Publications

Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. Extensive studies have been performed and guidance published that highlight the key principles for saving lives following such an event. However, region-specific data are important in the planning process as well. This study examines some of the unique regional factors that impact planning for a 10 kT detonation in the National Capital Region. The work utilizes a single scenario to examine regional impacts as well as the shelter-evacuate decision alternatives at one exemplary point. For most Washington, DC neighborhoods, the excellent assessed shelter quality available make shelter-in-place or selective transit to a nearby shelter a compelling post-detonation strategy.

Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. Extensive studies have been performed and guidance published that highlight the key principles for saving lives following such an event. However, region-specific data are important in the planning process as well. This study examines some of the unique regional factors that impact planning for a 10 kt detonation in Chicago. The work utilizes a single scenario to examine regional impacts as well as the shelter-evacuate decision alternatives at selected exemplary points. For many Chicago neighborhoods, the excellent assessed shelter quality available make shelter-in-place or selective transit to a nearby shelter a compelling post-detonation strategy.

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The NUclear EVacuation Analysis Code (NUEVAC) has been developed by Sandia National Laboratories to support the analysis of shelter-evacuate (S-E) strategies following an urban nuclear detonation. This tool can model a range of behaviors, including complex evacuation timing and path selection, as well as various sheltering or mixed evacuation and sheltering strategies. The calculations are based on externally generated, high resolution fallout deposition and plume data. Scenario setup and calculation outputs make extensive use of graphics and interactive features. This software is designed primarily to produce quantitative evaluations of nuclear detonation response options. However, the outputs have also proven useful in the communication of technical insights concerning shelter-evacuate tradeoffs to urban planning or response personnel.

Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. This study examines shelter-evacuate policies and effectiveness focusing on a 10 kt scenario in Los Angeles. The goal is to provide technical insights that can support development of urban response plans. Results indicate that extended shelter-in-place can offer the most robust protection when high quality shelter exists. Where less effective shelter is available and the fallout radiation intensity level is high, informed evacuation at the appropriate time can substantially reduce the overall dose to personnel. However, uncertainties in the characteristics of the fallout region and in the exit route can make evacuation a risky strategy. Analyses indicate that only a relatively small fraction of the total urban population may experience significant dose reduction benefits from even a well-informed evacuation plan.

The Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories support the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in the development and execution of a research and development (R&D) strategy to improve the nation's preparedness against terrorist threats. Current approaches to planning and prioritization of DHS research decisions are informed by risk assessment tools and processes intended to allocate resources to programs that are likely to have the highest payoff. Early applications of such processes have faced challenges in several areas, including characterization of the intelligent adversary and linkage to strategic risk management decisions. The risk-based analysis initiatives at Sandia Laboratories could augment the methodologies currently being applied by the DHS and could support more credible R&D roadmapping for national homeland security programs. Implementation and execution issues facing homeland security R&D initiatives within the national laboratories emerged as a particular concern in this research.

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