Optimizing Machine Learning Decisions with Prediction Uncertainty
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This report contains the written footprint of a Sandia-hosted workshop held in Albuquerque, New Mexico, June 22-23, 2016 on “Complex Systems Models and Their Applications: Towards a New Science of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification,” as well as of pre-work that fed into the workshop. The workshop’s intent was to explore and begin articulating research opportunities at the intersection between two important Sandia communities: the complex systems (CS) modeling community, and the verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) community The overarching research opportunity (and challenge) that we ultimately hope to address is: how can we quantify the credibility of knowledge gained from complex systems models, knowledge that is often incomplete and interim, but will nonetheless be used, sometimes in real-time, by decision makers?
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In 2012, Hurricane Sandy devastated much of the U.S. northeast coastal areas. Among those hardest hit was the small community of Hoboken, New Jersey, located on the banks of the Hudson River across from Manhattan. This report describes a city-wide electrical infrastructure design that uses microgrids and other infrastructure to ensure the city retains functionality should such an event occur in the future. The designs ensure that up to 55 critical buildings will retain power during blackout or flooded conditions and include analysis for microgrid architectures, performance parameters, system control, renewable energy integration, and financial opportunities (while grid connected). The results presented here are not binding and are subject to change based on input from the Hoboken stakeholders, the integrator selected to manage and implement the microgrid, or other subject matter experts during the detailed (final) phase of the design effort.
ECS Transactions
Emerging semiconductor switches based on the wide-bandgap semiconductor GaN have the potential to significantly improve the efficiency of portable power applications such as transportable energy storage. Such applications are likely to become more widespread as renewables such as wind and solar continue to come on-line. However, the long-term reliability of GaN-based power devices is relatively unexplored. In this paper, we describe joint work between Sandia National Laboratories and MIT on highvoltage AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors. It is observed that the nature of current collapse is a strong function of bias conditions as well as device design, where factors such as Al composition in the barrier layer and surface passivation play a large role. Thermal and optical recovery experiments are performed to ascertain the nature of charge trapping in the device. Additionally, Kelvin-force microscopy measurements are used to evaluate the surface potential within the device. © The Electrochemical Society.
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Materials Research Society Symposium Proceedings
Charge trapping and slow (10 s to > 1000 s) detrapping in AlGaN/GaN HEMTs designed for high breakdown voltage (> 1500 V) are studied to identify the impact of Al molefraction and passivation on trapping. Two different trapping components, TG1 (E a = 0.62 eV) and TG2 (with negligible temperature dependence) in AlGaN dominate under gale bias stress in the off-state. Al 0.15Ga 0.85N shows much more vulnerability to trapping under gate stress in the absence of passivation than does AlGaN with a higher Al mole fraction. Under large drain bias, trapping is dominated by a much deeper trap TD. Detrapping under illumination by monochromatic light shows TD to have E a ≈ 1.65 eV in Al 0.26Ga 0.74N and E a ≈ 1.85 eV in Al 0.15Ga 0.85N. This is consistent with a transition from a deep state (E c - 2.0 eV) in the AlGaN barrier to the 2DEG. © 2012 Materials Research Society.
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Materials Science Forum
Carrier generation characteristics in n-type substrate SiC MOS capacitors induced by sub-bandgap energy light are reported. The generation rate is high enough to create an inversion layer in ∼20 minutes with monochromatic light (front side illumination) of energy 2.1 eV (intensity ∼5×10 16 cm-2s-1) in 4H-SiC for electric fields smaller than 1 MV/cm. Generation and recovery results strongly indicate involvement of a metastable defect whose efficiency as a generation center increases under hole-rich and decreases under electron-rich conditions. The generation dependence on bias history and light energy shows the defect to have properties consistent with the metastable silicon vacancy / carbon vacancy-antisite complex (VSi/Vc-CSi). © (2012) Trans Tech Publications.
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Applied Physics Letters
Carrier generation characteristics in n-type substrate silicon carbide (SiC) metal oxide semiconductor capacitors induced by sub-bandgap energy light are reported. The generation rate is high enough to create an inversion layer in approximately 20 min with monochromatic front side illumination of energy 2.1 eV in 4H-SiC for electric fields less than 1 MV/cm. Generation and recovery results strongly indicate involvement of a metastable defect whose efficiency as a generation center increases under hole-rich and decreases under electron-rich conditions. The generation dependence on bias history and light energy shows the defect to have properties consistent with the metastable silicon vacancy/carbon vacancy-antisite complex (VSi/Vc-C Si). © 2011 American Institute of Physics.
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Applied Physics Letters
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Applied Physics Letters
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ECS Transactions
Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS) use advanced power electronics to minimize reactive power loss on the grid. Power devices used in FACTS systems must be capable of switching several thousand amps at voltages of 1-10 kV. Traditionally, these systems have relied on silicon thyristors, but recently have also began to incorporate insulated gate bipolar transistors. FACTS systems present an opportunity for emerging SiC and GaN power transistors, which offer major efficiency gains. However, for these advanced materials to be considered for use in high consequence grid level systems like FACTS controllers, excellent reliability must be demonstrated. ©The Electrochemical Society.
Power conversion systems for energy storage and other distributed energy resource applications are among the drivers of the important role that power electronics plays in providing reliable electricity. Wide band gap semiconductors such as silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) will help increase the performance and efficiency of power electronic equipment while condition monitoring (CM) and prognostics and health management (PHM) will increase the operational availability of the equipment and thereby make it more cost effective. Voltage and/or temperature stress testing were performed on a number of SiC devices in order to accelerate failure modes and to identify measureable shifts in electrical characteristics which may provide early indication of those failures. Those shifts can be interpreted and modeled to provide prognostic signatures for use in CM and/or PHM. Such experiments will also lead to a deeper understanding of basic device physics and the degradation mechanisms behind failure.
The project's goals are: (1) use experiments and modeling to investigate and characterize stress-related failure modes of post-silicon power electronic (PE) devices such as silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) switches; and (2) seek opportunities for condition monitoring (CM) and prognostics and health management (PHM) to further enhance the reliability of power electronics devices and equipment. CM - detect anomalies and diagnose problems that require maintenance. PHM - track damage growth, predict time to failure, and manage subsequent maintenance and operations in such a way to optimize overall system utility against cost. The benefits of CM/PHM are: (1) operate power conversion systems in ways that will preclude predicted failures; (2) reduce unscheduled downtime and thereby reduce costs; and (3) pioneering reliability in SiC and GaN.
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This report provides the DOE and industry with a general process for analyzing power electronics reliability. The analysis can help with understanding the main causes of failures, downtime, and cost and how to reduce them. One approach is to collect field maintenance data and use it directly to calculate reliability metrics related to each cause. Another approach is to model the functional structure of the equipment using a fault tree to derive system reliability from component reliability. Analysis of a fictitious device demonstrates the latter process. Optimization can use the resulting baseline model to decide how to improve reliability and/or lower costs. It is recommended that both electric utilities and equipment manufacturers make provisions to collect and share data in order to lay the groundwork for improving reliability into the future. Reliability analysis helps guide reliability improvements in hardware and software technology including condition monitoring and prognostics and health management.
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