Publications

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This paper presents an investigation into sampling strategies for reducing the computational expense of creating error models for steady hypersonic flow surrogate models. The error model describes the quantity of interest error between a reduced-order model prediction and a full-order model solution. The sampling strategies are separated into three categories: distinct training sets, single training set, and augmented single training set for the reduced-order model and the error model. Using a distinct training set, three sampling strategies are investigated: latin hypercube sampling, latin hypercube sampling with a maximin criterion, and a D-Optimal design. It was found that using a D-Optimal design was the most effective at producing an accurate error model with the fewest number of training points. When using a single training set, the leave-one-out cross validation approach was used on the D-Optimal design training set. This produced an error model with an R2 value of greater than 0.8, but it had some outliers due to high nonlinearities in the space. Augmenting the training points of the error model helped improve its accuracy. Using a D-Optimal design with distinct training sets cut the computational cost of creating the error model by 15% and using the LOOCV approach with the D-Optimal design cut the cost by 64%.

High-fidelity hypersonic aerodynamic simulations require extensive computational resources, hindering their usage in hypersonic vehicle design and uncertainty quantification. Projectionbased reduced-order models (ROMs) are a computationally cheaper alternative to full-order simulations that can provide major speedup with marginal loss of accuracy when solving manyquery problems such as design optimization and uncertainty propagation. However, ROMs can present robustness and convergence issues, especially when trained over large ranges of input parameters and/or with few training samples. This paper presents the application of several different residual minimization-based ROMs to hypersonic flows around flight vehicles using less training data than in previous work. The ROM demonstrations are accompanied by a comparison to fully data-driven approaches including kriging and radial basis function interpolation. Results are presented for three test cases including one three-dimensional flight vehicle. We show that registration-based ROMs trained on grid-tailored solutions can compute quantities of interest more accurately than data driven approaches for a given sparse training set. We also find that the classic ℓ2 state error metric is not particularly useful when comparing different model reduction techniques on sparse training data sets.

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This work aims to advance computational methods for projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs) of linear time-invariant (LTI) dynamical systems. For such systems, current practice relies on ROM formulations expressing the state as a rank-1 tensor (i.e., a vector), leading to computational kernels that are memory bandwidth bound and, therefore, ill-suited for scalable performance on modern architectures. This weakness can be particularly limiting when tackling many-query studies, where one needs to run a large number of simulations. This work introduces a reformulation, called rank-2 Galerkin, of the Galerkin ROM for LTI dynamical systems which converts the nature of the ROM problem from memory bandwidth to compute bound. We present the details of the formulation and its implementation, and demonstrate its utility through numerical experiments using, as a test case, the simulation of elastic seismic shear waves in an axisymmetric domain. We quantify and analyze performance and scaling results for varying numbers of threads and problem sizes. Finally, we present an end-to-end demonstration of using the rank-2 Galerkin ROM for a Monte Carlo sampling study. We show that the rank-2 Galerkin ROM is one order of magnitude more efficient than the rank-1 Galerkin ROM (the current practice) and about 970 times more efficient than the full-order model, while maintaining accuracy in both the mean and statistics of the field.

We present a simple, near-real-time Bayesian method to infer and forecast a multiwave outbreak, and demonstrate it on the COVID-19 pandemic. The approach uses timely epidemiological data that has been widely available for COVID-19. It provides short-term forecasts of the outbreak’s evolution, which can then be used for medical resource planning. The method postulates one- and multiwave infection models, which are convolved with the incubation-period distribution to yield competing disease models. The disease models’ parameters are estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling and information-theoretic criteria are used to select between them for use in forecasting. The method is demonstrated on two- and three-wave COVID-19 outbreaks in California, New Mexico and Florida, as observed during Summer-Winter 2020. We find that the method is robust to noise, provides useful forecasts (along with uncertainty bounds) and that it reliably detected when the initial single-wave COVID-19 outbreaks transformed into successive surges as containment efforts in these states failed by the end of Spring 2020.

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Thermal protection system designers rely heavily on computational simulation tools for design optimization and uncertainty quantification. Because high-fidelity analysis tools are computationally expensive, analysts primarily use low-fidelity or surrogate models instead. In this work, we explore an alternative approach wherein projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs) are used to approximate the computationally infeasible high-fidelity model. ROMs are preferable to alternative approximation approaches for high-consequence applications due to the presence of rigorous error bounds. This work presents the first application of ROMs to ablation systems. In particular, we present results for Galerkin and least-squares Petrov-Galerkin ROMs of 1D and 2D ablation system models.

High-speed aerospace engineering applications rely heavily on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for design and analysis. This reliance on CFD models necessitates performing accurate and reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the CFD models, which can be very expensive for hypersonic flows. Additionally, UQ approaches are many-query problems requiring many runs with a wide range of input parameters. One way to enable computationally expensive models to be used in such many-query problems is to employ projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs) in lieu of the (high-fidelity) full-order model (FOM). In particular, the least-squares Petrov–Galerkin (LSPG) ROM (equipped with hyper-reduction) has demonstrated the ability to significantly reduce simulation costs while retaining high levels of accuracy on a range of problems, including subsonic CFD applications. This allows LSPG ROM simulations to replace the FOM simulations in UQ studies, making UQ tractable even for large-scale CFD models. This work presents the first application of LSPG to a hypersonic CFD application, the Hypersonic International Flight Research Experimentation 1 (HIFiRE-1) in a three-dimensional, turbulent Mach 7.1 flow. This paper shows the ability of the ROM to significantly reduce computational costs while maintaining high levels of accuracy in computed quantities of interest.

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High-speed aerospace engineering applications rely heavily on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for design and analysis due to the expense and difficulty of flight tests and experiments. This reliance on CFD models necessitates performing accurate and reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the CFD models. However, it is very computationally expensive to run CFD for hypersonic flows due to the fine grid resolution required to capture the strong shocks and large gradients that are typically present. Furthermore, UQ approaches are “many-query” problems requiring many runs with a wide range of input parameters. One way to enable computationally expensive models to be used in such many-query problems is to employ projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs) in lieu of the (high-fidelity) full-order model. In particular, the least-squares Petrov–Galerkin (LSPG) ROM (equipped with hyper-reduction) has demonstrated the ability to significantly reduce simulation costs while retaining high levels of accuracy on a range of problems including subsonic CFD applications. This allows computationally inexpensive LSPG ROM simulations to replace the full-order model simulations in UQ studies, which makes this many-query task tractable, even for large-scale CFD models. This work presents the first application of LSPG to a hypersonic CFD application. In particular, we present results for LSPG ROMs of the HIFiRE-1 in a three-dimensional, turbulent Mach 7.1 flow, showcasing the ability of the ROM to significantly reduce computational costs while maintaining high levels of accuracy in computed quantities of interest.

Truly predictive numerical simulations can only be obtained by performing Uncertainty Quantification. However, many realistic engineering applications require extremely complex and computationally expensive high-fidelity numerical simulations for their accurate performance characterization. Very often the combination of complex physical models and extreme operative conditions can easily lead to hundreds of uncertain parameters that need to be propagated through high-fidelity codes. Under these circumstances, a single fidelity uncertainty quantification approach, i.e. a workflow that only uses high-fidelity simulations, is unfeasible due to its prohibitive overall computational cost. To overcome this difficulty, in recent years multifidelity strategies emerged and gained popularity. Their core idea is to combine simulations with varying levels of fidelity/accuracy in order to obtain estimators or surrogates that can yield the same accuracy of their single fidelity counterparts at a much lower computational cost. This goal is usually accomplished by defining a priori a sequence of discretization levels or physical modeling assumptions that can be used to decrease the complexity of a numerical model realization and thus its computational cost. Less attention has been dedicated to low-fidelity models that can be built directly from a small number of available high-fidelity simulations. In this work we focus our attention on reduced order models (ROMs). Our main goal in this work is to investigate the combination of multifidelity uncertainty quantification and ROMs in order to evaluate the possibility to obtain an efficient framework for propagating uncertainties through expensive numerical codes. We focus our attention on sampling-based multifidelity approaches, like the multifidelity control variate, and we consider several scenarios for a numerical test problem, namely the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation, for which the efficiency of the multifidelity-ROM estimator is compared to the standard (single-fidelity) Monte Carlo approach.

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High-speed aerospace engineering applications rely heavily on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for design and analysis due to the expense and difficulty of flight tests and experiments. This reliance on CFD models necessitates performing accurate and reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the CFD models. However, it is very computationally expensive to run CFD for hypersonic flows due to the fine grid resolution required to capture the strong shocks and large gradients that are typically present. Additionally, UQ approaches are “many-query” problems requiring many runs with a wide range of input parameters. One way to enable computationally expensive models to be used in such many-query problems is to employ projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs) in lieu of the (high-fidelity) full-order model. In particular, the least-squares Petrov–Galerkin (LSPG) ROM (equipped with hyper-reduction) has demonstrated the ability to significantly reduce simulation costs while retaining high levels of accuracy on a range of problems including subsonic CFD applications [1, 2]. This allows computationally inexpensive LSPG ROM simulations to replace the full-order model simulations in UQ studies, which makes this many-query task tractable, even for large-scale CFD models. This work presents the first application of LSPG to a hypersonic CFD application. In particular, we present results for LSPG ROMs of the HIFiRE-1 in a three-dimensional, turbulent Mach 7.1 flow, showcasing the ability of the ROM to significantly reduce computational costs while maintaining high levels of accuracy in computed quantities of interest.

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