Publications

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Many individuals' mobility can be characterized by strong patterns of regular movements and is influenced by social relationships. Social networks are also often organized into overlapping communities which are associated in time or space. We develop a model that can generate the structure of a social network and attribute purpose to individuals' movements, based solely on records of individuals' locations over time. This model distinguishes the attributed purpose of check-ins based on temporal and spatial patterns in check-in data. Because a location-based social network dataset with authoritative ground-truth to test our entire model does not exist, we generate large scale datasets containing social networks and individual check-in data to test our model. We find that our model reliably assigns community purpose to social check-in data, and is robust over a variety of different situations.

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In July 2012, protestors cut through security fences and gained access to the Y-12 National Security Complex. This was believed to be a highly reliable, multi-layered security system. This report documents the results of a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project that created a consistent, robust mathematical framework using complex systems analysis algorithms and techniques to better understand the emergent behavior, vulnerabilities and resiliency of multi-layered security systems subject to budget constraints and competing security priorities. Because there are several dimensions to security system performance and a range of attacks that might occur, the framework is multi-objective for a performance frontier to be estimated. This research explicitly uses probability of intruder interruption given detection (P_I) as the primary resilience metric. We demonstrate the utility of this framework with both notional as well as real-world examples of Physical Protection Systems (PPSs) and validate using a well-established force-on-force simulation tool, Umbra.

This report summarizes the work performed as part of a Laboratory Directed Research and Development project focused on evaluating and mitigating risk associated with biological dual use research of concern. The academic and scientific community has identified the funding stage as the appropriate place to intervene and mitigate risk, so the framework developed here uses a portfolio-level approach and balances biosafety and biosecurity risks, anticipated project benefits, and available mitigations to identify the best available investment strategies subject to cost constraints. The modeling toolkit was designed for decision analysis for dual use research of concern, but is flexible enough to support a wide variety of portfolio-level funding decisions where risk/benefit tradeoffs are involved. Two mathematical optimization models with two solution methods are included to accommodate stakeholders with varying levels of certainty about priorities between metrics. An example case study is presented.

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The performance of a multi-layered security system, such as those protecting high-value facilities or critical infrastructures, is characterized using several different attributes including detection and interruption probabilities, costs, and false/nuisance alarm rates. The multitude of technology options, alternative locations and configurations for those technologies, threats to the system, and resource considerations that must be weighed make exhaustive evaluation of all possible architectures extremely difficult. This paper presents an optimization model and a computationally efficient solution procedure to identify an estimated frontier of system configuration options which represent the best design choices for the user when there is uncertainty in the response time of the security force, once an intrusion has been detected. A representative example is described.

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This paper presents a probabilistic origin-destination table for waterborne containerized imports. The analysis makes use of 2012 Port Import/Export Reporting Service data, 2012 Surface Transportation Board waybill data, a gravity model, and information on the landside transportation mode split associated with specifc ports. This analysis suggests that about 70% of the origin-destination table entries have a coeffcient of variation of less than 20%. This 70% of entries is associated with about 78% of the total volume. This analysis also makes evident the importance of rail interchange points in Chicago, Illinois; Memphis, Tennessee; Dallas, Texas; and Kansas City, Missouri, in supporting the transportation of containerized goods from Asia through West Coast ports to the eastern United States.

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This Quick Start Guide is an abbreviated version of the Contingency Contractor Optimization Phase 3, User Manual for the Contingency Contractor Optimization Tool engineering prototype. It focuses on providing quick access instructions to the core activities of the two main user roles: Planning Manager and Analyst. Based on an electronic storyboard prototype developed in Phase 2, the Contingency Contractor Optimization Tool engineering prototype was refined in Phase 3 of the OSD ATL Contingency Contractor Optimization to support strategic planning for contingency contractors. The tool uses a model to optimize the total workforce mix by minimizing the combined total costs for the selected mission scenarios. The model will optimize the match of personnel types (military, DoD civilian, and contractors) and capabilities to meet the mission requirements as effectively as possible, based on risk, cost, and other requirements.

This User Manual provides step-by-step instructions on the Contingency Contractor Optimization Tool's major features. Activities are organized by user role. The Contingency Contractor Optimization project is intended to address former Secretary Gates' mandate in a January 2011 memo [1] and DoDI 3020.41 [2] by delivering a centralized strategic planning tool that allows senior decision makers to quickly and accurately assess the impacts, risks, and mitigation strategies associated with utilizing contract support. Based on an electronic storyboard prototype developed in Phase 2, the Contingency Contractor Optimization Tool engineering prototype was refined in Phase 3 of the OSD ATL Contingency Contractor Optimization project to support strategic planning for contingency contractors. The planning tool uses a model to optimize the Total Force mix by minimizing the combined total costs for the selected mission scenarios. The model will optimize the match of personnel groups (military, DoD civilian, and contractors) and capabilities to meet the mission requirements as effectively as possible, based on risk, cost, and other requirements.

This User Manual provides step-by-step instructions on the Contingency Contractor Optimization Tool's major features. Activities are organized by user role. The Contingency Contractor Optimization project is intended to address former Secretary Gates' mandate in a January 2011 memo [1] and DoDI 3020.41 [2] by delivering a centralized strategic planning tool that allows senior decision makers to quickly and accurately assess the impacts, risks, and mitigation strategies associated with utilizing contract support. Based on an electronic storyboard prototype developed in Phase 2, the Contingency Contractor Optimization Tool engineering prototype was refined in Phase 3 of the OSD ATL Contingency Contractor Optimization project to support strategic planning for contingency contractors. The planning tool uses a model to optimize the Total Force mix by minimizing the combined total costs for the selected mission scenarios. The model will optimize the match of personnel groups (military, DoD civilian, and contractors) and capabilities to meet the mission requirements as effectively as possible, based on risk, cost, and other requirements.

This Quick Start Guide is an abbreviated version of the Contingency Contractor Optimization Phase 3, User Manual for the Contingency Contractor Optimization Tool engineering prototype. It focuses on providing quick access instructions to the core activities of the two main user roles: Planning Manager and Analyst. Based on an electronic storyboard prototype developed in Phase 2, the Contingency Contractor Optimization Tool engineering prototype was refined in Phase 3 of the OSD ATL Contingency Contractor Optimization to support strategic planning for contingency contractors. The tool uses a model to optimize the total workforce mix by minimizing the combined total costs for the selected mission scenarios. The model will optimize the match of personnel types (military, DoD civilian, and contractors) and capabilities to meet the mission requirements as effectively as possible, based on risk, cost, and other requirements.

This paper focuses on optimizing the selection and configuration of detection technologies to protect a target of interest. The ability of an intruder to simply reach the target is assumed to be sufficient to consider the security system a failure. To address this problem, we develop a game theoretic model of the strategic interactions between the system owner and a knowledgeable intruder. A decomposition-based exact method is used to solve the resultant model.

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