For decades, Arctic temperatures have increased twice as fast as average global temperatures. As a first step towards quantifying parametric uncertainty in Arctic climate, we performed a variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully-coupled, ultra-low resolution (ULR) configuration of version 1 of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). Specifically, we quantified the sensitivity of six quantities of interest (QOIs), which characterize changes in Arctic climate over a 75 year period, to uncertainties in nine model parameters spanning the sea ice, atmosphere and ocean components of E3SMv1. Sensitivity indices for each QOI were computed with a Gaussian process emulator using 139 random realizations of the random parameters and fixed pre-industrial forcing. Uncertainties in the atmospheric parameters in the CLUBB (Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals) scheme were found to have the most impact on sea ice status and the larger Arctic climate. Our results demonstrate the importance of conducting sensitivity analyses with fully coupled climate models. The ULR configuration makes such studies computationally feasible today due to its low computational cost. When advances in computational power and modeling algorithms enable the tractable use of higher-resolution models, our results will provide a baseline that can quantify the impact of model resolution on the accuracy of sensitivity indices. Moreover, the confidence intervals provided by our study, which we used to quantify the impact of the number of model evaluations on the accuracy of sensitivity estimates, have the potential to inform the computational resources needed for future sensitivity studies.
We use a nascent data-driven causal discovery method to find and compare causal relationships in observed data and climate model output. We consider ten different features in the Arctic climate collected from public databases on observational and Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) data. In identifying and analyzing the resulting causal networks, we make meaningful comparisons between observed and climate model interdependencies. This work demonstrates our ability to apply the PCMCI causal discovery algorithm to Arctic climate data, that there are noticeable similarities between observed and simulated Arctic climate dynamics, and that further work is needed to identify specific areas for improvement to better align models with natural observations.
Component coupling is a crucial part of climate models, such as DOE's E3SM (Caldwell et al., 2019). A common coupling strategy in climate models is for their components to exchange flux data from the previous time-step. This approach effectively performs a single step of an iterative solution method for the monolithic coupled system, which may lead to instabilities and loss of accuracy. In this paper we formulate an Interface-Flux-Recovery (IFR) coupling method which improves upon the conventional coupling techniques in climate models. IFR starts from a monolithic formulation of the coupled discrete problem and then uses a Schur complement to obtain an accurate approximation of the flux across the interface between the model components. This decouples the individual components and allows one to solve them independently by using schemes that are optimized for each component. To demonstrate the feasibility of the method, we apply IFR to a simplified ocean–atmosphere model for heat-exchange coupled through the so-called bulk condition, common in ocean–atmosphere systems. We then solve this model on matching and non-matching grids to estimate numerically the convergence rates of the IFR coupling scheme.
This paper continues our efforts to exploit optimization and control ideas as a common foundation for the development of property-preserving numerical methods. Here we focus on a class of scalar advection equations whose solutions have fixed mass in a given Eulerian region and constant bounds in any Lagrangian volume. Our approach separates discretization of the equations from the preservation of their solution properties by treating the latter as optimization constraints. This relieves the discretization process from having to comply with additional restrictions and makes stability and accuracy the sole considerations in its design. A property-preserving solution is then sought as a state that minimizes the distance to an optimally accurate but not property-preserving target solution computed by the scheme, subject to constraints enforcing discrete proxies of the desired properties. We consider two such formulations in which the optimization variables are given by the nodal solution values and suitably defined nodal fluxes, respectively. A key result of the paper reveals that a standard Algebraic Flux Correction (AFC) scheme is a modified version of the second formulation obtained by shrinking its feasible set to a hypercube. We conclude with numerical studies illustrating the optimization-based formulations and comparing them with AFC.
Proceedings of the 6th European Conference on Computational Mechanics: Solids, Structures and Coupled Problems, ECCM 2018 and 7th European Conference on Computational Fluid Dynamics, ECFD 2018
We present an optimization approach with two controls for coupling elliptic partial differential equations posed on subdomains sharing an interface that is discretized independently on each subdomain, introducing gaps and overlaps. We use two virtual Neumann controls, one defined on each discrete interface, thereby eliminating the need for a virtual common refinement interface mesh. Global flux conservation is achieved by including the square of the difference of the total flux on each interface in the objective. We use Generalized Moving Least Squares (GMLS) reconstruction to evaluate and compare the subdomain solution and gradients at quadrature points used in the cost functional. The resulting method recovers globally linear solutions and shows optimal L2-norm and H1-norm convergence.
This report summarizes the work performed under a three year LDRD project aiming to develop mathematical and software foundations for compatible meshfree and particle discretizations. We review major technical accomplishments and project metrics such as publications, conference and colloquia presentations and organization of special sessions and minisimposia. The report concludes with a brief summary of ongoing projects and collaborations that utilize the products of this work.
Traditional explicit partitioned schemes exchange boundary conditions between subdomains and can be related to iterative solution methods for the coupled problem. As a result, these schemes may require multiple subdomain solves, acceleration techniques, or optimized transmission conditions to achieve sufficient accuracy and/or stability. We present a new synchronous partitioned method derived from a well-posed mixed finite element formulation of the coupled problem. We transform the resulting Differential Algebraic Equation (DAE) to a Hessenberg index-1 form in which the algebraic equation defines the Lagrange multiplier as an implicit function of the states. Using this fact we eliminate the multiplier and reduce the DAE to a system of explicit ODEs for the states. Explicit time integration both discretizes this system in time and decouples its equations. As a result, the temporal accuracy and stability of our formulation are governed solely by the accuracy and stability of the explicit scheme employed and are not subject to additional stability considerations as in traditional partitioned schemes. We establish sufficient conditions for the formulation to be well-posed and prove that classical mortar finite elements on the interface are a stable choice for the Lagrange multiplier. We show that in this case the condition number of the Schur complement involved in the elimination of the multiplier is bounded by a constant. The paper concludes with numerical examples illustrating the approach for two different interface problems.
Independent meshing of subdomains separated by an interface can lead to spatially non-coincident discrete interfaces. We present an optimization-based coupling method for such problems, which does not require a common mesh refinement of the interface, has optimal H1 convergence rates, and passes a patch test. The method minimizes the mismatch of the state and normal stress extensions on discrete interfaces subject to the subdomain equations, while interface “fluxes” provide virtual Neumann controls.
We present a new optimization-based, conservative, and quasi-monotone method for passive tracer transport. The scheme combines high-order spectral element discretization in space with semi-Lagrangian time stepping. Solution of a singly linearly constrained quadratic program with simple bounds enforces conservation and physically motivated solution bounds. The scheme can handle efficiently a large number of passive tracers because the semi-Lagrangian time stepping only needs to evolve the grid points where the primitive variables are stored and allows for larger time steps than a conventional explicit spectral element method. Numerical examples show that the use of optimization to enforce physical properties does not affect significantly the spectral accuracy for smooth solutions. Performance studies reveal the benefits of high-order approximations, including for discontinuous solutions.
This study began with a challenge from program area managers at Sandia National Laboratories to technical staff in the energy, climate, and infrastructure security areas: apply a systems-level perspective to existing science and technology program areas in order to determine technology gaps, identify new technical capabilities at Sandia that could be applied to these areas, and identify opportunities for innovation. The Arctic was selected as one of these areas for systems level analyses, and this report documents the results. In this study, an emphasis was placed on the arctic atmosphere since Sandia has been active in atmospheric research in the Arctic since 1997. This study begins with a discussion of the challenges and benefits of analyzing the Arctic as a system. It goes on to discuss current and future needs of the defense, scientific, energy, and intelligence communities for more comprehensive data products related to the Arctic; assess the current state of atmospheric measurement resources available for the Arctic; and explain how the capabilities at Sandia National Laboratories can be used to address the identified technological, data, and modeling needs of the defense, scientific, energy, and intelligence communities for Arctic support.
Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system, reflecting a significant amount of solar radiation, insulating the ocean from the atmosphere and influencing ocean circulation by modifying the salinity of the upper ocean. The thickness and extent of Arctic sea ice have shown a significant decline in recent decades with implications for global climate as well as regional geopolitics. Increasing interest in exploration as well as climate feedback effects make predictive mathematical modeling of sea ice a task of tremendous practical import. Satellite data obtained over the last few decades have provided a wealth of information on sea ice motion and deformation. The data clearly show that ice deformation is focused along narrow linear features and this type of deformation is not well-represented in existing models. To improve sea ice dynamics we have incorporated an anisotropic rheology into the Los Alamos National Laboratory global sea ice model, CICE. Sensitivity analyses were performed using the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA) to determine the impact of material parameters on sea ice response functions. Two material strength parameters that exhibited the most significant impact on responses were further analyzed to evaluate their influence on quantitative comparisons between model output and data. The sensitivity analysis along with ten year model runs indicate that while the anisotropic rheology provides some benefit in velocity predictions, additional improvements are required to make this material model a viable alternative for global sea ice simulations.
In [3] we proposed a new Control Volume Finite Element Method with multi-dimensional, edge- based Scharfetter-Gummel upwinding (CVFEM-MDEU). This report follows up with a detailed computational study of the method. The study compares the CVFEM-MDEU method with other CVFEM and FEM formulations for a set of standard scalar advection-diffusion test problems in two dimensions. The first two CVFEM formulations are derived from the CVFEM-MDEU by simplifying the computation of the flux integrals on the sides of the control volumes, the third is the nodal CVFEM [2] without upwinding, and the fourth is the streamline upwind version of CVFEM [10]. The finite elements in our study are the standard Galerkin, SUPG and artificial diffusion methods. All studies employ logically Cartesian partitions of the unit square into quadrilateral elements. Both uniform and non-uniform grids are considered. Our results demonstrate that CVFEM-MDEU and its simplified versions perform equally well on rectangular or nearly rectangular grids. However, performance of the simplified versions significantly degrades on non-affine grids, whereas the CVFEM-MDEU remains stable and accurate over a wide range of mesh Peclet numbers and non-affine grids. Compared to FEM formulations the CVFEM-MDEU appears to be slightly more dissipative than the SUPG, but has much less local overshoots and undershoots.
Arctic sea ice plays an important role in global climate by reflecting solar radiation and insulating the ocean from the atmosphere. Due to feedback effects, the Arctic sea ice cover is changing rapidly. To accurately model this change, high-resolution calculations must incorporate: (1) annual cycle of growth and melt due to radiative forcing; (2) mechanical deformation due to surface winds, ocean currents and Coriolis forces; and (3) localized effects of leads and ridges. We have demonstrated a new mathematical algorithm for solving the sea ice governing equations using the material-point method with an elastic-decohesive constitutive model. An initial comparison with the LANL CICE code indicates that the ice edge is sharper using Materials-Point Method (MPM), but that many of the overall features are similar.