered on 1,4-butanediol is presented. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

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As alternative energy generating devices (i.e., solar, wind, etc) are added onto the electrical energy grid (AC grid), irregularities in the available electricity due to natural occurrences (i.e., clouds reducing solar input or wind burst increasing wind powered turbines) will be dramatically increased. Due to their almost instantaneous response, modern flywheel-based energy storage devices can act a mechanical mechanism to regulate the AC grid; however, improved spin speeds will be required to meet the necessary energy levels to balance these green energy variances. Focusing on composite flywheels, we have investigated methods for improving the spin speeds based on materials needs. The so-called composite flywheels are composed of carbon fiber (C-fiber), glass fiber, and a glue (resin) to hold them together. For this effort, we have focused on the addition of fillers to the resin in order to improve its properties. Based on the high loads required for standard meso-sized fillers, this project investigated the utility of ceramic nanofillers since they can be added at very low load levels due to their high surface area. The impact that TiO2 nanowires had on the final strength of the flywheel material was determined by a three-point-bend test. The results of the introduction of nanomaterials demonstrated an increase in strength of the flywheels C-fiber-resin moiety, with an upper limit of a 30% increase being reported. An analysis of the economic impact concerning the utilization of the nanowires was undertaken and after accounting for new-technology and additional production costs, return on improved-nanocomposite investment was approximated at 4-6% per year over the 20-year expected service life. Further, it was determined based on the 30% improvement in strength, this change may enable a 20-30% reduction in flywheel energy storage cost ($/kW-h).

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This paper describes the Regional Economic Accounting (REAcct) analysis tool that has been in use for the last 5 years to rapidly estimate approximate economic impacts for disruptions due to natural or manmade events. It is based on and derived from the well-known and extensively documented input-output modeling technique initially presented by Leontief and more recently further developed by numerous contributors. REAcct provides county-level economic impact estimates in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment for any area in the United States. The process for using REAcct incorporates geospatial computational tools and site-specific economic data, permitting the identification of geographic impact zones that allow differential magnitude and duration estimates to be specified for regions affected by a simulated or actual event. Using these data as input to REAcct, the number of employees for 39 directly affected economic sectors (including 37 industry production sectors and 2 government sectors) are calculated and aggregated to provide direct impact estimates. Indirect estimates are then calculated using Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II) multipliers. The interdependent relationships between critical infrastructures, industries, and markets are captured by the relationships embedded in the inputoutput modeling structure.

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In recent years, the nation has recognized that critical infrastructure protection should consider not only the prevention of disruptive events, but also the processes that infrastructure systems undergo to maintain functionality following disruptions. This more comprehensive approach has been termed critical infrastructure resilience. Given the occurrence of a particular disruptive event, the resilience of a system to that event is the system's ability to efficiently reduce both the magnitude and duration of the deviation from targeted system performance levels. Under the direction of the U. S. Department of Homeland Security's Science and Technology Directorate, Sandia National Laboratories has developed a comprehensive resilience assessment framework for evaluating the resilience of infrastructure and economic systems. The framework includes a quantitative methodology that measures resilience costs that result from a disruption to infrastructure function. The framework also includes a qualitative analysis methodology that assesses system characteristics affecting resilience to provide insight and direction for potential improvements. This paper describes the resilience assessment framework and demonstrates the utility of the assessment framework through application to two hypothetical scenarios involving the disruption of a petrochemical supply chain by hurricanes.

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