PV Value - A Discounted Cash Flow Approach to Valuing Solar Photovoltaic Systems on Residential and Commercial Properties
Appraisal Journal
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Appraisal Journal
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Environmental Science and Technology
Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) has important implications relative to future thermoelectric water use. A bounding analysis is performed using past greenhouse gas emission policy proposals and assumes either all effected capacity retires (lower water use bound) or is retrofitted (upper bound). The analysis is performed in the context of recent trends in electric power generation expansion, namely high penetration of natural gas and renewables along with constrained cooling system options. Results indicate thermoelectric freshwater withdrawals nationwide could increase by roughly 1% or decrease by up to 60% relative to 2009 levels, while consumption could increase as much as 21% or decrease as much as 28%. To identify where changes in freshwater use might be problematic at a regional level, electric power production has been mapped onto watersheds with limited water availability (where consumption exceeds 70% of gauged streamflow). Results suggest that between 0.44 and 0.96 Mm3/d of new thermoelectric freshwater consumption could occur in watersheds with limited water availability, while power plant retirements in these watersheds could yield 0.90 to 1.0 Mm3/d of water savings.
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As large utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) facilities are currently being built and planned for locations in the U.S. with the greatest solar resource potential, an understanding of water use for construction and operations is needed as siting tends to target locations with low natural rainfall and where most existing freshwater is already appropriated. Using methods outlined by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to determine water used in designated solar energy zones (SEZs) for construction and operations & maintenance, an estimate of water used over the lifetime at the solar power plant is determined and applied to each watershed in six Southwestern states. Results indicate that that PV systems overall use little water, though construction usage is high compared to O&M water use over the lifetime of the facility. Also noted is a transition being made from wet cooled to dry cooled CSP facilities that will significantly reduce operational water use at these facilities. Using these water use factors, estimates of future water demand for current and planned solar development was made. In efforts to determine where water could be a limiting factor in solar energy development, water availability, cost, and projected future competing demands were mapped for the six Southwestern states. Ten watersheds, 9 in California, and one in New Mexico were identified as being of particular concern because of limited water availability.
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Water resource management requires collaborative solutions that cross institutional and political boundaries. This work describes the development and use of a computer-based tool for assessing the impact of additional water allocation from the Gila River and the San Francisco River prescribed in the 2004 Arizona Water Settlements Act. Between 2005 and 2010, Sandia National Laboratories engaged concerned citizens, local water stakeholders, and key federal and state agencies to collaboratively create the Gila-San Francisco Decision Support Tool. Based on principles of system dynamics, the tool is founded on a hydrologic balance of surface water, groundwater, and their associated coupling between water resources and demands. The tool is fitted with a user interface to facilitate sensitivity studies of various water supply and demand scenarios. The model also projects the consumptive use of water in the region as well as the potential CUFA (Consumptive Use and Forbearance Agreement which stipulates when and where Arizona Water Settlements Act diversions can be made) diversion over a 26-year horizon. Scenarios are selected to enhance our understanding of the potential human impacts on the rivers ecological health in New Mexico; in particular, different case studies thematic to water conservation, water rights, and minimum flow are tested using the model. The impact on potential CUFA diversions, agricultural consumptive use, and surface water availability are assessed relative to the changes imposed in the scenarios. While it has been difficult to gage the acceptance level from the stakeholders, the technical information that the model provides are valuable for facilitating dialogues in the context of the new settlement.
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Proposed for publication in Hydrogeology Journal.
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