Optimizing Machine Learning Decisions with Prediction Uncertainty
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This report contains the written footprint of a Sandia-hosted workshop held in Albuquerque, New Mexico, June 22-23, 2016 on “Complex Systems Models and Their Applications: Towards a New Science of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification,” as well as of pre-work that fed into the workshop. The workshop’s intent was to explore and begin articulating research opportunities at the intersection between two important Sandia communities: the complex systems (CS) modeling community, and the verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) community The overarching research opportunity (and challenge) that we ultimately hope to address is: how can we quantify the credibility of knowledge gained from complex systems models, knowledge that is often incomplete and interim, but will nonetheless be used, sometimes in real-time, by decision makers?
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In 2012, Hurricane Sandy devastated much of the U.S. northeast coastal areas. Among those hardest hit was the small community of Hoboken, New Jersey, located on the banks of the Hudson River across from Manhattan. This report describes a city-wide electrical infrastructure design that uses microgrids and other infrastructure to ensure the city retains functionality should such an event occur in the future. The designs ensure that up to 55 critical buildings will retain power during blackout or flooded conditions and include analysis for microgrid architectures, performance parameters, system control, renewable energy integration, and financial opportunities (while grid connected). The results presented here are not binding and are subject to change based on input from the Hoboken stakeholders, the integrator selected to manage and implement the microgrid, or other subject matter experts during the detailed (final) phase of the design effort.
ECS Transactions
Emerging semiconductor switches based on the wide-bandgap semiconductor GaN have the potential to significantly improve the efficiency of portable power applications such as transportable energy storage. Such applications are likely to become more widespread as renewables such as wind and solar continue to come on-line. However, the long-term reliability of GaN-based power devices is relatively unexplored. In this paper, we describe joint work between Sandia National Laboratories and MIT on highvoltage AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors. It is observed that the nature of current collapse is a strong function of bias conditions as well as device design, where factors such as Al composition in the barrier layer and surface passivation play a large role. Thermal and optical recovery experiments are performed to ascertain the nature of charge trapping in the device. Additionally, Kelvin-force microscopy measurements are used to evaluate the surface potential within the device. © The Electrochemical Society.
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Materials Research Society Symposium Proceedings
Charge trapping and slow (10 s to > 1000 s) detrapping in AlGaN/GaN HEMTs designed for high breakdown voltage (> 1500 V) are studied to identify the impact of Al molefraction and passivation on trapping. Two different trapping components, TG1 (E a = 0.62 eV) and TG2 (with negligible temperature dependence) in AlGaN dominate under gale bias stress in the off-state. Al 0.15Ga 0.85N shows much more vulnerability to trapping under gate stress in the absence of passivation than does AlGaN with a higher Al mole fraction. Under large drain bias, trapping is dominated by a much deeper trap TD. Detrapping under illumination by monochromatic light shows TD to have E a ≈ 1.65 eV in Al 0.26Ga 0.74N and E a ≈ 1.85 eV in Al 0.15Ga 0.85N. This is consistent with a transition from a deep state (E c - 2.0 eV) in the AlGaN barrier to the 2DEG. © 2012 Materials Research Society.
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Materials Science Forum
Carrier generation characteristics in n-type substrate SiC MOS capacitors induced by sub-bandgap energy light are reported. The generation rate is high enough to create an inversion layer in ∼20 minutes with monochromatic light (front side illumination) of energy 2.1 eV (intensity ∼5×10 16 cm-2s-1) in 4H-SiC for electric fields smaller than 1 MV/cm. Generation and recovery results strongly indicate involvement of a metastable defect whose efficiency as a generation center increases under hole-rich and decreases under electron-rich conditions. The generation dependence on bias history and light energy shows the defect to have properties consistent with the metastable silicon vacancy / carbon vacancy-antisite complex (VSi/Vc-CSi). © (2012) Trans Tech Publications.
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Applied Physics Letters
Carrier generation characteristics in n-type substrate silicon carbide (SiC) metal oxide semiconductor capacitors induced by sub-bandgap energy light are reported. The generation rate is high enough to create an inversion layer in approximately 20 min with monochromatic front side illumination of energy 2.1 eV in 4H-SiC for electric fields less than 1 MV/cm. Generation and recovery results strongly indicate involvement of a metastable defect whose efficiency as a generation center increases under hole-rich and decreases under electron-rich conditions. The generation dependence on bias history and light energy shows the defect to have properties consistent with the metastable silicon vacancy/carbon vacancy-antisite complex (VSi/Vc-C Si). © 2011 American Institute of Physics.