Publications

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

The PV lifetime project must select a sample size (number of PV modules) for each PV system to be deployed. In this memorandum, we show how the uncertainty in measured degradation depends on the selected sample size.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

We describe and compare two methods for modeling irradiance on the back surface of rack-mounted bifacial PV modules: view factor models and ray-tracing simulations. For each method we formulate one or more models and compare each model with irradiance measurements and short circuit current for a bifacial module mounted a fixed tilt rack with three other similarly sized modules. Our analysis illustrates the computational requirements of the different methods and provides insight into their practical applications. We find a level of consistency among the models which indicates that consistent models may be obtained by parameter calibrations.

Short circuit current (Isc) depends on the effective irradiance incident upon a PV module. Effective irradiance is highly correlated with broadband irradiance, but can vary slightly as the spectral content of the incident light changes. We explore using a few spectral wavelengths with broadband irradiance to predict Isc for ten modules of varying technologies (silicon, CIGS, CdTe). The goal is to identify a few spectral wavelengths that could be easily (and economically) measured to improve PV performance modeling.

The Sandia Array Performance Model (SAPM), a semi-empirical model for predicting PV system power, has been in use for more than a decade. While several studies have presented laboratory intercomparisons of measurements and analysis, detailed procedures for determining model coefficients have never been published. Independent test laboratories must develop in-house procedures to determine SAPM coefficients, which contributes to uncertainty in the resulting models. In response to requests from commercial laboratories and module manufacturers, Sandia has formally documented the measurement and analysis methods as a supplement to the original model description. In this paper we present a description of the measurement procedures and an example analysis for calibrating the SAPM.

Commonly used performance models, such as PVsyst, Sandia Array Performance Model (SAPM), and PV LIB, treat the PV array as being constructed of identical modules. Each of the models attempts to account for mismatch losses by applying a simple percent reduction factor to the overall estimated power. The present work attempted to reduce uncertainty of mismatch losses by determining a representative set of performance coefficients for the SAPM that were developed from a characterization of a sample of modules. This approach was compared with current practice, where only a single module’s thermal and electrical properties are testing. However, the results indicate that minimal to no improvements in model predictions were achieved.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

We describe the method used to simulate one year of AC power at one-minute intervals for a large collection of hypothetical utility-scale photovoltaic plants of varying size, employing either fixed-tilt PV modules or single-axis tracking, and for distribution-connected photovoltaic (DPV) power systems assumed for a number of metropolitan areas. We also describe the simulation of an accompanying day-ahead forecast of hourly AC power for utility-scale plants and DPV systems such that forecast errors are consistent with errors reported for current forecasting methods. The results of these simulations are intended for use in a study that examines the possible effects of increased levels of photovoltaic (PV) generation bulk on power variability within the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and Southern Company service territories.

The Sandia Array Performance Model (SAPM), a semi-empirical model for predicting PV system power, has been in use for more than a decade. While several studies have presented comparisons of measurements and analysis results among laboratories, detailed procedures for determining model coefficients have not yet been published. Independent test laboratories must develop in-house procedures to determine SAPM coefficients, which contributes to uncertainty in the resulting models. Here we present a standard procedure for calibrating the SAPM using outdoor electrical and meteorological measurements. Analysis procedures are illustrated with data measured outdoors for a 36-cell silicon photovoltaic module.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

We present a simple algorithm for identifying periods of time with broadband global horizontal irradiance (GHI) similar to that occurring during clear sky conditions from a time series of GHI measurements. Other available methods to identify these periods do so by identifying periods with clear sky conditions using additional measurements, such as direct or diffuse irradiance. Our algorithm compares characteristics of the time series of measured GHI with the output of a clear sky model without requiring additional measurements. We validate our algorithm using data from several locations by comparing our results with those obtained from a clear sky detection algorithm, and with satellite and ground-based sky imagery.

Abstract not provided.

Air mass modifiers are frequently used to represent the effects of solar spectrum on PV module current. Existing PV module performance models assume a single empirical expression, a polynomial in air mass, for all locations and times. In this paper, air mass modifiers are estimated for several modules of different types from IV curves measured with the modules at fixed orientation in three climatically different locations around the United States. Systematic variation is found in the effect of solar spectrum on PV module current that is not well approximated by the standard air mass modifier polynomial.

The SunShot Initiative coordinates research, development, demonstration, and deployment activities aimed at dramatically reducing the total installed cost of solar power. The SunShot Initiative focuses on removing critical technical and non-technical barriers to installing and integrating solar energy into the electricity grid. Uncertainty in projected power and energy production from solar power systems contributes to these barriers by increasing financial risks to photovoltaic (PV) deployment and by exacerbating the technical challenges to integration of solar power on the electricity grid.

PV performance models are used to quantify the value of PV plants in a given location. They combine the performance characteristics of the system, the measured or predicted irradiance and weather at a site, and the system configuration and design into a prediction of the amount of energy that will be produced by a PV system. These predictions must be as accurate as possible in order for finance charges to be minimized. Higher accuracy equals lower project risk. The Increasing Prediction Accuracy project at Sandia focuses on quantifying and reducing uncertainties in PV system performance models.