Publications

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

This work focuses on different methods to generate confidence regions for nonlinear parameter identification problems. Three methods for confidence region estimation are considered: a linear approximation method, an F-test method, and a Log-Likelihood method. Each of these methods are applied to three case studies. One case study is a problem with synthetic data, and the other two case studies identify hydraulic parameters in groundwater flow problems based on experimental well-test results. The confidence regions for each case study are analyzed and compared. Although the F-test and Log-Likelihood methods result in similar regions, there are differences between these regions and the regions generated by the linear approximation method for nonlinear problems. The differing results, capabilities, and drawbacks of all three methods are discussed.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

The goal of this project is to predict the drawdown that will be observed in specific piezometers placed in the MIU-2 borehole due to pumping at a single location in the MIU-3 borehole. These predictions will be in the form of distributions obtained through multiple forward runs of a well-test model. Specifically, two distributions will be created for each pumping location--piezometer location pair: (1) the distribution of the times to 1.0 meter of drawdown and (2) the distribution of the drawdown predicted after 12 days of pumping at a discharge rates of 25, 50, 75 and 100 l/hr. Each of the steps in the pumping rate lasts for 3 days (259,200 seconds). This report is based on results that were presented at the Tono Geoscience Center on January 27th, 2000, which was approximately one week prior to the beginning of the interference tests. Hydraulic conductivity (K), specific storage (S{sub s}) and the length of the pathway (L{sub p}) are the input parameters to the well-test analysis model. Specific values of these input parameters are uncertain. This parameter uncertainty is accounted for in the modeling by drawing individual parameter values from distributions defined for each input parameter. For the initial set of runs, the fracture system is assumed to behave as an infinite, homogeneous, isotropic aquifer. These assumptions correspond to conceptualizing the aquifer as having Theis behavior and producing radial flow to the pumping well. A second conceptual model is also used in the drawdown calculations. This conceptual model considers that the fracture system may cause groundwater to move to the pumping well in a more linear (non-radial) manner. The effects of this conceptual model on the drawdown values are examined by casting the flow dimension (F{sub d}) of the fracture pathways as an uncertain variable between 1.0 (purely linear flow) and 2.0 (completely radial flow).

The Permian Salado Formation in the Delaware Basin of New Mexico is an extensively studied evaporite deposit because it is the host formation for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, a repository for transuranic wastes. Geologic and hydrologic studies of the Salado conducted since the mid-1970's have led to the development of a conceptual model of the hydrogeology of the formation that involves far-field permeability in anhydrite layers and at least some impure halite layers. Pure halite layers and some impure halite layers may not possess an interconnected pore network adequate to provide permeability. Pore pressures are probably very close to lithostatic pressure. In the near field around an excavation, dilation, creep, and shear have created and/or enhanced permeability and decreased pore pressure. Whether flow occurs in the far field under natural gradients or only after some threshold gradient is reached is unknown. If far-field flow does occur, mean pore velocities are probably on the order of a meter per hundreds of thousands to tens of millions of years. Flow dimensions inferred from most hydraulic-test responses are subradial, which is believed to reflect channeling of flow through fracture networks, or portions of fractures, that occupy a diminishing proportion of the radially available space, or through percolation networks that are not ''saturated'' (fully interconnected). This is probably related to the directional nature of the permeability created or enhanced by excavation effects. Inferred values of permeability cannot be separated from their associated flow dimensions. Therefore, numerical models of flow and transport should include heterogeneity that is structured to provide the same flow dimensions as are observed in hydraulic tests. Modeling of the Salado Formation around the WIPP repository should also include coupling between hydraulic properties and the evolving stress field because hydraulic properties change as the stress field changes.