A series of reactive-transport models of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) were constructed using the reactive transport code PFLOTRAN to examine the effect of matrix thermal contraction and mineral dissolution/precipitation on fracture flow in the context of grid cell size and model complexity. It was found that for thermal drawdown at production well, the impact of fracture zone grid cell size is negligible.
This report summarizes important nuances in local water concerns and potential climate impacts that could influence the roll-out of technologies associated with energy transitions. Current investments in clean energy technologies are very high, which is driving a lot of investments in related manufacturing (i.e., hydrogen, solar, wind, and batteries) and mining (e.g., lithium, copper, and graphite) around the world. To understand how water and climate dynamics could be influencing these activities, we conducted a phased literature review for three countries: China, Germany, and France. China was selected due to its global dominance in manufacturing of solar panels, batteries, and electrolyzers as well as production of rare earth elements while Germany and France were selected due to their emerging leadership in energy transitions-related manufacturing within the European Union. For each of these three nations, we identified areas where manufacturing is occurring within the country and then evaluated relevant water resources and climate impacts. Multiple sources were consulted for this review, including BloombergNEF, international reports, industry sources, peer-reviewed literature, climate data, and media coverage.
An existing shared risk framework designed for assessing and comparing threat-based risks to water utilities is being extended to incorporate electric power. An important differentiating characteristic of this framework is the use of a system-centric rather than an asset-centric approach. This approach allows anonymous sharing of results and enables comparison of assessments across different utilities within an infrastructure sector. By allowing utility owners to compare their assessments with others, they can improve their self-assessments and identification of "unknown unknowns". This document provides an approach for extension of the framework to electric power, including treatment of dependencies and interdependencies. The systems, threats, and mathematical description of associated risks used in a prototype framework are provided. The method is extensible so that additional infrastructure sectors can be incorporated. Preliminary results for a proof of concept calculation are provided.
Schwering, Paul C.; Lowry, Thomas S.; Hinz, Nicholas; Matson, Gabe; Sabin, Andrew; Blake, Kelly; Zimmerman, Jade; Sewell, Steven; Cumming, William
The Basin & Range Investigations for Developing Geothermal Energy (BRIDGE) Project kicked off in the Autumn of 2021. The Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) funded BRIDGE as part of a broader GTO initiative to advance the identification and development of hidden, or “blind”, geothermal energy resources in the Basin and Range Province (Basin & Range) of the western USA. The BRIDGE Team is a collaboration being led by Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) with partners from Geologica Geothermal Group, the US Navy Geothermal Program Office, and others that will contribute to various stages of the project. The focus of this project is on Western Nevada with areas of interest, identified chiefly from the prior Nevada Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) study, located primarily in Churchill and Mineral Counties including lands managed by the Department of Defense (DOD). The first stage of BRIDGE is focused on reconnaissance of PFA targets that are suspected or known to be associated with hidden geothermal resources on DOD and surrounding lands. Helicopter-borne transient electromagnetism (HTEM) surveying is being used in a novel conceptual approach for optimizing shallow and deep well targeting in Basin & Range geothermal exploration. This reconnaissance phase is part of the overall BRIDGE workflow: 1. Assess the pre-survey likelihood of geothermal systems in the study area based on PFA reviews and a reanalysis of existing information to constrain subsurface temperature, structure, hydrology, and thermal manifestations. 2. Design and execute HTEM resistivity surveying to image the depth to the low resistivity and low permeability clay cap, within which a thermally conductive (linear) temperature gradient could be targeted for drilling, and potentially image the underlying higher resistivity associated with shallow aquifers hosting outflows from deeper geothermal systems. 3. Drill temperature gradient (TG) wells that penetrate a thick enough section of the clay cap detected by HTEM surveying to provide a linear thermal gradient that could be reliably extrapolated to the base of the cap. 4. In areas where the TG wells detected a prospective temperature gradient but where the HTEM survey did not penetrate to the base of the cap, conduct surface magnetotelluric (MT) resistivity surveys to image the base of the cap to identify the depth to which the linear TG well gradient could be reliably extrapolated. 5. On the most prospective target(s), drill at least one testable slim hole well to discover the resource associated with the interpreted geothermal reservoir upflow source. The first stage of the project and the second stage HTEM survey have been completed. Preliminary results are being analyzed with respect to potential TG targets and plans for followup surveys, geophysical joint inversion, conceptual model development, and interpretation.
There are an estimated 48,745 wells producing oil or gas in New Mexico as of August 8, 2020 and with advances in drilling and oil recovery technology the use of hydraulic fracturing has become more commonplace. With a typical well requiring 1.5 to 16 million gallons of water, there is an increased demand for water in the Permian Basin and concern over the regions ability to meet this demand. This report is an addendum to the 2018 report Water Resource Assessment in the New Mexico Permian Basin (SAND2018-12018) to monitor baseline water level and chemistry data established in the original report. Results from this addendum can be used to further understand regional water supply and demands and aid in the BLMs mission of sustainably meeting the needs of water users while protecting human and environmental health.
Significant costs can be related to losing circulation of drilling fluids in geothermal drilling. This paper is the second of four case studies of geothermal fields operated by Ormat Technologies, directed at forming a comprehensive strategy to characterize and address lost circulation in varying conditions, and examines the geologic context of and common responses to lost circulation in the loosely consolidated, shallow sedimentary reservoir of the Don A. Campbell geothermal field. The Don A. Campbell Geothermal Field is in the SW portion of Gabbs Valley in NV, along the eastern margin of the Central Walker Lane shear zone. The reservoir here is shallow and primarily in the basin fill, which is hydrothermally altered along fault zones. Wells in this reservoir are highly productive (250-315 L/s) with moderate temperatures (120-125 °C) and were drilled to an average depth of ~1500 ft (450 m). Lost circulation is frequently reported beginning at depths of about 800 ft, slightly shallower than the average casing shoe depth of 900- 1000 ft (275-305 m). Reports of lost circulation frequently coincide with drilling through silicified basin fill. Strategies to address lost circulation differ above and below the cased interval; bentonite chips were used at shallow depths and aerated, gelled drilling fluids were used in the production intervals. Further study of this and other areas will contribute to developing a systematic understanding of geologic contextual-informed lost circulation mitigation strategies.
Significant costs can be related to losing circulation of drilling fluids in geothermal drilling. This paper is the second of four case studies of geothermal fields operated by Ormat Technologies, directed at forming a comprehensive strategy to characterize and address lost circulation in varying conditions, and examines the geologic context of and common responses to lost circulation in the loosely consolidated, shallow sedimentary reservoir of the Don A. Campbell geothermal field. The Don A. Campbell Geothermal Field is in the SW portion of Gabbs Valley in NV, along the eastern margin of the Central Walker Lane shear zone. The reservoir here is shallow and primarily in the basin fill, which is hydrothermally altered along fault zones. Wells in this reservoir are highly productive (250-315 L/s) with moderate temperatures (120-125 °C) and were drilled to an average depth of ~1500 ft (450 m). Lost circulation is frequently reported beginning at depths of about 800 ft, slightly shallower than the average casing shoe depth of 900- 1000 ft (275-305 m). Reports of lost circulation frequently coincide with drilling through silicified basin fill. Strategies to address lost circulation differ above and below the cased interval; bentonite chips were used at shallow depths and aerated, gelled drilling fluids were used in the production intervals. Further study of this and other areas will contribute to developing a systematic understanding of geologic contextual-informed lost circulation mitigation strategies.
For over 50 years, performance assessment (PA) has been used throughout the world to inform decisions concerning the storage and management of radioactive waste. Some of the applications of PA include environmental assessments of nuclear disposal sites, development of methodologies and regulations for the long-term storage of nuclear waste, regulatory assessment for site selection and licensing at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant and Yucca Mountain, and safety assessments for nuclear reactors. PA begins with asking the following questions: 1) What can happen? 2) How likely is it to happen? 3) What are the consequences when it does happen? and 4) What is the uncertainty of the first three questions? This work presents an approach for applying PA methodologies to geothermal resource evaluation that is adaptable and conformable to all phases of geothermal energy production. It provides a consistent and transparent framework for organizing data and information in a manner that supports decision making and accounts for uncertainties. The process provides a better understanding of the underlying risks that can jeopardize the development and/or performance of a geothermal project and identifies the best pathways for reducing or eliminating those risks. The approach is demonstrated through hypothetical examples of both hydrothermal and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS).
The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition (SFWD), has been conducting research and development on generic deep geologic disposal systems (i.e., geologic repositories). This report describes specific activities in the Fiscal Year (FY) 2020 associated with the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Repository Systems Analysis (RSA) work package within the SFWST Campaign. The overall objective of the GDSA RSA work package is to develop generic deep geologic repository concepts and system performance assessment (PA) models in several host-rock environments, and to simulate and analyze these generic repository concepts and models using the GDSA Framework toolkit, and other tools as needed.
Lowry, Thomas S.; Ayling, Bridget; Hinz, Nicholas; Sabin, Andrew; Arguello, Raymond; Blake, Kelly; Tiedeman, Andy
The Hawthorne Nevada, deep direct-use geothermal study is a two-year effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy to determine the techno-economic feasibility of implementing a large-scale, direct-use facility for the Hawthorne Army Depot (HAD) and the public facilities of the city of Hawthorne and Mineral County. The approach links a production side analysis (PSA) and a demand side analysis (DSA) into a whole-system analysis (WSA) to provide an integrated assessment of the resource and the probability of delivering economically viable direct-use energy to Hawthorne. Hawthorne, Nevada is in the western part of the Basin and Range province and has been the focus of geothermal investigations for over 40 years. Over the last 15 years, several studies completed by the U.S. Navy Geothermal Program Office (GPO) in conjunction with industry professionals quantified the existence of several low temperature geothermal prospects, the most promising of which is called Prospect A. The promise of Prospect A is based on drilling and flow testing that produced ~100 °C water at flow rates of up to 31 l/s (500 gallons per minute). Measured productivity indexes range from 40-85 l/s/MPa, suggesting a warm and productive heat source. Despite the promise of the resource, uncertainties in its spatial extent and long-term sustainability mean that techno-economic analyses must include probabilities of the sustainability of the resource under different operating scenarios. Here, the PSA is conducted by integrating a wide range of disparate data to estimate lognormal P90, P50, and P10 resource capacities. These capacities are used as input to a thermal-hydrologic (T-H) model to estimate thermal drawdown for each capacity estimate for several different DSA scenarios. Using a systems-based approach, the WSA links the dynamic T-H simulations of the PSA/DSA combinations with the techno-economic model GEOPHIRES to account for both the temporal dynamics and uncertainties in the system to produce probabilistic distributions of several performance metrics including the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) and the return on investment (ROI). This report is the final delivery for the project and documents the study's activities and results.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The report provides simplified algorithms with which anyone on any country can determine their risk from climate change and to include in resilience evaluations. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition (SFWD), has been conducting research and development on generic deep geologic disposal systems (i.e., geologic repositories). This report describes specific activities in fiscal year (FY) 2019 associated with FY19 Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Repository Systems Analysis (RSA) work package within the SFWST Campaign. The overall objective of the GDSA RSA work package is to develop generic deep geologic repository concepts and system performance assessment (PA) models in several host-rock environments, and to simulate and analyze these generic repository concepts and models using the GDSA Framework toolkit, and other tools as needed.
Risk assessment plays a vital role in protecting our nation's critical infrastructure. Traditionally, such assessments have been conducted as a singular activity confined to the boarders of a particular asset or utility with little external sharing of information. In contrast other domains, e.g., disaster preparedness, cyber security, food-borne hazards, have demonstrated the benefits of sharing data, experiences and lessons learned in assessing and managing risk. Here we explore the concept of a Shared Risk Framework (SRF) in the context of critical infrastructure assessments. In this exploration, key elements of an SRF are introduced and initial instantiations demonstrated by way of three water utility assessments. Results from these three demonstrations were then combined with results from four other risk assessments developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts. Through this comparison we were able to explore potential challenges and benefits from implementation of a SRF. Challenges included both the capacity and interest of local utilities to conduct a shared risk assessment; particularly, wide scale adoption of any SRF will require a clear demonstration that such an effort supports the basic mission of the utility, adds benefit to the utility, and protects utility data from unintended access or misuse. In terms of benefits, anonymous sharing of results among utilities could provide the added benefits of recognizing and correcting bias; identifying ‘unknown, unknowns’; assisting self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility; and providing a basis for treating shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities.
The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Depat ment of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Fuel Cycle Technology (OFCT) is conducting research and development (R&D) on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high level nuclear waste (HLW). Two high priorities for SFWST disposal R&D are design concept development and disposal system modeling (DOE 2011, Table 6). These priorities are directly addressed in the SFWST Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) work package, which is charged with developing a disposal system modeling and analysis capability for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media. This report describes specific GDSA activities in fiscal year 2018 (FY 2018) toward the development of GDSA Framework, an enhanced disposal system modeling and analysis capability for geologic disposal of nuclear waste. GDSA Framework employs the PFLOTRAN thermal-hydrologic-chemical multiphysics code (Hammond et al. 2011a; Lichtner and Hammond 2012) and the Dakota uncertainty sampling and propagation code (Adams et al. 2012; Adams et al. 2013). Each code is designed for massivelyparallel processing in a high-performance computing (HPC) environment. Multi-physics representations in PFLOTRAN are used to simulate various coupled processes including heat flow, fluid flow, waste dissolution, radionuclide release, radionuclide decay and ingrowth, precipitation and dissolution of secondary phases, and radionuclide transport through engineered barriers and natural geologic barriers to the biosphere. Dakota is used to generate sets of representative realizations and to analyze parameter sensitivity.
Advancements in directional drilling and well completion technologies have resulted in an exponential growth in the use of hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas extraction. Within the New Mexico Permian Basin, water demand to complete each hydraulically fractured well is estimated to average 7.3 acre-feet (2.4 million gallons), resulting in an increase to the regional water demand of over 5000 acre-feet per year. This rising demand is creating concern for the regions ability to meet the demand in a manner that fulfills BLM's role of protecting human health and the environment while sustainably meeting the needs of various of water users in the region. This report documents a study that establishes a water-level and chemistry baseline and develops a modeling tool to aid the BLM in understanding the regional water supply dynamics under different management, policy, and growth scenarios and to pre-emptively identify risks to water sustainability.
This report documents the key findings from the Reservoir Maintenance and Development (RM&D) Task of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE), Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) Geothermal Vision Study (GeoVision Study). The GeoVision Study had the objective of conduc ting analyses of future geothermal growth based on sets of current and future geothermal technology developments. The RM&D Task is one of seven tasks within the GeoVision Study with the others being, Exploration and Confirmation, Potential to Penetration, Institutional Market Barriers, Environmental and Social Impacts, Thermal Applications, and Hybrid Systems. The full set of findings and the details of the GeoVision Study can be found in the final GeoVision Study report on the DOE-GTO website. As applied here, RM&D refers to the activities associated with developing, exploiting, and maintaining a known geothermal resource. It assumes that the site has already been vetted and that the resource has been evaluated to be of sufficient quality to move towards full-scale development. It also assumes that the resource is to be developed for power generation, as opposed to low-temperature or direct use applications. This document presents the key factors influencing RM&D from both a technological and operational standpoint and provides a baseline of its current state. It also looks forward to describe areas of research and development that must be pursued if the development geothermal energy is to reach its full potential.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconom ic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This study presents a conceptual framework for capturing the spatial and temporal aspects of non-market dimensions of value (DOV) and how they vary as the result of policy changes for hydropower generation and developed water uses. The foundation of this project is a literature review that reveals that focused, sector specific valuations are no longer adequate if the goal is to provide decision makers with a complete understanding of their decisions. Rather, estimates of non-market values for informing decisions regarding dam operations and/or other water management alternatives must consider the entire spectrum of market and non-market values, and the tradeoffs (both positive and negative) between those values over time and space, while considering shifting preferences in an uncertain environment. This document describes the history and reasoning for these conclusions and presents a conceptual framework for understanding non-market values as a function of changes to hydropower operations and water resources management.
Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.
This document provides a brief narrative, and selected project descriptions, that represent Sandia’s history involving data, modeling, and analysis related to water, energy-water nexus, and energy-water-agriculture nexus within the context of climate change. Sandia National Laboratories has been engaged since the early-1990s with program development involving data, modeling, and analysis projects that address the interdependent issues, risks, and technology-based mitigations associated with increasing demands and stresses being placed on energy, water, and agricultural/food resources, and the related impacts on their security and sustainability in the face of both domestic and global population growth, expanding economic development, and climate change.
Modeling of heat extraction in Enhanced Geothermal Systems is presented. The study builds on recent studies on the use of directional wells to improve heat transfer between doublet injection and production wells. The current study focuses on the influence of fracture orientation on production temperature in deep low permeability geothermal systems, and the effects of directional drilling and separation distance between boreholes on heat extraction. The modeling results indicate that fracture orientation with respect to the well-pair plane has significant influence on reservoir thermal drawdown. The vertical well doublet is impacted significantly more than the horizontal well doublet.
This paper is the output from SNL’s involvement in the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA), the Colorado River Energy Distributors Association (CREDA), and the Upper Colorado River Commission’s (UCRC) sponsored Phase II work to establish market and non-market values (NMV’s) of water and hydropower associated with Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) operations and the Colorado River ecosystem. It describes the purpose and need to develop a systems model for the Colorado River Basin that includes valuations in the economic, hydrologic, environmental, social, and cultural sectors. It outlines the benefits and unique features associated with such a model and provides a roadmap of how a systems model would be developed and implemented. While not meant to serve as a full development plan, the ideas and concepts herein represent what the Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) research team believes is the most impactful and effective path forward to address an ever increasing complex set of problems that occur at the basin-scale and beyond.
This work was partially supported by the Sandia National Laboratories, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) fellowship program in conjunction with Texas A&M University (TAMU). The research described herein is the work of Kathryn M. Schreiner (Katie) and her advisor, Thomas S. Bianchi and represents a concise description of Katies dissertation that was submitted to the TAMU Office of Graduate Studies in May 2013 in partial fulfillment of her doctorate of philosophy degree. High Arctic permafrost soils contain a massive amount of organic carbon, accounting for twice as much carbon as what is currently stored as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. However, with current warming trends this sink is in danger of thawing and potentially releasing large amounts of carbon as both carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere. It is difficult to make predictions about the future of this sink without knowing how it has reacted to past temperature and climate changes. This project investigated long term, fine scale particulate organic carbon (POC) delivery by the high-Arctic Colville River into Simpsons Lagoon in the near-shore Beaufort Sea. Modern POC was determined to be a mixture of three sources (riverine soils, coastal erosion, and marine). Downcore POC measurements were performed in a core close to the Colville River output and a core close to intense coastal erosion. Inputs of the three major sources were found to vary throughout the last two millennia, and in the Colville River core covary significantly with Alaskan temperature reconstructions.
This report presents the results from the hydrological, ecological, and renewable energy assessments conducted by Sandia National Laboratories at the ByWater Lakes site in Espanola, New Mexico for ByWater Recreation LLC and Avanyu Energy Services through the New Mexico small business assistance (NMSBA) program. Sandia's role was to assess the viability and provide perspective for enhancing the site to take advantage of renewable energy resources, improve and sustain the natural systems, develop a profitable operation, and provide an asset for the local community. Integral to this work was the identification the pertinent data and data gaps as well as making general observations about the potential issues and concerns that may arise from further developing the site. This report is informational only with no consideration with regards to the business feasibility of the various options that ByWater and Avanyu may be pursuing.
This work develops a new approach for generating stochastic permeability fields from complex three-dimensional fracture networks to support physical and economic performance analyses of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). The approach represents multiple fracture sets with different dips, orientations, apertures, spacing, and lengths by homogenizing discrete fracture permeabilities onto a regular grid using continuum methods. A previously developed algorithm is used for combining multiple fracture sets at arbitrary orientations into a full anisotropic permeability tensor for every grid block. Fracture properties for each grid cell can either be independently specified or spatially correlated using a variety of probability distributions. The generated stochastic permeability fields are used in mass and heat transport models to represent a variety of complex fracture networks to provide realistic simulations of long-term thermal performance.
This work develops a new approach for generating stochastic permeability fields from complex three-dimensional fracture networks to support physical and economic performance analyses of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). The approach represents multiple fracture sets with different dips, orientations, apertures, spacing, and lengths by homogenizing discrete fracture permeabilities onto a regular grid using continuum methods. A previously developed algorithm is used for combining multiple fracture sets at arbitrary orientations into a full anisotropic permeability tensor for every grid block. Fracture properties for each grid cell can either be independently specified or spatially correlated using a variety of probability distributions. The generated stochastic permeability fields are used in mass and heat transport models to represent a variety of complex fracture networks to provide realistic simulations of long-term thermal performance.
The complexity of water resource issues, its interconnectedness to other systems, and the involvement of competing stakeholders often overwhelm decision-makers and inhibit the creation of clear management strategies. While a range of modeling tools and procedures exist to address these problems, they tend to be case specific and generally emphasize either a quantitative and overly analytic approach or present a qualitative dialogue-based approach lacking the ability to fully explore consequences of different policy decisions. The integration of these two approaches is needed to drive toward final decisions and engender effective outcomes. Given these limitations, the Computer Assisted Dispute Resolution system (CADRe) was developed to aid in stakeholder inclusive resource planning. This modeling and negotiation system uniquely addresses resource concerns by developing a spatially varying system dynamics model as well as innovative global optimization search techniques to maximize outcomes from participatory dialogues. Ultimately, the core system architecture of CADRe also serves as the cornerstone upon which key scientific innovation and challenges can be addressed.