Organic materials are an attractive choice for structural components due to their light weight and versatility. However, because they decompose at low temperatures relative to traditional materials, they pose a safety risk due to fire and loss of structural integrity. To quantify this risk, analysts use chemical kinetics models to describe the material pyrolysis and oxidation using thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). This process requires the calibration of many model parameters to closely match experimental data. Previous efforts in this field have largely been limited to finding a single best-fit set of parameters even though the experimental data may be very noisy. Furthermore, the chemical kinetics models are often simplified representations of the true decomposition process. The simplification induces model-form errors that the fitting process cannot capture. In this work, we propose a methodology for calibrating decomposition models to TGA data that accounts for uncertainty in the model-form and experimental data simultaneously. The methodology is applied to the decomposition of a carbon fiber epoxy composite with a three-stage reaction network and Arrhenius kinetics. The results show a good overlap between the model predictions and TGA data. Uncertainty bounds capture deviations of the model from the data. The calibrated parameter distributions are also presented. The distributions may be used in forward propagation of uncertainty in models that leverage this material.
Data from four TGA experiments conducted at Sandia National Laboratories was used for determination of a pyrolysis model using a commercial thermokinetics program developed by Netzsch Instruments (Kinetics NEO, version 2.1). The data measured at 1 K/min and the average of three measurements at 50 K/min were used as input into Kinetics NEO. The model was developed using data in the range 373 to 773 K. An initial estimate of the energy of activation (E) and pre-exponential constant (A) were determined from the model-free Friedman approach.
Polymer foam encapsulants provide mechanical, electrical, and thermal isolation in engineered systems. It can be advantageous to surround objects of interest, such as electronics, with foams in a hermetically sealed container to protect the electronics from hostile en vironments, such as a crash that produces a fire. However, i n fire environments, gas pressure from thermal decomposition of foams can cause mechanical failure of the sealed system . In this work, a detailed study of thermally decomposing polymeric methylene diisocyanate (PMDI) - polyether - polyol based polyurethane foam in a sealed container is presented . Both experimental and computational work is discussed. Three models of increasing physics fidelity are presented: No Flow, Porous Media, and Porous Media with VLE. Each model us described in detail, compared to experiment , and uncertainty quantification is performed. While the Porous Media with VLE model matches has the best agreement with experiment, it also requires the most computational resources.