Publications

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Recent terrorist attacks in the United States have increased concerns about potential national security consequences from energy supply disruptions. The purpose of this Laboratory Directed Research & Development (LDRD) is to develop a high-level dynamic simulation model that would allow policy makers to explore the national security consequences of major US. energy supply disruptions, and to do so in a way that would integrate energy, economic and environmental components. The model allows exploration of potential combinations of demand-driven energy supplies that meet chosen policy objectives, including: Mitigating economic losses, measured in national economic output and employment levels, due to terrorist activity or forced outages of the type seen in California; Control of greenhouse gas levels and growth rates; and Moderating US. energy import requirements. This work has built upon the Sandia US. Energy and greenhouse Gas Model (USEGM) by integrating a macroeconomic input-output framework into the model, adding the capability to assess the potential economic impact of energy supply disruptions and the associated national security issues. The economic impacts of disruptions are measured in terms of lost US. output (e.g., GDP, sectoral output) and lost employment, and are assessed either at a broad sectoral level (3 sectors) or at a disaggregated level (52 sectors). In this version of the model, physical energy disruptions result in quantitative energy shortfalls, and energy prices are not permitted to rise to clear the markets.

Surface and groundwater resources do not recognize political boundaries. Where nature and boundary cross, tension over shared water resources can erupt. Such tension is exacerbated in regions where demand approaches or exceeds sustainable supplies of water. Establishing equitable management strategies can help prevent and resolve conflict over shared water resources. This paper describes a methodology for addressing transboundary water issues predicated on the integration of monitoring and modeling within a framework of cooperation. Cooperative monitoring begins with agreement by international scientists and/or policy makers on transboundary monitoring goals and strategies; it leads to the process of obtaining and sharing agreed-upon information among parties with the purpose of providing verifiable and secure data. Cooperative modeling is the process by which the parties jointly interpret the data, forecast future events and trends, and quantify cause and effect relationships. Together, cooperative monitoring and modeling allow for the development and assessment of alternative management and remediation strategies that could form the basis of regional watershed agreements or treaties. An example of how this multifaceted approach might be used to manage a shared water resource is presented for the Kura River basin in the Caucasus.