Gaining a proper understanding of how Earth structure and other near-source properties affect estimates of explosion yield is important to the nonproliferation mission. The yields of explosion sources are often based on seismic moment or waveform amplitudes. Quantifying how the seismic waveforms or estimates of the source characteristics derived from those waveforms are influenced by natural or man-made structures within the near-source region, where the wavefield behaves nonlinearly, is required to understand the full range of uncertainty in those yield estimates. We simulate tamped chemical explosions using a nonlinear, shock physics code and couple the ground motions beyond the elastic radius to a linear elastic, full waveform seismic simulation algorithm through 3D media. In order to isolate the effects of simple small-scale 3D structures on the seismic wavefield and linear seismic source estimates, we embed spheres and cylinders close to the fully- tamped source location within an otherwise homogenous half-space. The 3 m diameters spheres, given their small size compared to the predominate wavelengths investigated, not surprisingly are virtually invisible with only negligible perturbations to the far-field waveforms and resultant seismic source time functions. Similarly, the 11 m diameter basalt sphere has a larger, but still relatively minor impact on the wavefield. However, the 11 m diameter air-filled sphere has the largest impact on both waveforms and the estimated seismic moment of any of the investigated cases with a reduction of ~25% compared to the tamped moment. This significant reduction is likely due in large part to the cavity collapsing from the shock instead of being solely due to diffraction effects . Although the cylinders have the same diameters as the 3 m spheres, their length of interaction with the wavefield produces noticeable changes to the seismic waveforms and estimated source terms with reductions in the peak seismic moment on the order of 10%. Both the cylinders and 11 m diameter spheres generate strong shear waves that appear to emanate from body force sources.
With geologic data from over 950 boreholes, Yucca Flat basin, residing on the Nevada National Security Site, has excellent borehole control on stratigraphy. These data were used to create a Geologic Framework Model (GFM) of the basin. Of these boreholes, 188 have corresponding downhole seismic survey data, which were used to determine average P-wave velocities of the geologic units and create a GFM seismostratigraphic model (GFM-SS). With the acquisition of six new active-source large-N datasets in Yucca Flat, we can now quantitatively assess the accuracy of the GFM-SS previously controlled only by borehole data. For each of the six datasets, we subset the GFM to the region of interest and create a forward model of P-wave travel times for the GFM-SS given the large-N source-receiver geometries. We first made trial-and-error adjustments to the unit velocities (while keeping the layer geometry intact) to improve the travel-time residuals. We then implemented a simulated annealing approach to find the optimal velocity model for each dataset. Our results indicate that the borehole-controlled model overestimates alluvium velocities across Yucca Flat. This result persists even when we make smaller GFM-SS models that are local to individual large-N experiments. We hypothesize that this result is a combination of shorter ray paths and the resulting lack of interaction with large-scale features (such as faults), as well as less attenuation of high frequencies in the borehole data. Both the current GFM-SS and the updated model based on median velocities that we present here overgeneralize local unit velocities, which can be quite heterogeneous in Yucca Flat.
We used the CTH shock physics code to simulate the explosion of an 18-t chemical explosive at a depth of 250 m. We used the CTH in the two-dimensional axisymmetric (cylindrical) geometry (2DC) and most simulations included fully tamped explosions in wet tuff. Our study focused on parametric studies of three of the traditional strength models available in CTH, namely, geologic-yield, elastic perfectly-plastic von Mises, and Johnson-Cook strength (flow stress) models. We processed CTH results through a code that generates Reduced Displacement Potential (RDP) histories for each simulation. Since RDP is the solution of the linear wave equation in spherical coordinates, it is mainly valid at far-enough distance from the explosion the elastic radius. Among various parameters examined, we found the yield strength to have the greatest effect on the resulting RDP, where the peak RDP reduces almost linearly in log-log space as the yield strength increases. Moreover, an underground chemical explosion results in a cavity whose final diameter is inversely proportional to the material yield strength, i.e., as the material's yield strength increases the resulting final cavity radius decreases. Additionally, we found the choice of explosive material (COMP-C4 versus COMP-B) has minor effects on the peak RDP, where denser COMP-C4 shows higher peak RDP than the less dense COMP-B by a factor of ~1.1. In addition to wet tuff, we studied explosions in dry tuff, salt, and basalt, for a single strength model and yield strength value. We found wet tuff has the highest peak RDP value, followed by dry tuff, salt, and basalt. 2DC simulations of explosions in 11 m radius spherical, hemispherical, and cylindrical cavities showed the RDP signals have much lower magnitude than tamped explosions, where the cavity explosions mimicked nearly decoupled explosions.
Rock Valley, in the southern end of the Nevada National Security Site, hosts a fault system that was responsible for a shallow (< 3 km below surface ) magnitude 3.7 earthquake in May 1993. In order to better understand this system, seismic properties of the shallow subsurface need to be better constrained. In April and May of 2021, accelerated weight drop (AWD) active-source seismic data were recorded in order to measure P- and S-wave travel-times for the area. This report describes the processing and phase picking of the recorded seismic waveforms. In total, we picked 7,982 P-wave arrivals at offsets up to ~2500 m, and 4,369 S-wave arrivals at offsets up to ~2200 m. These travel-time picks can be inverted for shallow P-wave and S-wave velocity structure in future studies.
An active source experiment using an accelerated weight drop was conducted in Rock Valley, Nevada National Security Site, during the spring of 2021 in order to characterize the shallow seismic structure of the region. P-wave first arrival travel times picked from this experiment were used to construct a preliminary 3-D compressional wave speed model over an area that is roughly 4 km wide east-west and 8 km north-south to a depth of about 500-600 m below the surface, but with primary data concentration along the transects of the experimental lines. The preliminary model shows good correlation with basic geology and surface features, but geological interpretation is not the focus of this report. We describe the methods used in the tomographic inversion of the data and show results from this preliminary P-wave model.
Most earth materials are anisotropic with regard to seismic wave-speeds, especially materials such as shales, or where oriented fractures are present. However, the base assumption for many numerical simulations is to treat earth materials as isotropic media. This is done for simplicity, the apparent weakness of anisotropy in the far field, and the lack of well-characterized anisotropic material properties for input into numerical simulations. One approach for addressing the higher complexity of actual geologic regions is to model the material as an orthorhombic medium. We have developed an explicit time-domain, finite-difference (FD) algorithm for simulating three-dimensional (3D) elastic wave propagation in a heterogeneous orthorhombic medium. The objective of this research is to investigate the errors and biases that result from modeling a non-isotropic medium as an isotropic medium. This is done by computing “observed data” by using synthetic, anisotropic simulations with the assumption of an orthorhombic, anisotropic earth model. Green’s functions for an assumed isotropic earth model are computed and then used an inversion designed to estimate moment tensors with the “observed” data. One specific area of interest is how shear waves, which are introduced in an anisotropic model even for an isotropic explosion, affect the characterization of seismic sources when isotropic earth assumptions are made. This work is done in support of the modeling component of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE), a series of underground chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS).
Seismic source modeling allows researchers both to simulate how a source that induces seismic waves interacts with the Earth to produce observed seismograms and, inversely, to infer what the time histories, sizes, and force distributions were for a seismic source given observed seismograms. In this report, we discuss improvements made in FY21 to our software as applies to both the forward and inverse seismic source modeling problems. For the forward portion of the problem, we have added the ability to use full 3-D nonlinear simulations by implementing 3-D time varying boundary conditions within Sandia’s linear seismic code Parelasti. Secondly, on the inverse source modeling side, we have developed software that allows us to invert seismic gradiometer-derived observations in conjunction with standard translational motion seismic data to infer properties of the source that may improve characterization in certain circumstances. First, we describe the basic theory behind each software enhancement and then demonstrate the software in action with some simple examples.
This report summarizes work completed under the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project "Uncertainty Quantification of Geophysical Inversion Using Stochastic Differential Equations." Geophysical inversions often require computationally expensive algorithms to find even one solution, let alone propagating uncertainties through to the solution domain. The primary purpose of this project was to find more computationally efficient means to approximate solution uncertainty in geophysical inversions. We found multiple computationally efficient methods of propagating Earth model uncertainty into uncertainties in solutions of full waveform seismic moment tensor inversions. However, the optimum method of approximating the uncertainty in these seismic source solutions was to use the Karhunen-Love theorem with data misfit residuals. This method was orders of magnitude more computationally efficient than traditional Monte Carlo methods and yielded estimates of uncertainty that closely approximated those of Monte Carlo. We will summarize the various methods we evaluated for estimating uncertainty in seismic source inversions as well as work toward this goal in the realm of 3-D seismic tomographic inversion uncertainty.
Underground explosions nonlinearly deform the surrounding earth material and can interact with the free surface to produce spall. However, at typical seismological observation distances the seismic wavefield can be accurately modeled using linear approximations. Although nonlinear algorithms can accurately simulate very near field ground motions, they are computationally expensive and potentially unnecessary for far field wave simulations. Conversely, linearized seismic wave propagation codes are orders of magnitude faster computationally and can accurately simulate the wavefield out to typical observational distances. Thus, devising a means of approximating a nonlinear source in terms of a linear equivalent source would be advantageous both for scenario modeling and for interpretation of seismic source models that are based on linear, far-field approximations. This allows fast linear seismic modeling that still incorporates many features of the nonlinear source mechanics built into the simulation results so that one can have many of the advantages of both types of simulations without the computational cost of the nonlinear computation. In this report we first show the computational advantage of using linear equivalent models, and then discuss how the near-source (within the nonlinear wavefield regime) environment affects linear source equivalents and how well we can fit seismic wavefields derived from nonlinear sources.
We present a computationally efficient method to approximate the probability distribution of seismic Green's functions given the uncertainty of an Earth model. The method is based on the Karhunen-Loève (KL) theorem and an approximation of the Green's function (or seismogram) covariance. Using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations as a control case, we demonstrate that our KL-based method can accurately reproduce a probability distribution of seismograms that results from an uncertain Earth model for a MC-derived seismogram covariance. We then describe a method to estimate the covariance of the seismograms resulting from those Earth models that is not based on MC simulations. We use the estimated Green's function covariance in conjunction with our KL-based method to produce a Green's function probability distribution, and compare that distribution to a Green's function probability distribution produced using a MC finite difference method. We find that the Green's function probability distribution approximated using our KL-based method generally mimics that produced using the MC simulations, especially for direct-arriving body waves. However the accuracy of the KL-based method generally decreases for later times in the simulated Green's function distribution.
We present preliminary work on propagating model uncertainty into the estimation of the time domain source time functions of the seismic source. Our method is based on an estimated model covariance function, which we estimate from the data. The model covariance function is then used to construct a suite of surrogate Greens functions which we use in a Monte Carlo type inversion scheme. The result is a probability density function of the six independent source time functions, each of which corresponds to an individual component of the seismic moment tensor. We compare the results of our method with those obtained using a computationally expensive finite difference Monte Carlo method and find that our new method produces results that are deficient in low frequencies. The advantage of our new method, which we term the Karhunen-Loeve Monte Carlo (KLMC) method, is that is several orders of magnitude faster than our current method, which uses a finite difference scheme to produce the suite of forward models.
The complex postdetonation geologic structures that form after an underground nuclear explosion are hard to constrain because increased heterogeneity around the damage zone affects seismic waves that propagate through the explosion site. Generally, a vertical rub-ble-filled structure known as a chimney is formed after an underground nuclear explosion that is composed of debris that falls into the subsurface cavity generated by the explosion. Compared with chimneys that collapse fully, leaving a surface crater, partially collapsed chimneys can have remnant subsurface cavities left in place above collapsed rubble. The 1964 nuclear test HADDOCK, conducted at the Nevada test site (now the Nevada National Security Site), formed a partially collapsed chimney with no surface crater. Understanding the subsurface structure of these features has significant national security applications, such as aiding the study of suspected underground nuclear explosions under a treaty verification. In this study, we investigated the subsurface architecture of the HADDOCK legacy nuclear test using hybrid 2D–3D active source seismic reflection and refraction data. The seismic data were acquired using 275 survey shots from the Seismic Hammer (a 13,000 kg weight drop) and 65 survey shots from a smaller accelerated weight drop, both recorded by ∼ 1000 three-component 5 Hz geophones. First-arrival, P-wave tomographic modeling shows a low-velocity anomaly at ∼ 200 m depth, likely an air-filled cavity caused by partial collapse of the rock column into the temporary post-detonation cavity. A high-velocity anomaly between 20 and 60 m depth represents spall-related compaction of the shallow alluvium. Hints of low velocities are also present near the burial depth ( ∼ 364 m). The reflection seismic data show a prominent subhorizontal reflector at ∼ 300 m depth, a short-curved reflector at ∼ 200 m, and a high-amplitude reflector at ∼ 50 m depth. Comparisons of the reflection sections to synthetic data and borehole stratigraphy suggest that these features correspond to the alluvium–tuff contact, the partial collapse cavity, and the spalled layer, respectively.
As a part of the series of Source Physics Experiments (SPE) conducted on the Nevada National Security Site in southern Nevada, we have developed a local-to-regional scale seismic velocity model of the site and surrounding area. Accurate earth models are critical for modeling sources like the SPE to investigate the role of earth structure on the propagation and scattering of seismic waves. We combine seismic body waves, surface waves, and gravity data in a joint inversion procedure to solve for the optimal 3D seismic compres-sional and shear-wave velocity structures and earthquake locations subject to model smoothness constraints. Earthquakes, which are relocated as part of the inversion, provide P-and S-body-wave absolute and differential travel times. Active source experiments in the region augment this dataset with P-body-wave absolute times and surface-wave dispersion data. Dense ground-based gravity observations and surface-wave dispersion derived from ambient noise in the region fill in many areas where body-wave data are sparse. In general, the top 1–2 km of the surface is relatively poorly sampled by the body waves alone. However, the addition of gravity and surface waves to the body-wave data-set greatly enhances structural resolvability in the near surface. We discuss the method-ology we developed for simultaneous inversion of these disparate data types and briefly describe results of the inversion in the context of previous work in the region.
We document azimuthally dependent seismic scattering at the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) using the large-N array. The large-N array recorded the seismic wavefield produced by the SPE-5 buried chemical explosion, which occurred in April 2016 at the Nevada National Security Site, U.S.A. By selecting a subset of vertical-component geophones from the large-N array, we formed 10 linear arrays, with different nominal source-receiver azimuths as well as six 2D arrays. For each linear array, we evaluate wavefield coherency as a function of frequency and interstation distance. For both the P arrival and post-P arrivals, the coherency is higher in the northeast propagation direction, which is consistent with the strike of the steeply dipping Boundary fault adjacent to the northwest side of the large-N array. Conventional array analysis using a suite of 2D arrays suggests that the presence of the fault may help explain the azimuthal dependence of the seismic-wave coherency for all wave types. This fault, which separates granite from alluvium, may be acting as a vertically oriented refractor and/or waveguide.