In 2010, nuclear weapon effects experts at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) were asked to provide a quick reference document containing estimated prompt nuclear effects. This report is an update to the 2010 document that includes updated model assumptions. This report addresses only the prompt effects associated with a nuclear detonation (e.g., blast, thermal fluence, and prompt ionizing radiation). The potential medium- and longer-term health effects associated with nuclear fallout are not considered in this report because, in part, of the impracticality of making generic estimates given the high dependency of fallout predictions on the local meteorological conditions at the time of the event. The results included in this report also do not consider the urban environment (e.g., shielding by or collapse of structures) which may affect the extent of prompt effects. It is important to note that any operational recommendations made using the estimates in this report are limited by the generic assumptions considered in the analysis and should not replace analyses made for a specific scenario/device. Furthermore, nuclear effects experts (John Hogan, SNL, and Byron Ristvet, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA)) have indicated that the accuracy of effects predictions below 0.5 kilotons (kT) or 500 tons nuclear yield have greater uncertainty because of the limited data available for the prompt effects in this regime. The Specialized Hazard Assessment Response Capability (SHARC) effects prediction tool was used for these analyses. Specifically, the NUKE model within SHARC 2021 Version 10.2 was used. NUKE models only the prompt effects following a nuclear detonation. The algorithms for predicting range-to-output data contained within the NUKE model are primarily based on nuclear test effects data. Probits have been derived from nuclear test data and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) protective action guides. Probits relate the probability of a hazard (e.g., fatality or injury) caused by a given insult (e.g., overpressure, thermal fluence, dose level). Several probits have been built into SHARC to determine the fatality and injury associated with a given level of insult. Some of these probits differ with varying yield. Such probits were used to develop the tables and plots in this report.
This multinational, multi-phase spent fuel sabotage test program is quantifying the aerosol particles produced when the products of a high energy density device (HEDD) interact with and explosively particulate test rodlets that contain pellets of either surrogate materials or actual spent fuel. This program provides source-term data that are relevant to plausible sabotage scenarios in relation to spent fuel transport and storage casks and associated risk assessments. We present details and significant results obtained from this program from 2001 through 2007. Measured aerosol results include: respirable fractions produced; amounts, nuclide content, and produced particle size distributions and morphology; measurements of volatile fission product species enhanced sorption--enrichment factors onto respirable particles; and, status on determination of the spent fuel ratio, SFR, needed for scaling studies. Emphasis is provided on recent Phase 3 tests using depleted uranium oxide pellets plus non-radioactive fission product dopants in surrogate spent fuel test rodlets, plus the latest surrogate cerium oxide results and aerosol laboratory supporting calibration work. The DUO{sub 2}, CeO{sub 2}, plus fission product dopant aerosol particle results are compared with available historical data. We also provide a status review on continuing preparations for the final Phase 4 in this program, tests using individual short rodlets containing actual spent fuel from U.S. PWR reactors, with both high- and lower-burnup fuel. The source-term data, aerosol results, and program design have been tailored to support and guide follow-on computer modeling of aerosol dispersal hazards and radiological consequence assessments. This spent fuel sabotage, aerosol test program was performed primarily at Sandia National Laboratories, with support provided by both the U.S. Department of Energy and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This program has significant input from, and is cooperatively supported and coordinated by both the U.S. and international program participants in Germany, France, and others, as part of the International Working Group for Sabotage Concerns of Transport and Storage Casks (WGSTSC).