This work proposes a machine-learning framework for modeling the error incurred by approximate solutions to parameterized dynamical systems. In particular, we extend the machine-learning error models (MLEM) framework proposed in Ref. Freno and Carlberg (2019) to dynamical systems. The proposed Time-Series Machine-Learning Error Modeling (T-MLEM) method constructs a regression model that maps features – which comprise error indicators that are derived from standard a posteriori error-quantification techniques – to a random variable for the approximate-solution error at each time instance. The proposed framework considers a wide range of candidate features, regression methods, and additive noise models. We consider primarily recursive regression techniques developed for time-series modeling, including both classical time-series models (e.g., autoregressive models) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), but also analyze standard non-recursive regression techniques (e.g., feed-forward neural networks) for comparative purposes. Numerical experiments conducted on multiple benchmark problems illustrate that the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, which is a type of RNN, outperforms other methods and yields substantial improvements in error predictions over traditional approaches.
In many applications, projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs) have demonstrated the ability to provide rapid approximate solutions to high-fidelity full-order models (FOMs). However, there is no a priori assurance that these approximate solutions are accurate; their accuracy depends on the ability of the low-dimensional trial basis to represent the FOM solution. As a result, ROMs can generate inaccurate approximate solutions, e.g., when the FOM solution at the online prediction point is not well represented by training data used to construct the trial basis. To address this fundamental deficiency of standard model-reduction approaches, this work proposes a novel online-adaptive mechanism for efficiently enriching the trial basis in a manner that ensures convergence of the ROM to the FOM, yet does not incur any FOM solves. The mechanism is based on the previously proposed adaptive h-refinement method for ROMs (carlberg, 2015), but improves upon this work in two crucial ways. First, the proposed method enables basis refinement with respect to any orthogonal basis (not just the Kronecker basis), thereby generalizing the refinement mechanism and enabling it to be tailored to the physics characterizing the problem at hand. Second, the proposed method provides a fast online algorithm for periodically compressing the enriched basis via an efficient proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) method, which does not incur any operations that scale with the FOM dimension. These two features allow the proposed method to serve as (1) a failsafe mechanism for ROMs, as the method enables the ROM to satisfy any prescribed error tolerance online (even in the case of inadequate training), and (2) an efficient online basis-adaptation mechanism, as the combination of basis enrichment and compression enables the basis to adapt online while controlling its dimension.
Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering
Guzzetti, S.; Mansilla Alvarez, L.A.; Blanco, P.J.; Carlberg, Kevin T.; Veneziani, A.
Numerical simulations of the cardiovascular system are affected by uncertainties arising from a substantial lack of data related to the boundary conditions and the physical parameters of the mathematical models. Quantifying the impact of this uncertainty on the numerical results along the circulatory network is challenged by the complexity of both the morphology of the domain and the local dynamics. In this paper, we propose to integrate (i) the Transverse Enriched Pipe Element Methods (TEPEM) as a reduced-order model for effectively computing the 3D local hemodynamics; and (ii) a combination of uncertainty quantification via Polynomial Chaos Expansion and classical relaxation methods – called network uncertainty quantification (NetUQ) – for effectively propagating random variables that encode uncertainties throughout the networks. The results demonstrate the computational effectiveness of computing the propagation of uncertainties in networks with nontrivial topology, including portions of the cerebral and the coronary systems.
Carlberg, Kevin T.; Jameson, Antony; Kochenderfer, Mykel J.; Morton, Jeremy; Peng, Liqian; Witherden, Freddie D.
Data I/O poses a significant bottleneck in large-scale CFD simulations; thus, practitioners would like to significantly reduce the number of times the solution is saved to disk, yet retain the ability to recover any field quantity (at any time instance) a posteriori. The objective of this work is therefore to accurately recover missing CFD data a posteriori at any time instance, given that the solution has been written to disk at only a relatively small number of time instances. We consider in particular high-order discretizations (e.g., discontinuous Galerkin), as such techniques are becoming increasingly popular for the simulation of highly separated flows. To satisfy this objective, this work proposes a methodology consisting of two stages: 1) dimensionality reduction and 2) dynamics learning. For dimensionality reduction, we propose a novel hierarchical approach. First, the method reduces the number of degrees of freedom within each element of the high-order discretization by applying autoencoders from deep learning. Second, the methodology applies principal component analysis to compress the global vector of encodings. This leads to a low-dimensional state, which associates with a nonlinear embedding of the original CFD data. For dynamics learning, we propose to apply regression techniques (e.g., kernel methods) to learn the discrete-time velocity characterizing the time evolution of this low-dimensional state. A numerical example on a large-scale CFD example characterized by nearly 13 million degrees of freedom illustrates the suitability of the proposed method in an industrial setting.
This work introduces a new method to efficiently solve optimization problems constrained by partial differential equations (PDEs) with uncertain coefficients. The method leverages two sources of inexactness that trade accuracy for speed: (1) stochastic collocation based on dimension-Adaptive sparse grids (SGs), which approximates the stochastic objective function with a limited number of quadrature nodes, and (2) projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs), which generate efficient approximations to PDE solutions. These two sources of inexactness lead to inexact objective function and gradient evaluations, which are managed by a trust-region method that guarantees global convergence by adaptively refining the SG and ROM until a proposed error indicator drops below a tolerance specified by trust-region convergence theory. A key feature of the proposed method is that the error indicator|which accounts for errors incurred by both the SG and ROM|must be only an asymptotic error bound, i.e., a bound that holds up to an arbitrary constant that need not be computed. This enables the method to be applicable to a wide range of problems, including those where sharp, computable error bounds are not available; this distinguishes the proposed method from previous works. Numerical experiments performed on a model problem from optimal ow control under uncertainty verify global convergence of the method and demonstrate the method's ability to outperform previously proposed alternatives.
This project will enable high-fidelity aerothermal simulations of hypersonic vehicles to be employed (1) to generate large databases with quantified uncertainties and (2) for rapid interactive simulation. The databases will increase the volume/quality of A4H data; rapid interactive simulation can enable arbitrary conditions/designs to be simulated on demand. We will achieve this by applying reduced-order-modeling techniques to aerothermal simulations.