Publications

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Suppose Tom is working to develop a rocket. Susan is very interested in knowing what Tom is doing but cannot directly observe his testing of the rocket propulsion system. Specifically, she would like to know if Tom has the ability to launch a heavy rocket or a light rocket. She thinks she can learn about Tom’s capability by learning about what type of rocket engine Tom is using, and the number of rockets in the design. She is considering buying a special sensor that can observe flashes from the rocket firing up during the tests and indicate if the rockets fire in a sufficiently narrow window of time such that they would successfully lift a heavy rocket.

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The need for metrics for planning and response measures was identified as key gap to be addressed in the National Hurricane Program's (NHP) Technology Modernization effort. This document proposes a framework for defining a set of metrics for planning and response that will be implemented in the NHP products of hurricane evacuation studies (HES) and post-storm assessments (PSA). To determine the feasibility of this framework, a survey of current HES and PSAs was carried out followed by and then used to determine if the proposed metrics are currently captured. While there is a wide variety in data availability and detail, the implementation of these metrics is not only feasible but presents an opportunity to improve on current practices. The final implementation of this framework shall require the ongoing feedback from local, state, tribal, and federal stakeholders.

The Hurricane Evacuation Study (HES) Tool prototype is a key component of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Hurricane Program (NHP) Technology Modernization (TM) effort. To ensure the HES Tool captured the necessary capabilities and functionality, engagement with potential end-users and key stakeholders was considered a priority throughout development. Pilot studies with representatives from North Carolina and New York City were done to validate the HES Tool process with their current HES undertaking. These pilot studies let the development of additional capabilities and feedback on the needs of diverse regions. A usability study was carried out with key stakeholders identified by NHP leadership through individualized sessions with identified personnel. The results showed the value of the HES Tool compared to the current process as well as key issues that must be addressed to ensure a final transition.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) National Hurricane Program (NHP), helps protect communities and residents from hurricane hazards by providing evacuation preparedness technical assistance to State, local, and tribal governments. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) and FEMA are co- sponsoring an effort to modernize technology components of the NHP, including the Hurricane Evacuation Study (HES), which addresses planning and impact assessments for coastal regions. The current HES process is manual, financially costly, and can take up to several years to complete. To streamline this process, the NHP Technology Modernization Program is developing an automated HES Tool that will reduce the cost and time requirements of the HES process by up to 70%. This document outlines the requirements of the current HES process and explains how the HES Tool can be used to fulfill those requirements. It also contains a detailed list of the modeling and simulation capabilities available within the HES tool.

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