Publications

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The Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) code suite is assessed in terms of capability and credibility against the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) Verification and Validation Plan (presented herein) in the context of three selected challenge problems: CRUD-Induced Power Shift (CIPS), Departure from Nucleate Boiling (DNB), and Pellet-Clad Interaction (PCI). Capability refers to evidence of required functionality for capturing phenomena of interest while credibility refers to the evidence that provides confidence in the calculated results. For this assessment, each challenge problem defines a set of phenomenological requirements against which the VERA software is assessed. This approach, in turn, enables the focused assessment of only those capabilities relevant to the challenge problem. The evaluation of VERA against the challenge problem requirements represents a capability assessment. The mechanism for assessment is the Sandia-developed Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) that, for this assessment, evaluates VERA on 8 major criteria: (1) Representation and Geometric Fidelity, (2) Physics and Material Model Fidelity, (3) Software Quality Assurance and Engineering, (4) Code Verification, (5) Solution Verification, (6) Separate Effects Model Validation, (7) Integral Effects Model Validation, and (8) Uncertainty Quantification. For each attribute, a maturity score from zero to three is assigned in the context of each challenge problem. The evaluation of these eight elements constitutes the credibility assessment for VERA.

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Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has conducted an uncertainty analysis (UA) on the Fukushima Daiichi unit (1F1) accident progression with the MELCOR code. The model used was developed for a previous accident reconstruction investigation jointly sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). That study focused on reconstructing the accident progressions, as postulated by the limited plant data. This work was focused evaluation of uncertainty in core damage progression behavior and its effect on key figures-of-merit (e.g., hydrogen production, reactor damage state, fraction of intact fuel, vessel lower head failure). The primary intent of this study was to characterize the range of predicted damage states in the 1F1 reactor considering state of knowledge uncertainties associated with MELCOR modeling of core damage progression and to generate information that may be useful in informing the decommissioning activities that will be employed to defuel the damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Additionally, core damage progression variability inherent in MELCOR modeling numerics is investigated.

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This paper describes the knowledge advancements from the uncertainty analysis for the State-of- the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout accident scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. This work assessed key MELCOR and MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) modeling uncertainties in an integrated fashion to quantify the relative importance of each uncertain input on potential accident progression, radiological releases, and off-site consequences. This quantitative uncertainty analysis provides measures of the effects on consequences, of each of the selected uncertain parameters both individually and in interaction with other parameters. The results measure the model response (e.g., variance in the output) to uncertainty in the selected input. Investigation into the important uncertain parameters in turn yields insights into important phenomena for accident progression and off-site consequences. This uncertainty analysis confirmed the known importance of some parameters, such as failure rate of the Safety Relief Valve in accident progression modeling and the dry deposition velocity in off-site consequence modeling. The analysis also revealed some new insights, such as dependent effect of cesium chemical form for different accident progressions. (auth)

This paper describes the convergence of MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) probabilistic results of offsite consequences for the uncertainty analysis of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The consequence metrics evaluated are individual latent-cancer fatality (LCF) risk and individual early fatality risk. Consequence results are presented as conditional risk (i.e., assuming the accident occurs, risk per event) to individuals of the public as a result of the accident. In order to verify convergence for this uncertainty analysis, as recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards, a ‘high’ source term from the original population of Monte Carlo runs has been selected to be used for: (1) a study of the distribution of consequence results stemming solely from epistemic uncertainty in the MACCS2 parameters (i.e., separating the effect from the source term uncertainty), and (2) a comparison between Simple Random Sampling (SRS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) in order to validate the original results obtained with LHS. Three replicates (each using a different random seed) of size 1,000 each using LHS and another set of three replicates of size 1,000 using SRS are analyzed. The results show that the LCF risk results are well converged with either LHS or SRS sampling. The early fatality risk results are less well converged at radial distances beyond 2 miles, and this is expected due to the sparse data (predominance of “zero” results).

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. This presentation describes uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for the early waste package failure scenario class and the early drip shield failure scenario class obtained in the 2008 YM PA. The following topics are addressed: (i) engineered barrier system conditions, (ii) release results for the engineered barrier system, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone, (iii) dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository, and (iv) expected dose to the RMEI. The present article is part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

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For the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Extremely Low Probability of Rupture (xLPR) pilot study, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) was tasked to develop and evaluate a probabilistic framework using a commercial software package for Version 1.0 of the xLPR Code. Version 1.0 of the xLPR code is focused assessing the probability of rupture due to primary water stress corrosion cracking in dissimilar metal welds in pressurizer surge nozzles. Future versions of this framework will expand the capabilities to other cracking mechanisms, and other piping systems for both pressurized water reactors and boiling water reactors. The goal of the pilot study project is to plan the xLPR framework transition from Version 1.0 to Version 2.0; hence the initial Version 1.0 framework and code development will be used to define the requirements for Version 2.0. The software documented in this report has been developed and tested solely for this purpose. This framework and demonstration problem will be used to evaluate the commercial software's capabilities and applicability for use in creating the final version of the xLPR framework. This report details the design, system requirements, and the steps necessary to use the commercial-code based xLPR framework developed by SNL.

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) participated in a Pilot Study to examine the process and requirements to create a software system to assess the extremely low probability of pipe rupture (xLPR) in nuclear power plants. This project was tasked to develop a prototype xLPR model leveraging existing fracture mechanics models and codes coupled with a commercial software framework to determine the framework, model, and architecture requirements appropriate for building a modular-based code. The xLPR pilot study was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed developmental process and framework for a probabilistic code to address degradation mechanisms in piping system safety assessments. The pilot study includes a demonstration problem to assess the probability of rupture of DM pressurizer surge nozzle welds degraded by primary water stress-corrosion cracking (PWSCC). The pilot study was designed to define and develop the framework and model; then construct a prototype software system based on the proposed model. The second phase of the project will be a longer term program and code development effort focusing on the generic, primary piping integrity issues (xLPR code). The results and recommendations presented in this report will be used to help the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) define the requirements for the longer term program.

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We present a model to evaluate the water mass balance inside a breached waste package in Yucca Mountain (YM) repository environments. The amount of water as liquid or vapor that can accumulate inside or percolate through the package in the emplacement drift is modeled as a function of the temperature and relative humidity (RH) near the waste package, the dripping rate of water from seepage, the area of failure patches on the waste package, and the extent of waste degradation. The water activity inside the waste package is assumed to be determined by both matric and osmotic potentials in the porous waste degradation products that also includes hygroscopic salts. We implemented the model and conducted a set of Monte Carlo simulations to gain insight into the variability and uncertainty associated with model predictions. The model shows that water vapor diffusion can be as important as the advective seepage flow. In addition, chemical reactions during waste degradation can consume a significant fraction of water accumulated in the waste package.

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A total system performance assessment (TSPA) model has been developed to analyze the ability of the natural and engineered barriers of the Yucca Mountain repository to isolate nuclear waste over the period following repository closure. The principal features of the engineered barrier system are emplacement tunnels (or "drifts") containing a two-layer waste package (WP) for waste containment and a titanium drip shield to protect the WP from seeping water and falling rock. The 25-mm-thick outer shell of the WP is composed of Alloy 22, a highly corrosion-resistant nickel-based alloy. There are five nominal degradation modes of the Alloy 22: general corrosion, microbially influenced corrosion, stress corrosion cracking, early failure due to manufacturing defects, and localized corrosion (LC). This paper specifically examines the incorporation of the Alloy 22 LC model into the Yucca Mountain TSPA model, particularly the abstraction and modeling methodology, as well as issues dealing with scaling, spatial variability, uncertainty, and coupling to other submodels that are part of the total system model, such as the submodel for seepage water chemistry.

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Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia), a U.S. Department of Energy National Laboratory, has over 30 years experience in the assessment of radioactive waste disposal and at the time of this publication is providing assistance internationally in a number of areas relevant to the safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal systems. In cooperation with the Republic of Taiwan's Institute of Nuclear Engineering and Research (INER), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has developed software that provides an interface between a deterministic far field mass transport code and GoldSim (a commercial software used to conduct Monte Carlo analyses). The SNL developed software enables INER to perform probabilistic simulations for safety analysis and performance assessment of geologic disposal of commercial spent nuclear fuel. The following report details the software design, the steps necessary to use the software, and presents an example application of the paradigm of coupling deterministic codes to a contemporary probabilistic software application.

Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia), a U.S. Department of Energy National Laboratory, has over 30 years experience in the assessment of radioactive waste disposal, and at the time of this publication is providing assistance internationally in a number of areas relevant to the safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal systems. In cooperation with the Republic of Taiwan’s Institute of Nuclear Engineering and Research (INER), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has developed software that provides an interface between a deterministic mass transport code and GoldSim™ (a commercial software used to conduct Monte Carlo analyses). The SNL-developed software enables INER to perform probabilistic simulations for safety analysis and performance assessment of geologic disposal of commercial spent nuclear fuel. This report details the software design, the steps necessary to use the software, and presents an example application of the paradigm of coupling deterministic codes to a contemporary probabilistic software application.

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Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia), a U.S. Department of Energy National Laboratory, has over 30 years experience in the assessment of radioactive waste disposal and at the time of this publication is providing assistance internationally in a number of areas relevant to the safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal systems. In countries with small radioactive waste programs, international technology transfer program efforts are often hampered by small budgets, schedule constraints, and a lack of experienced personnel. In an effort to surmount these difficulties, Sandia has developed a system that utilizes a combination of commercially available software codes and existing legacy codes for probabilistic safety assessment modeling that facilitates the technology transfer and maximizes limited available funding. Numerous codes developed and endorsed by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and codes developed and maintained by United States Department of Energy are generally available to foreign countries after addressing import/export control and copyright requirements. From a programmatic view, it is easier to utilize existing codes than to develop new codes. From an economic perspective, it is not possible for most countries with small radioactive waste disposal programs to maintain complex software, which meets the rigors of both domestic regulatory requirements and international peer review. Therefore, revitalization of deterministic legacy codes, as well as an adaptation of contemporary deterministic codes, provides a credible and solid computational platform for constructing probabilistic safety assessment models. This document is a reference users guide for the GoldSim/BLT-MS integrated modeling software package developed as part of a cooperative technology transfer project between Sandia National Laboratories and the Institute of Nuclear Energy Research (INER) in Taiwan for the preliminary assessment of several candidate low-level waste repository sites. Breach, Leach, and Transport-Multiple Species (BLT-MS) is a U.S. NRC sponsored code which simulates release and transport of contaminants from a subsurface low-level waste disposal facility. GoldSim is commercially available probabilistic software package that has radionuclide transport capabilities. The following report guides a user through the steps necessary to use the integrated model and presents a successful application of the paradigm of renewing legacy codes for contemporary application.

Sandia National Laboratories and the Institute of Nuclear Energy Research, Taiwan have collaborated in a technology transfer program related to low-level radioactive waste (LLW) disposal in Taiwan. Phase I of this program included regulatory analysis of LLW final disposal, development of LLW disposal performance assessment capabilities, and preliminary performance assessments of two potential disposal sites. Performance objectives were based on regulations in Taiwan and comparisons to those in the United States. Probabilistic performance assessment models were constructed based on limited site data using software including GoldSim, BLT-MS, FEHM, and HELP. These software codes provided the probabilistic framework, container degradation, waste-form leaching, groundwater flow, radionuclide transport, and cover infiltration simulation capabilities in the performance assessment. Preliminary performance assessment analyses were conducted for a near-surface disposal system and a mined cavern disposal system at two representative sites in Taiwan. Results of example calculations indicate peak simulated concentrations to a receptor within a few hundred years of LLW disposal, primarily from highly soluble, non-sorbing radionuclides.

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Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and Taiwan's Institute for Nuclear Energy Research (INER) have teamed together to evaluate several candidate sites for Low-Level Radioactive Waste (LLW) disposal in Taiwan. Taiwan currently has three nuclear power plants, with another under construction. Taiwan also has a research reactor, as well as medical and industrial wastes to contend with. Eventually the reactors will be decomissioned. Operational and decommissioning wastes will need to be disposed in a licensed disposal facility starting in 2014. Taiwan has adopted regulations similar to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) low-level radioactive waste rules (10 CFR 61) to govern the disposal of LLW. Taiwan has proposed several potential sites for the final disposal of LLW that is now in temporary storage on Lanyu Island and on-site at operating nuclear power plants, and for waste generated in the future through 2045. The planned final disposal facility will have a capacity of approximately 966,000 55-gallon drums. Taiwan is in the process of evaluating the best candidate site to pursue for licensing. Among these proposed sites there are basically two disposal concepts: shallow land burial and cavern disposal. A representative potential site for shallow land burial is located on a small island in the Taiwan Strait with basalt bedrock and interbedded sedimentary rocks. An engineered cover system would be constructed to limit infiltration for shallow land burial. A representative potential site for cavern disposal is located along the southeastern coast of Taiwan in a tunnel system that would be about 500 to 800 m below the surface. Bedrock at this site consists of argillite and meta-sedimentary rocks. Performance assessment analyses will be performed to evaluate future performance of the facility and the potential dose/risk to exposed populations. Preliminary performance assessment analyses will be used in the site-selection process and to aid in design of the disposal system. Final performance assessment analyses will be used in the regulatory process of licensing a site. The SNL/INER team has developed a performance assessment methodology that is used to simulate processes associated with the potential release of radionuclides to evaluate these sites. The following software codes are utilized in the performance assessment methodology: GoldSim (to implement a probabilistic analysis that will explicitly address uncertainties); the NRC's Breach, Leach, and Transport - Multiple Species (BLT-MS) code (to simulate waste-container degradation, waste-form leaching, and transport through the host rock); the Finite Element Heat and Mass Transfer code (FEHM) (to simulate groundwater flow and estimate flow velocities); the Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill performance Model (HELP) code (to evaluate infiltration through the disposal cover); the AMBER code (to evaluate human health exposures); and the NRC's Disposal Unit Source Term -- Multiple Species (DUST-MS) code (to screen applicable radionuclides). Preliminary results of the evaluations of the two disposal concept sites are presented.

A radioactive sealed source is any radioactive material that is encased in a capsule designed to prevent leakage or escape of the radioactive material. Radioactive sealed sources are used for a wide variety of applications at hospitals, in manufacturing and research. Typical uses are in portable gauges to measure soil compaction and moisture or to determine physical properties of rocks units in boreholes (well logging). Hospitals and clinics use radioactive sealed sources for teletherapy and brachytherapy. Oil exploration and medicine are the largest users. Accidental mismanagement of radioactive sealed sources each year results in a large number of people receiving very high or even fatal does of ionizing radiation. Deliberate mismanagement is a growing international concern. Sealed sources must be managed and disposed effectively in order to protect human health and the environment. Effective national safety and management infrastructures are prerequisites for efficient and safe transportation, treatment, storage, and disposal. The Integrated Management Program for Radioactive Sealed Sources in Egypt (IMPRSS) is a cooperative development agreement between the Egyptian Atomic Energy Authority (EAEA), Egyptian Ministry of Health (MOH), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the University of New Mexico (UNM), and Agriculture Cooperative Development International (ACDI/VOCA). The EAEA, teaming with SNL, is conducting a Preliminary Safety Assessment (PSA) of an intermediate-depth borehole disposal in thick arid alluvium in Egypt based on experience with the U.S. Greater Confinement Disposal (GCD). Goldsim has been selected for the preliminary disposal system assessment for the Egyptian GCD Study. The results of the PSA will then be used to decide if Egypt desires to implement such a disposal system.