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A nexus approach to infrastructure resilience planning under uncertainty

Reliability Engineering and System Safety

Moglen, Rachel L.; Barth, Julius; Gupta, Shagun; Kawai, Eiji; Klise, Katherine A.; Leibowicz, Benjamin D.

Natural disasters pose serious threats to Critical Infrastructure (CI) systems like power and drinking water, sometimes disrupting service for days, weeks, or months. Decision makers can mitigate this risk by hardening CI systems through actions like burying power lines and installing backup generation for water pumping. However, the inherent uncertainty in natural disasters coupled with the high costs of hardening activities make disaster planning a challenging task. We develop a disaster planning framework that recommends asset-specific hardening projects across interdependent power and water networks facing the uncertainty of natural disasters. We demonstrate the utility of our model by applying it to Guayama, Puerto Rico, focusing on the risk posed by hurricanes. Our results show that our proposed optimization approach identifies hardening decisions that maintain a high level of service post-disaster. The results also emphasize power system hardening due to the dependency of the water system on power for water treatment and a higher vulnerability of the power network to hurricane damage. Finally, choosing optimal hardening decisions by hedging with respect to all potential hurricane scenarios and their probabilities produces results that perform better on extreme events and are less variable compared to optimizing for only the average hurricane scenario.

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Modifications to Sandia's MDT and WNTR tools for ERMA

Eddy, John P.; Klise, Katherine A.; Hart, David B.

ERMA is leveraging Sandia’s Microgrid Design Toolkit (MDT) [1] and adding significant new features to it. Development of the MDT was primarily funded by the Department of Energy, Office of Electricity Microgrid Program with some significant support coming from the U.S. Marine Corps. The MDT is a software program that runs on a Microsoft Windows PC. It is an amalgamation of several other software capabilities developed at Sandia and subsequently specialized for the purpose of microgrid design. The software capabilities include the Technology Management Optimization (TMO) application for optimal trade-space exploration, the Microgrid Performance and Reliability Model (PRM) for simulation of microgrid operations, and the Microgrid Sizing Capability (MSC) for preliminary sizing studies of distributed energy resources in a microgrid.

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Evaluating Manual Sampling Locations for Regulatory and Emergency Response

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management

Haxton, Terranna; Klise, Katherine A.; Laky, Daniel; Murray, Regan; Laird, Carl D.; Burkhardt, Jonathan B.

Drinking water systems commonly use manual or grab sampling to monitor water quality, identify or confirm issues, and verify that corrective or emergency response actions have been effective. In this paper, the effectiveness of regulatory sampling locations for emergency response is explored. An optimization formulation based on the literature was used to identify manual sampling locations to maximize overall nodal coverage of the system. Results showed that sampling locations could be effective in confirming incidents for which they were not designed. When evaluating sampling locations optimized for emergency response against regulatory scenarios, the average performance was reduced by 3%-4%, while using optimized regulatory sampling locations for emergency response reduced performance by 7%-10%. Secondary constraints were also included in the formulation to ensure geographical and water age diversity with minimal impact on the performance. This work highlighted that regulatory sampling locations provide value in responding to an emergency for these networks.

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Analysis of mobility data to build contact networks for COVID-19

PLoS ONE

Klise, Katherine A.; Beyeler, Walter E.; Finley, Patrick D.; Makvandi, Monear M.

As social distancing policies and recommendations went into effect in response to COVID-19, people made rapid changes to the places they visit. These changes are clearly seen in mobility data, which records foot traffic using location trackers in cell phones. While mobility data is often used to extract the number of customers that visit a particular business or business type, it is the frequency and duration of concurrent occupancy at those sites that governs transmission. Understanding the way people interact at different locations can help target policies and inform contact tracing and prevention strategies. This paper outlines methods to extract interactions from mobility data and build networks that can be used in epidemiological models. Several measures of interaction are extracted: interactions between people, the cumulative interactions for a single person, and cumulative interactions that occur at particular businesses. Network metrics are computed to identify structural trends which show clear changes based on the timing of stay-at-home orders. Measures of interaction and structural trends in the resulting networks can be used to better understand potential spreading events, the percent of interactions that can be classified as close contacts, and the impact of policy choices to control transmission.

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Facility Location Optimization Model for COVID-19 Resources

Klise, Katherine A.; Bynum, Michael L.

In response to anticipated resource shortfalls related to the treatment and testing of COVID-19, many communities are planning to build additional facilities to increase capacity. These facilities include field hospitals, testing centers, mobile manufacturing units, and distribution centers. In many cases, these facilities are intended to be temporary and are designed to meet an immediate need. When deciding where to place new facilities many factors need to be considered, including the feasibility of potential locations, existing resource availability, anticipated demand, and accessibility between patients and the new facility. In this project, a facility location optimization model was developed to integrate these key pieces of information to help decision makers identify the best place, or places, to build a facility to meet anticipated resource demands. The facility location optimization model uses the location of existing resources and the anticipated resource demand at each location to minimize the distance a patient must travel to get to the resource they need. The optimization formulation is presented below. The model was designed to operate at the county scale, where patients are grouped per county. This assumption can be modified to integrate other scales or include individual patients.

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A mathematical programming approach for the optimal placement of flame detectors in petrochemical facilities

Process Safety and Environmental Protection

Zhen, Todd; Klise, Katherine A.; Cunningham, Sean; Marszal, Edward; Laird, Carl D.

Flame detectors provide an important layer of protection for personnel in petrochemical plants, but effective placement can be challenging. A mixed-integer nonlinear programming formulation is proposed for optimal placement of flame detectors while considering non-uniform probabilities of detection failure. We show that this approach allows for the placement of fire detectors using a fixed sensor budget and outperforms models that do not account for imperfect detection. We develop a linear relaxation to the formulation and an efficient solution algorithm that achieves global optimality with reasonable computational effort. We integrate this problem formulation into the Python package, Chama, and demonstrate the effectiveness of this formulation on a small test case and on two real-world case studies using the fire and gas mapping software, Kenexis Effigy.

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Evaluation of chlorine booster station placement for water security

Computer Aided Chemical Engineering

Seth, Arpan; Hackebeil, Gaberiel A.; Haxton, Terranna; Murray, Regan; Laird, Carl D.; Klise, Katherine A.

Drinking water utilities use booster stations to maintain chlorine residuals throughout water distribution systems. Booster stations could also be used as part of an emergency response plan to minimize health risks in the event of an unintentional or malicious contamination incident. The benefit of booster stations for emergency response depends on several factors, including the reaction between chlorine and an unknown contaminant species, the fate and transport of the contaminant in the water distribution system, and the time delay between detection and initiation of boosted levels of chlorine. This paper takes these aspects into account and proposes a mixed-integer linear program formulation for optimizing the placement of booster stations for emergency response. A case study is used to explore the ability of optimally placed booster stations to reduce the impact of contamination in water distribution systems.

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Quantifying hydraulic and water quality uncertainty to inform sampling of drinking water distribution systems

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management

Hart, David B.; Rodriguez, J.S.; Burkhardt, Jonathan; Borchers, Brian; Laird, Carl D.; Murray, Regan; Klise, Katherine A.; Haxton, Terranna

Sampling of drinking water distribution systems is performed to ensure good water quality and protect public health. Sampling also satisfies regulatory requirements and is done to respond to customer complaints or emergency situations. Water distribution system modeling techniques can be used to plan and inform sampling strategies. However, a high degree of accuracy and confidence in the hydraulic and water quality models is required to support real-time response. One source of error in these models is related to uncertainty in model input parameters. Effective characterization of these uncertainties and their effect on contaminant transport during a contamination incident is critical for providing confidence estimates in model-based design and evaluation of different sampling strategies. In this paper, the effects of uncertainty in customer demand, isolation valve status, bulk reaction rate coefficient, contaminant injection location, start time, duration, and rate on the size and location of the contaminant plume are quantified for two example water distribution systems. Results show that the most important parameter was the injection location. The size of the plume was also affected by the reaction rate coefficient, injection rate, and injection duration, whereas the exact location of the plume was additionally affected by the isolation valve status. Uncertainty quantification provides a more complete picture of how contaminants move within a water distribution system and more information when using modeling results to select sampling locations.

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Sensor Placement Optimization using Chama

Klise, Katherine A.; Laird, Carl D.; Nicholson, Bethany L.

Continuous or regularly scheduled monitoring has the potential to quickly identify changes in the environment. However, even with low - cost sensors, only a limited number of sensors can be deployed. The physical placement of these sensors, along with the sensor technology and operating conditions, can have a large impact on the performance of a monitoring strategy. Chama is an open source Python package which includes mixed - integer, stochastic programming formulations to determine sensor locations and technology that maximize monitoring effectiveness. The methods in Chama are general and can be applied to a wide range of applications. Chama is currently being used to design sensor networks to monitor airborne pollutants and to monitor water quality in water distribution systems. The following documentation includes installation instructions and examples, description of software features, and software license. The software is intended to be used by regulatory agencies, industry, and the research community. It is assumed that the reader is familiar with the Python Programming Language. References are included for addit ional background on software components. Online documentation, hosted at http://chama.readthedocs.io/, will be updated as new features are added. The online version includes API documentation .

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Water Network Tool for Resilience (WNTR) User Manual

Klise, Katherine A.; Hart, David B.; Moriarty, Dylan; Bynum, Michael L.; Murray, Regan M.; Burkhardt, Jonathan B.; Haxton, Terra H.

Drinking water systems face multiple challenges, including aging infrastructure, water quality concerns, uncertainty in supply and demand, natural disasters, environmental emergencies, and cyber and terrorist attacks. All of these have the potential to disrupt a large portion of a water system causing damage to infrastructure and outages to customers. Increasing resilience to these types of hazards is essential to improving water security. As one of the United States (US) sixteen critical infrastructure sectors, drinking water is a national priority. The National Infrastructure Advisory Council defined infrastructure resilience as “the ability to reduce the magnitude and/or duration of disruptive events. The effectiveness of a resilient infrastructure or enterprise depends upon its ability to anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and/or rapidly recover from a potentially disruptive event”. Being able to predict how drinking water systems will perform during disruptive incidents and understanding how to best absorb, recover from, and more successfully adapt to such incidents can help enhance resilience.

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Numeruical modeling of flow and transport in fractured crystalline rock

ANS IHLRWM 2017 - 16th International High-Level Radioactive Waste Management Conference: Creating a Safe and Secure Energy Future for Generations to Come - Driving Toward Long-Term Storage and Disposal

Hadgu, Teklu H.; Kalinina, Elena A.; Klise, Katherine A.; Wang, Yifeng

Disposal of high-level radioactive waste in a deep geological repository in crystalline host rock is one of the potential options for long term isolation. Characterization of the natural barrier system is an important component of the disposal option. In this study we present numerical modeling of flow and transport in fractured crystalline rock using an updated fracture continuum model (FCM). The FCM is a stochastic method that maps the permeability of discrete fractures onto a regular grid. The original method [1] has been updated to provide capabilities that enhance representation of fractured rock. A companion paper [2] provides details of the methods for generating fracture network. In this paper use of the fracture model for the simulation of flow and transport is presented. Simulations were conducted to estimate flow and transport using an enhanced FCM method. Distributions of fracture parameters were used to generate a selected number of realizations. For each realization FCM produced permeability and porosity fields. The PFLOTRAN code [3] was used to simulate flow and transport. Simulation results and analysis are presented. The results indicate that the FCM approach is a viable method to model fractured crystalline rocks. The FCM is a computationally efficient way to generate realistic representation of complex fracture systems. This approach is of interest to nuclear waste disposal modeling applied over large domains.

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A software framework for assessing the resilience of drinking water systems to disasters with an example earthquake case study

Environmental Modelling and Software

Klise, Katherine A.; Bynum, Michael L.; Moriarty, Dylan; Murray, Regan

Water utilities are vulnerable to a wide variety of human-caused and natural disasters. The Water Network Tool for Resilience (WNTR) is a new open source Python™ package designed to help water utilities investigate resilience of water distribution systems to hazards and evaluate resilience-enhancing actions. In this paper, the WNTR modeling framework is presented and a case study is described that uses WNTR to simulate the effects of an earthquake on a water distribution system. The case study illustrates that the severity of damage is not only a function of system integrity and earthquake magnitude, but also of the available resources and repair strategies used to return the system to normal operating conditions. While earthquakes are particularly concerning since buried water distribution pipelines are highly susceptible to damage, the software framework can be applied to other types of hazards, including power outages and contamination incidents.

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Water Network Tool for Resilience Version 0.1

Klise, Katherine A.; Murray, Regan M.; Bynum, Michael B.; Moriarty, Dylan

Water utilities are vulnerable to a wide variety of human-caused and natural disasters. These disruptive events can result in loss of water service, contaminated water, pipe breaks, and failed equipment. Furthermore, long term changes in water supply and customer demand can have a large impact on the operating conditions of the network. The ability to maintain drinking water service during and following these types of events is critical. Simulation and analysis tools can help water utilities explore how their network will respond to disruptive events and plan effective mitigation strategies. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Sandia National Laboratories are developing new software tools to meet this need. The Water Network Tool for Resilience (WNTR, pronounced winter) is a Python package designed to help water utilities investigate resilience of water distribution systems over a wide range of hazardous scenarios and to evaluate resilience-enhancing actions. The following documentation includes installation instructions and examples, description of software features, and software license. It is assumed that the reader is familiar with the Python Programming Language.

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Automated contact angle estimation for three-dimensional X-ray microtomography data

Advances in Water Resources

Klise, Katherine A.; Moriarty, Dylan; Yoon, Hongkyu Y.; Karpyn, Zuleima

Multiphase flow in capillary regimes is a fundamental process in a number of geoscience applications. The ability to accurately define wetting characteristics of porous media can have a large impact on numerical models. In this paper, a newly developed automated three-dimensional contact angle algorithm is described and applied to high-resolution X-ray microtomography data from multiphase bead pack experiments with varying wettability characteristics. The algorithm calculates the contact angle by finding the angle between planes fit to each solid/fluid and fluid/fluid interface in the region surrounding each solid/fluid/fluid contact point. Results show that the algorithm is able to reliably compute contact angles using the experimental data. The in situ contact angles are typically larger than flat surface laboratory measurements using the same material. Wetting characteristics in mixed-wet systems also change significantly after displacement cycles.

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Testing contamination source identification methods for water distribution networks

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management

Seth, Arpan; Klise, Katherine A.; Siirola, John D.; Haxton, Terranna; Laird, Carl D.

In the event of contamination in a water distribution network (WDN), source identification (SI) methods that analyze sensor data can be used to identify the source location(s). Knowledge of the source location and characteristics are important to inform contamination control and cleanup operations. Various SI strategies that have been developed by researchers differ in their underlying assumptions and solution techniques. The following manuscript presents a systematic procedure for testing and evaluating SI methods. The performance of these SI methods is affected by various factors including the size of WDN model, measurement error, modeling error, time and number of contaminant injections, and time and number of measurements. This paper includes test cases that vary these factors and evaluates three SI methods on the basis of accuracy and specificity. The tests are used to review and compare these different SI methods, highlighting their strengths in handling various identification scenarios. These SI methods and a testing framework that includes the test cases and analysis tools presented in this paper have been integrated into EPA's Water Security Toolkit (WST), a suite of software tools to help researchers and others in the water industry evaluate and plan various response strategies in case of a contamination incident. Finally, a set of recommendations are made for users to consider when working with different categories of SI methods.

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Pore-scale investigation on stress-dependent characteristics of granular packs and the impact of pore deformation on fluid distribution

Geofluids

Torrealba, V.A.; Karpyn, Z.T.; Yoon, Hongkyu Y.; Klise, Katherine A.; Crandall, D.

Understanding the effect of changing stress conditions on multiphase flow in porous media is of fundamental importance for many subsurface activities including enhanced oil recovery, water drawdown from aquifers, soil confinement, and geologic carbon storage. Geomechanical properties of complex porous systems are dynamically linked to flow conditions, but their feedback relationship is often oversimplified due to the difficulty of representing pore-scale stress deformation and multiphase flow characteristics in high fidelity. In this work, we performed pore-scale experiments of single- and multiphase flow through bead packs at different confining pressure conditions to elucidate compaction-dependent characteristics of granular packs and their impact on fluid flow. A series of drainage and imbibition cycles were conducted on a water-wet, soda-lime glass bead pack under varying confining stress conditions. Simultaneously, X-ray micro-CT was used to visualize and quantify the degree of deformation and fluid distribution corresponding with each stress condition and injection cycle. Micro-CT images were segmented using a gradient-based method to identify fluids (e.g., oil and water), and solid phase redistribution throughout the different experimental stages. Changes in porosity, tortuosity, and specific surface area were quantified as a function of applied confining pressure. Results demonstrate varying degrees of sensitivity of these properties to confining pressure, which suggests that caution must be taken when considering scalability of these properties for practical modeling purposes. Changes in capillary number with confining pressure are attributed to the increase in pore velocity as a result of pore contraction. However, this increase in pore velocity was found to have a marginal impact on average phase trapping at different confining pressures.

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Dependence on geographic location of air mass modifiers for photovoltaic module performance models

2015 IEEE 42nd Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2015

Klise, Katherine A.; Hansen, Clifford H.; Stein, Joshua S.

Air mass modifiers are frequently used to represent the effects of solar spectrum on PV module current. Existing PV module performance models assume a single empirical expression, a polynomial in air mass, for all locations and times. In this paper, air mass modifiers are estimated for several modules of different types from IV curves measured with the modules at fixed orientation in three climatically different locations around the United States. Systematic variation is found in the effect of solar spectrum on PV module current that is not well approximated by the standard air mass modifier polynomial.

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Database Performance Monitoring for the Photovoltaic Systems

Klise, Katherine A.

The Database Performance Monitoring (DPM) software (copyright in processes) is being developed at Sandia National Laboratories to perform quality control analysis on time series data. The software loads time indexed databases (currently csv format), performs a series of quality control tests defined by the user, and creates reports which include summary statistics, tables, and graphics. DPM can be setup to run on an automated schedule defined by the user. For example, the software can be run once per day to analyze data collected on the previous day. HTML formatted reports can be sent via email or hosted on a website. To compare performance of several databases, summary statistics and graphics can be gathered in a dashboard view which links to detailed reporting information for each database. The software can be customized for specific applications.

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Systems Measures of Water Distribution System Resilience

Klise, Katherine A.; Murray, Regan M.; Jenkins, La T.

Resilience is a concept that is being used increasingly to refer to the capacity of infrastructure systems to be prepared for and able to respond effectively and rapidly to hazardous events. In Section 2 of this report, drinking water hazards, resilience literature, and available resilience tools are presented. Broader definitions, attributes and methods for measuring resilience are presented in Section 3. In Section 4, quantitative systems performance measures for water distribution systems are presented. Finally, in Section 5, the performance measures and their relevance to measuring the resilience of water systems to hazards is discussed along with needed improvements to water distribution system modeling tools.

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Water Security Toolkit User Manual Version 1.2

Klise, Katherine A.; Siirola, John D.; Hart, David B.; Hart, William E.; Phillips, Cynthia A.; Haxton, Terranna H.; Murray, Regan M.; Janke, Robert J.; Taxon, Thomas T.; Laird, Carl L.; Seth, Arpan S.; Hackebeil, Gabriel H.; McGee, Shawn M.; Mann, Angelica M.

The Water Security Toolkit (WST) is a suite of open source software tools that can be used by water utilities to create response strategies to reduce the impact of contamination in a water distribution network . WST includes hydraulic and water quality modeling software , optimizati on methodologies , and visualization tools to identify: (1) sensor locations to detect contamination, (2) locations in the network in which the contamination was introduced, (3) hydrants to remove contaminated water from the distribution system, (4) locations in the network to inject decontamination agents to inactivate, remove, or destroy contaminants, (5) locations in the network to take grab sample s to help identify the source of contamination and (6) valves to close in order to isolate contaminate d areas of the network. This user manual describes the different components of WST , along w ith examples and case studies. License Notice The Water Security Toolkit (WST) v.1.2 Copyright c 2012 Sandia Corporation. Under the terms of Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000, there is a non-exclusive license for use of this work by or on behalf of the U.S. government. This software is distributed under the Revised BSD License (see below). In addition, WST leverages a variety of third-party software packages, which have separate licensing policies: Acro Revised BSD License argparse Python Software Foundation License Boost Boost Software License Coopr Revised BSD License Coverage BSD License Distribute Python Software Foundation License / Zope Public License EPANET Public Domain EPANET-ERD Revised BSD License EPANET-MSX GNU Lesser General Public License (LGPL) v.3 gcovr Revised BSD License GRASP AT&T Commercial License for noncommercial use; includes randomsample and sideconstraints executable files LZMA SDK Public Domain nose GNU Lesser General Public License (LGPL) v.2.1 ordereddict MIT License pip MIT License PLY BSD License PyEPANET Revised BSD License Pyro MIT License PyUtilib Revised BSD License PyYAML MIT License runpy2 Python Software Foundation License setuptools Python Software Foundation License / Zope Public License six MIT License TinyXML zlib License unittest2 BSD License Utilib Revised BSD License virtualenv MIT License Vol Common Public License vpykit Revised BSD License Additionally, some precompiled WST binary distributions might bundle other third-party executables files: Coliny Revised BSD License (part of Acro project) Dakota GNU Lesser General Public License (LGPL) v.2.1 PICO Revised BSD License (part of Acro project) i Revised BSD License Redistribution and use in source and binary forms, with or without modification, are permitted provided that the following conditions are met: * Redistributions of source code must retain the above copyright notice, this list of conditions and the following disclaimer. * Redistributions in binary form must reproduce the above copyright notice, this list of conditions and the following disclaimer in the documentation and/or other materials provided with the distribution. * Neither the name of Sandia National Laboratories nor Sandia Corporation nor the names of its con- tributors may be used to endorse or promote products derived from this software without specific prior written permission. THIS SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED BY THE COPYRIGHT HOLDERS AND CONTRIBUTORS "AS IS" AND ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE IM- PLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE ARE DISCLAIMED. IN NO EVENT SHALL SANDIA CORPORATION BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, EXEMPLARY, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUD- ING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, PROCUREMENT OF SUBSTITUTE GOODS OR SERVICES; LOSS OF USE, DATA, OR PROFITS; OR BUSINESS INTERRUPTION) HOWEVER CAUSED AND ON ANY THEORY OF LIABILITY, WHETHER IN CONTRACT, STRICT LIABILITY, OR TORT (INCLUDING NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE) ARISING IN ANY WAY OUT OF THE USE OF THIS SOFTWARE, EVEN IF ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGE. ii Acknowledgements This work was supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency through its Office of Research and Development (Interagency Agreement # DW8992192801). The material in this document has been subject to technical and policy review by the U.S. EPA, and approved for publication. The views expressed by individual authors, however, are their own, and do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Mention of trade names, products, or services does not convey official U.S. EPA approval, endorsement, or recommendation. The Water Security Toolkit is an extension of the Threat Ensemble Vulnerability Assessment-Sensor Place- ment Optimization Tool (TEVA-SPOT), which was also developed with funding from the U.S. Environ- mental Protection Agency through its Office of Research and Development (Interagency Agreement # DW8992192801). The authors acknowledge the following individuals for their contributions to the devel- opment of TEVA-SPOT: Jonathan Berry (Sandia National Laboratories), Erik Boman (Sandia National Laboratories), Lee Ann Riesen (Sandia National Laboratories), James Uber (University of Cincinnati), and Jean-Paul Watson (Sandia National Laboratories). iii Acronyms ATUS American Time-Use Survey BLAS Basic linear algebra sub-routines CFU Colony-forming unit CVAR Conditional value at risk CWS Contamination warning system EA Evolutionary algorithm EDS Event detection system EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency EC Extent of Contamination ERD EPANET results database file GLPK GNU Linear Programming Kit GRASP Greedy randomized adaptive sampling process HEX Hexadecimal HTML HyperText markup language INP EPANET input file LP Linear program MC Mass consumed MILP Mixed integer linear program MIP Mixed integer program MSX Multi-species extension for EPANET NFD Number of failed detections NS Number of sensors NZD Non-zero demand PD Population dosed PE Population exposed PK Population killed TAI Threat assessment input file TCE Tailed-conditioned expectation TD Time to detection TEC Timed extent of contamination TEVA Threat ensemble vulnerability assessment TSB Tryptic soy broth TSG Threat scenario generation file TSI Threat simulation input file VAR Value at risk VC Volume consumed WST Water Security Toolkit YML YAML configuration file format for WST iv Symbols Notation Definition Example { , } set brackets { 1,2,3 } means a set containing the values 1,2, and 3. [?] is an element of s [?] S means that s is an element of the set S . [?] for all s = 1 [?] s [?] S means that the statement s = 1 is true for all s in set S . P summation P n i =1 s i means s 1 + s 2 + * * * + s n . \ set minus S \ T means the set that contains all those elements of S that are not in set T . %7C given %7C is used to define conditional probability. P ( s %7C t ) means the prob- ability of s occurring given that t occurs. %7C ... %7C cardinality Cardinality of a set is the number of elements of the set. If set S = { 2,4,6 } , then %7C S %7C = 3. v

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A Stochastic Programming Formulation for Disinfectant Booster Station Placement to Protect Large-Scale Water Distribution Systems

Computer Aided Chemical Engineering

Hackebeil, Gabriel A.; Mann, Angelica V.; Hart, William E.; Klise, Katherine A.; Laird, Carl D.

We present a methodology for optimally locating disinfectant booster stations for response to contamination events in water distribution systems. A stochastic programming problem considering uncertainty in both the location and time of the contamination event is formulated resulting in an extensive form that is equivalent to the weighted maximum coverage problem. Although the original full-space problem is intractably large, we show a series of reductions that reduce the size of the problem by five orders of magnitude and allow solutions of the optimal placement problem for realistically sized water network models. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

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Bayesian data assimilation for stochastic multiscale models of transport in porous media

Lefantzi, Sophia L.; Klise, Katherine A.; Salazar, Luke S.; Mckenna, Sean A.; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart G.; Ray, Jaideep R.

We investigate Bayesian techniques that can be used to reconstruct field variables from partial observations. In particular, we target fields that exhibit spatial structures with a large spectrum of lengthscales. Contemporary methods typically describe the field on a grid and estimate structures which can be resolved by it. In contrast, we address the reconstruction of grid-resolved structures as well as estimation of statistical summaries of subgrid structures, which are smaller than the grid resolution. We perform this in two different ways (a) via a physical (phenomenological), parameterized subgrid model that summarizes the impact of the unresolved scales at the coarse level and (b) via multiscale finite elements, where specially designed prolongation and restriction operators establish the interscale link between the same problem defined on a coarse and fine mesh. The estimation problem is posed as a Bayesian inverse problem. Dimensionality reduction is performed by projecting the field to be inferred on a suitable orthogonal basis set, viz. the Karhunen-Loeve expansion of a multiGaussian. We first demonstrate our techniques on the reconstruction of a binary medium consisting of a matrix with embedded inclusions, which are too small to be grid-resolved. The reconstruction is performed using an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We find that the posterior distributions of the inferred parameters are approximately Gaussian. We exploit this finding to reconstruct a permeability field with long, but narrow embedded fractures (which are too fine to be grid-resolved) using scalable ensemble Kalman filters; this also allows us to address larger grids. Ensemble Kalman filtering is then used to estimate the values of hydraulic conductivity and specific yield in a model of the High Plains Aquifer in Kansas. Strong conditioning of the spatial structure of the parameters and the non-linear aspects of the water table aquifer create difficulty for the ensemble Kalman filter. We conclude with a demonstration of the use of multiscale stochastic finite elements to reconstruct permeability fields. This method, though computationally intensive, is general and can be used for multiscale inference in cases where a subgrid model cannot be constructed.

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Computational thermal, chemical, fluid, and solid mechanics for geosystems management

Martinez, Mario J.; Red-Horse, John R.; Carnes, Brian C.; Mesh, Mikhail M.; Field, Richard V.; Davison, Scott M.; Yoon, Hongkyu Y.; Bishop, Joseph E.; Newell, Pania N.; Notz, Patrick N.; Turner, Daniel Z.; Subia, Samuel R.; Hopkins, Polly L.; Moffat, Harry K.; Jove Colon, Carlos F.; Dewers, Thomas D.; Klise, Katherine A.

This document summarizes research performed under the SNL LDRD entitled - Computational Mechanics for Geosystems Management to Support the Energy and Natural Resources Mission. The main accomplishment was development of a foundational SNL capability for computational thermal, chemical, fluid, and solid mechanics analysis of geosystems. The code was developed within the SNL Sierra software system. This report summarizes the capabilities of the simulation code and the supporting research and development conducted under this LDRD. The main goal of this project was the development of a foundational capability for coupled thermal, hydrological, mechanical, chemical (THMC) simulation of heterogeneous geosystems utilizing massively parallel processing. To solve these complex issues, this project integrated research in numerical mathematics and algorithms for chemically reactive multiphase systems with computer science research in adaptive coupled solution control and framework architecture. This report summarizes and demonstrates the capabilities that were developed together with the supporting research underlying the models. Key accomplishments are: (1) General capability for modeling nonisothermal, multiphase, multicomponent flow in heterogeneous porous geologic materials; (2) General capability to model multiphase reactive transport of species in heterogeneous porous media; (3) Constitutive models for describing real, general geomaterials under multiphase conditions utilizing laboratory data; (4) General capability to couple nonisothermal reactive flow with geomechanics (THMC); (5) Phase behavior thermodynamics for the CO2-H2O-NaCl system. General implementation enables modeling of other fluid mixtures. Adaptive look-up tables enable thermodynamic capability to other simulators; (6) Capability for statistical modeling of heterogeneity in geologic materials; and (7) Simulator utilizes unstructured grids on parallel processing computers.

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CANARY: A water quality event detection algorithm development tool

Restoring Our Natural Habitat - Proceedings of the 2007 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress

Hart, David; Mckenna, Sean A.; Klise, Katherine A.; Cruz, Victoria; Wilson, Mark

The detection of anomalous water quality events has become an increased priority for distribution systems, both for quality of service and security reasons. Because of the high cost associated with false detections, both missed events and false alarms, algorithms which aim to provide event detection aid need to be evaluated and configured properly. CANARY has been developed to provide both real-time, and off-line analysis tools to aid in the development of these algorithms, allowing algorithm developers to focus on the algorithms themselves, rather than on how to read in data and drive the algorithms. Among the features to be discussed and demonstrated are: 1) use of a standard data exchange format for input and output of water quality and operations data streams; 2) the ability to "plug in" various water quality change detection algorithms, both in MATLAB® and compiled library formats for testing and evaluation by using a well defined interface; 3) an "operations mode" to simulate what a utility operator will receive; 4) side-by-side comparison tools for different evaluation metrics, including ROC curves, time to detect, and false alarm rates. Results will be shown using three algorithms previously developed (Klise and McKenna, 2006; McKenna, et al., 2006) using test and real-life data sets. © 2007 ASCE.

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