Over the next three years, the Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) plans to increase utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity from today’s roughly 330MW to about 1600MW. This massive increase in variable generation—from about 15% to 75% of peak load—will require changes in how PNM operates their system. We characterize the 5 and 30-minute solar and wind forecast errors that the system is likely to experience in order to determine the level of reserves needed to counteract such events. Our focus in this study is on negative forecast error (in other words, shortfalls relative to forecast) – whereas excess variable generation can be curtailed if needed, a shortfall must be compensated for to avoid loss of load. Calculating forecast error requires the use of the same forecasting methods that PNM uses or a reasonable approximation thereof. For wind, we use a persistence forecast on actual 5-minute 2019 wind output data (scaled up to reflect the amount of wind capacity planned for 2025). For solar, we use a formula incorporating the clear sky index (CSI) for the forecast. As the solar on the grid now is a small fraction of what is planned for 2025, we generated 5-minute solar data using 2019 weather inputs. We find that to handle 99.9% of the 5-minute negative forecast errors, a maximum of 275MW of variable generation reserve during daylight hours, and a maximum of 75MW during non-daylight hours, should be sufficient. Note that this variable generation reserve is an additional reserve category that specifies reserves over and above what are currently carried for contingency reserve. This would require a significant increase in reserve relative to what PNM currently carries or can call upon from other utilities per reserve sharing agreements. This variable generation reserve specification may overestimate the actual level needed to deal with PNM’s planned variable generation in 2025. The forecasting methodologies used in this study likely underperform PNM’s forecasting – and better forecasting allows for less reserve. To obtain more precise estimates, it is necessary to consider load and use the same forecasting inputs and methods used by PNM.
This report provides a study of the potential impacts of climate change on intermittent renewable energy resources, battery storage, and resource adequacy in Public Service Company of New Mexico’s Integrated Resource Plan for 2020 – 2040. Climate change models and available data were first evaluated to determine uncertainty and potential changes in solar irradiance, temperature, and wind speed in NM in the coming decades. These changes were then implemented in solar and wind energy models to determine impacts on renewable energy resources in NM. Results for the extreme climate-change scenario show that the projected wind power may decrease by ~13% due to projected decreases in wind speed. Projected solar power may decrease by ~4% due to decreases in irradiance and increases in temperature in NM. Uncertainty in these climate-induced changes in wind and solar resources was accommodated in probabilistic models assuming uniform distributions in the annual reductions in solar and wind resources. Uncertainty in battery storage performance was also evaluated based on increased temperature, capacity fade, and degradation in round-trip efficiency. The hourly energy balance was determined throughout the year given uncertainties in the renewable energy resources and energy storage. The loss of load expectation (LOLE) was evaluated for the 2040 No New Combustion portfolio and found to increase from 0 days/year to a median value of ~2 days/year due to potential reductions in renewable energy resources and battery storage performance and capacity. A rank-regression analyses revealed that battery round-trip efficiency was the most significant parameter that impacted LOLE, followed by solar resource, wind resource, and battery fade. An increase in battery storage capacity to ~25,000 – 30,000 MWh from a baseline value of ~14,000 MWh was required to reduce the median value of LOLE to ~0.2 days/year with consideration of potential climate impacts and battery degradation.
The Hawaiian Electric Company intends to procure grid-scale Battery Energy Storage System (“BESS”) capacity. The purpose of this study is to determine whether providing contingency reserve or time-of-day shifting is of more benefit to the Oahu grid, and to better understand the relationship between BESS size and level of benefit. This is an independent study by Sandia, and is not being used to support the regulatory case for BESS capacity by Hawaiian Electric. The study team created a production cost model of the Oahu grid using data primarily from the Hawaiian Electric Company. The proposed BESS supplied contingency reserve in one set of runs and time-of-day shifting in another. Supplying contingency reserve led to larger savings than time-of-day energy shifting. Assuming a renewable reserve and a quick-start reserve, and $15/MMBtu for Low-Sulphur Fuel Oil, the 50-MW/25-MWh, 100-MW/50-MWh, and 150-MW/75-MWh systems supplying contingency reserve provided, respectively, savings of 9.6, 15.6, and 18.3 million USD over system year 2018. Over the range of fuel prices tested, these cost savings were found to be directly proportional to the cost of fuel. As the focus is the operational benefit of BESS capacity, the capacity value of the BESS was not included in benefit calculations.
This report supplements the document, "Protocol for Uniformly Measuring and Expressing the Performance of Energy Storage Systems," issued in a revised version in April 2016 (see [4]), which will include the photovoltaic (PV) smoothing application for an energy storage system (ESS). This report provides the background and documentation associated with the determination of a duty cycle for an ESS operated in a PV smoothing application for the purpose of measuring and expressing ESS performance in accordance with the ESS performance protocol. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of Dr. Imre Gyuk, program manager for the DOE Energy Storage Systems Program. The authors would also like to express their appreciation to all the stakeholders who participated as members of the PV Smoothing Subgroup. Without their thoughtful input and recommendations, the definitions, metrics, and duty cycle provided in this report would not have been possible. A complete listing of members of the PV Smoothing Subgroup appears in the first chapter of this report. Special recognition should go to the staffs at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in collaborating on this effort. In particular, Mr. David Conover and Dr. Vish Viswanathan of PNNL and Dr. Summer Ferreira of SNL were especially helpful in their suggestions for the determination of a duty cycle for the PV Smoothing application.
This report supplements the document, “Protocol for Uniformly Measuring and Expressing the Performance of Energy Storage Systems,” issued in a revised version in April 2016, which will include the renewables (solar) firming application for an energy storage system (ESS). This report provides the background and documentation associated with the determination of a duty cycle for an ESS operated in a renewables (solar) firming application for the purpose of measuring and expressing ESS performance in accordance with the ESS performance protocol.
The purpose of this study is to characterize the technical performance of the PNM Prosperity electricity storage project, and to identify lessons learned that can be used to improve similar projects in the future. The PNM Prosperity electricity storage project consists of a 500 kW/350 kWh advanced lead-acid battery with integrated supercapacitor (for energy smoothing) and a 250 kW/1 MWh advanced lead-acid battery (for energy shifting), and is co-located with a 500 kW solar photovoltaic (PV) resource. The project received American Reinvestment and Recovery Act (ARRA) funding. The smoothing system is e ective in smoothing intermittent PV output. The shifting system exhibits good round-trip efficiencies, though the AC-to-AC annual average efficiency is lower than one might hope. Given the current utilization of the smoothing system, there is an opportunity to incorporate additional control algorithms in order to increase the value of the energy storage system.
This study examines how grid-level electricity storage may benefit the operations of NV Energy, and assesses whether those benefits are likely to justify the cost of the storage system. To determine the impact of grid-level storage, an hourly production cost model of the Nevada Balancing Authority ("BA") as projected for 2020 was created. Storage was found to add value primarily through the provision of regulating reserve. Certain storage resources were found likely to be cost-effective even without considering their capacity value, as long as their effectiveness in providing regulating reserve was taken into account. Giving fast resources credit for their ability to provide regulating reserve is reasonable, given the adoption of FERC Order 755 ("Pay-for-performance"). Using a traditional five-minute test to determine how much a resource can contribute to regulating reserve does not adequately value fast-ramping resources, as the regulating reserve these resources can provide is constrained by their installed capacity. While an approximation was made to consider the additional value provided by a fast-ramping resource, a more precise valuation requires an alternate regulating reserve methodology. Developing and modeling a new regulating reserve methodology for NV Energy was beyond the scope of this study, as was assessing the incremental value of distributed storage.
A natural gas network model was used to assess the likely impact of a scenario San Andreas Fault earthquake on the natural gas network. Two disruption scenarios were examined. The more extensive damage scenario assumes the disruption of all three major corridors bringing gas into southern California. If withdrawals from the Aliso Canyon storage facility are limited to keep the amount of stored gas within historical levels, the disruption reduces Los Angeles Basin gas supplies by 50%. If Aliso Canyon withdrawals are only constrained by the physical capacity of the storage system to withdraw gas, the shortfall is reduced to 25%. This result suggests that it is important for stakeholders to put agreements in place facilitating the withdrawal of Aliso Canyon gas in the event of an emergency.
This report proposes a reformulation of U.S. ISO/RTO-managed wholesale electric power mar- kets for improved reliability and e ciency of system operations. Current markets do not specify or compensate primary frequency response. They also unnecessarily limit the participation of new technologies in reserve markets and o er insu cient economic inducements for new capacity invest- ment. In the proposed market reformulation, energy products are represented as physically-covered rm contracts and reserve products as physically-covered call option contracts. Trading of these products is supported by a backbone of linked ISO/RTO-managed forward markets with planning horizons ranging from multiple years to minutes ahead. A principal advantage of this reformulation is that reserve needs can be speci ed in detail, and resources can o er the services for which they are best suited, without being forced to conform to rigid reserve product de nitions. This should improve the business case for electric energy storage and other emerging technologies to provide reserve. In addition, the facilitation of price discovery should help to ensure e cient energy/reserve procurement and adequate levels of new capacity investment.
This study evaluates the business case for additional bulk electric energy storage in the Southern Company service territory for the year 2020. The model was used to examine how system operations are likely to change as additional storage is added. The storage resources were allowed to provide energy time shift, regulation reserve, and spinning reserve services. Several storage facilities, including pumped hydroelectric systems, flywheels, and bulk-scale batteries, were considered. These scenarios were tested against a range of sensitivities: three different natural gas price assumptions, a 15% decrease in coal-fired generation capacity, and a high renewable penetration (10% of total generation from wind energy). Only in the elevated natural gas price sensitivities did some of the additional bulk-scale storage projects appear justifiable on the basis of projected production cost savings. Enabling existing peak shaving hydroelectric plants to provide regulation and spinning reserve, however, is likely to provide savings that justify the project cost even at anticipated natural gas price levels. Transmission and distribution applications of storage were not examined in this study. Allowing new storage facilities to serve both bulk grid and transmission/distribution-level needs may provide for increased benefit streams, and thus make a stronger business case for additional storage.
This report investigates strategies to mitigate anticipated wind energy curtailment on Maui, with a focus on grid-level energy storage technology. The study team developed an hourly production cost model of the Maui Electric Company (MECO) system, with an expected 72 MW of wind generation and 15 MW of distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation in 2015, and used this model to investigate strategies that mitigate wind energy curtailment. It was found that storage projects can reduce both wind curtailment and the annual cost of producing power, and can do so in a cost-effective manner. Most of the savings achieved in these scenarios are not from replacing constant-cost diesel-fired generation with wind generation. Instead, the savings are achieved by the more efficient operation of the conventional units of the system. Using additional storage for spinning reserve enables the system to decrease the amount of spinning reserve provided by single-cycle units. This decreases the amount of generation from these units, which are often operated at their least efficient point (at minimum load). At the same time, the amount of spinning reserve from the efficient combined-cycle units also decreases, allowing these units to operate at higher, more efficient levels.
In order to better understand how the US natural gas network might respond to disruptions, a model was created that represents the network on a regional basis. Natural gas storage for each region is represented as a stock. Transmission between each region is represented as a flow, as is natural gas production, importation, and consumption. Various disruption scenarios were run to test the robustness of the network. The system as modeled proved robust to a variety of disruption scenarios. However, a weakness of the system is that production shortfalls or interruptions cannot be replaced, and demand must therefore be reduced by the amount of the shortfall.