Publications

Previous work on sample design has been focused on constructing designs for samples taken at point locations. Significantly less work has been done on sample design for data collected along transects. A review of approaches to point and transect sampling design shows that transects can be considered as a sequential set of point samples. Any two sampling designs can be compared through using each one to predict the value of the quantity being measured on a fixed reference grid. The quality of a design is quantified in two ways: computing either the sum or the product of the eigenvalues of the variance matrix of the prediction error. An important aspect of this analysis is that the reduction of the mean prediction error variance (MPEV) can be calculated for any proposed sample design, including one with straight and/or meandering transects, prior to taking those samples. This reduction in variance can be used as a ''stopping rule'' to determine when enough transect sampling has been completed on the site. Two approaches for the optimization of the transect locations are presented. The first minimizes the sum of the eigenvalues of the predictive error, and the second minimizes the product of these eigenvalues. Simulated annealing is used to identify transect locations that meet either of these objectives. This algorithm is applied to a hypothetical site to determine the optimal locations of two iterations of meandering transects given a previously existing straight transect. The MPEV calculation is also used on both a hypothetical site and on data collected at the Isleta Pueblo to evaluate its potential as a stopping rule. Results show that three or four rounds of systematic sampling with straight parallel transects covering 30 percent or less of the site, can reduce the initial MPEV by as much as 90 percent. The amount of reduction in MPEV can be used as a stopping rule, but the relationship between MPEV and the results of excavation versus no-further-action decisions is site specific and cannot be calculated prior to the sampling. It may be advantageous to use the reduction in MPEV as a stopping rule for systematic sampling across the site that can then be followed by focused sampling in areas identified has having UXO during the systematic sampling. The techniques presented here provide answers to the questions of ''Where to sample?'' and ''When to stop?'' and are capable of running in near real time to support iterative site characterization campaigns.

Abstract not provided.

As demonstrated by the anthrax attack through the United States mail, people infected by the biological agent itself will give the first indication of a bioterror attack. Thus, a distributed information system that can rapidly and efficiently gather and analyze public health data would aid epidemiologists in detecting and characterizing emerging diseases, including bioterror attacks. We propose using clusters of adverse health events in space and time to detect possible bioterror attacks. Space-time clusters can indicate exposure to infectious diseases or localized exposure to toxins. Most space-time clustering approaches require individual patient data. To protect the patient's privacy, we have extended these approaches to aggregated data and have embedded this extension in a sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) framework. The real-time and sequential nature of health data makes the SPRT an ideal candidate. The result of space-time clustering gives the statistical significance of a cluster at every location in the surveillance area and can be thought of as a ''health-index'' of the people living in this area. As a surrogate to bioterrorism data, we have experimented with two flu data sets. For both databases, we show that space-time clustering can detect a flu epidemic up to 21 to 28 days earlier than a conventional periodic regression technique. We have also tested using simulated anthrax attack data on top of a respiratory illness diagnostic category. Results show we do very well at detecting an attack as early as the second or third day after infected people start becoming severely symptomatic.