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Pyomo.GDP: an ecosystem for logic based modeling and optimization development

Optimization and Engineering

Chen, Qi; Johnson, Emma S.; Bernal, David E.; Valentin, Romeo; Kale, Sunjeev; Bates, Johnny; Siirola, John D.; Grossmann, Ignacio E.

We present three core principles for engineering-oriented integrated modeling and optimization tool sets—intuitive modeling contexts, systematic computer-aided reformulations, and flexible solution strategies—and describe how new developments in Pyomo.GDP for Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP) advance this vision. We describe a new logical expression system implementation for Pyomo.GDP allowing for a more intuitive description of logical propositions. The logical expression system supports automated reformulation of these logical constraints to linear constraints. We also describe two new logic-based global optimization solver implementations built on Pyomo.GDP that exploit logical structure to avoid “zero-flow” numerical difficulties that arise in nonlinear network design problems when nodes or streams disappear. These new solvers also demonstrate the capability to link to external libraries for expanded functionality within an integrated implementation. We present these new solvers in the context of a flexible array of solution paths available to GDP models. Finally, we present results on a new library of GDP models demonstrating the value of multiple solution approaches.

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NMSBA Sustainable Engineering (Final Report)

Nicholson, Bethany L.; Siirola, John D.

This report summarizes the guidance provided to Sustainable Engineering to help them learn about equation-oriented optimization and the Sandia-developed software packages Pyomo and IDAESPSE. This was a short 10-week project (October 2021 – December 2021) and the goal was to help the company learn about the IDAES framework and how it could be used for their future projects. The company submitted an SBIR proposal related to developing a green ammonia process model with IDAES and if that proposal is successful this NMSBA project could lead to future collaboration opportunities.

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Large-scale Nonlinear Approaches for Inference of Reporting Dynamics and Unobserved SARS-CoV-2 Infections

Hart, William E.; Bynum, Michael L.; Laird, Carl L.; Siirola, John D.; Staid, Andrea S.

This work focuses on estimation of unknown states and parameters in a discrete-time, stochastic, SEIR model using reported case counts and mortality data. An SEIR model is based on classifying individuals with respect to their status in regards to the progression of the disease, where S is the number individuals who remain susceptible to the disease, E is the number of individuals who have been exposed to the disease but not yet infectious, I is the number of individuals who are currently infectious, and R is the number of recovered individuals. For convenience, we include in our notation the number of infections or transmissions, T, that represents the number of individuals transitioning from compartment S to compartment E over a particular interval. Similarly, we use C to represent the number of reported cases.

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SUSPECT: MINLP special structure detector for Pyomo

Optimization Letters

Ceccon, Francesco; Siirola, John D.; Misener, Ruth

We present SUSPECT, an open source toolkit that symbolically analyzes mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problems formulated using the Python algebraic modeling library Pyomo. We present the data structures and algorithms used to implement SUSPECT. SUSPECT works on a directed acyclic graph representation of the optimization problem to perform: bounds tightening, bound propagation, monotonicity detection, and convexity detection. We show how the tree-walking rules in SUSPECT balance the need for lightweight computation with effective special structure detection. SUSPECT can be used as a standalone tool or as a Python library to be integrated in other tools or solvers. We highlight the easy extensibility of SUSPECT with several recent convexity detection tricks from the literature. We also report experimental results on the MINLPLib 2 dataset.

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Second-Order Multiplier Updates to Accelerate Admm Methods in Optimization Under Uncertainty

Computer Aided Chemical Engineering

Rodriguez, Jose S.; Hackebeil, Gabriel; Siirola, John D.; Zavala, Victor M.; Laird, Carl D.

There is a need for efficient optimization strategies to efficiently solve large-scale, nonlinear optimization problems. Many problem classes, including design under uncertainty are inherently structured and can be accelerated with decomposition approaches. This paper describes a second-order multiplier update for the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) to solve nonlinear stochastic programming problems. We exploit connections between ADMM and the Schur-complement decomposition to derive an accelerated version of ADMM. Specifically, we study the effectiveness of performing a Newton-Raphson algorithm to compute multiplier estimates for the method of multipliers (MM). We interpret ADMM as a decomposable version of MM and propose modifications to the multiplier update of the standard ADMM scheme based on improvements observed in MM. The modifications to the ADMM algorithm seek to accelerate solutions of optimization problems for design under uncertainty and the numerical effectiveness of the approaches is demonstrated on a set of ten stochastic programming problems. Practical strategies for improving computational performance are discussed along with comparisons between the algorithms. We observe that the second-order update achieves convergence in fewer unconstrained minimizations for MM on general nonlinear problems. In the case of ADMM, the second-order update reduces significantly the number of subproblem solves for convex quadratic programs (QPs).

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A framework for modeling and optimizing dynamic systems under uncertainty

Computers and Chemical Engineering

Nicholson, Bethany L.; Siirola, John D.

Algebraic modeling languages (AMLs) have drastically simplified the implementation of algebraic optimization problems. However, there are still many classes of optimization problems that are not easily represented in most AMLs. These classes of problems are typically reformulated before implementation, which requires significant effort and time from the modeler and obscures the original problem structure or context. In this work we demonstrate how the Pyomo AML can be used to represent complex optimization problems using high-level modeling constructs. We focus on the operation of dynamic systems under uncertainty and demonstrate the combination of Pyomo extensions for dynamic optimization and stochastic programming. We use a dynamic semibatch reactor model and a large-scale bubbling fluidized bed adsorber model as test cases.

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pyomo.dae: a modeling and automatic discretization framework for optimization with differential and algebraic equations

Mathematical Programming Computation

Nicholson, Bethany L.; Siirola, John D.; Watson, Jean-Paul W.; Zavala, Victor M.; Biegler, Lorenz T.

We describe pyomo.dae, an open source Python-based modeling framework that enables high-level abstract specification of optimization problems with differential and algebraic equations. The pyomo.dae framework is integrated with the Pyomo open source algebraic modeling language, and is available at http://www.pyomo.org. One key feature of pyomo.dae is that it does not restrict users to standard, predefined forms of differential equations, providing a high degree of modeling flexibility and the ability to express constraints that cannot be easily specified in other modeling frameworks. Other key features of pyomo.dae are the ability to specify optimization problems with high-order differential equations and partial differential equations, defined on restricted domain types, and the ability to automatically transform high-level abstract models into finite-dimensional algebraic problems that can be solved with off-the-shelf solvers. Moreover, pyomo.dae users can leverage existing capabilities of Pyomo to embed differential equation models within stochastic and integer programming models and mathematical programs with equilibrium constraint formulations. Collectively, these features enable the exploration of new modeling concepts, discretization schemes, and the benchmarking of state-of-the-art optimization solvers.

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Solution Approaches to Stochastic Programming Problems under Endogenous and/or Exogenous Uncertainties

Computer Aided Chemical Engineering

Cremaschi, Selen; Siirola, John D.

Optimization problems under uncertainty involve making decisions without the full knowledge of the impact the decisions will have and before all the facts relevant to those decisions are known. These problems are common, for example, in process synthesis and design, planning and scheduling, supply chain management, and generation and distribution of electric power. The sources of uncertainty in optimization problems fall into two broad categories: endogenous and exogenous. Exogenous uncertain parameters are realized at a known stage (e.g., time period or decision point) in the problem irrespective of the values of the decision variables. For example, demand is generally considered to be independent of any capacity expansion decisions in process industries, and hence, is regarded as an exogenous uncertain parameter. In contrast, decisions impact endogenous uncertain parameters. The impact can either be in the resolution or in the distribution of the uncertain parameter. The realized values of a Type-I endogenous uncertain parameter are affected by the decisions. An example of this type of uncertainty would be facility protection problem where the likelihood of a facility failing to deliver goods or services after a disruptive event depends on the level of resources allocated as protection to that facility. On the other hand, only the realization times of Type-II endogenous uncertain parameters are affected by decisions. For example, in a clinical trial planning problem, whether a clinical trial is successful or not is only realized after the clinical trial has been completed, and whether the clinical trial is successful or not is not impacted by when the clinical trial is started. There are numerous approaches to modelling and solving optimization problems with exogenous and/or endogenous uncertainty, including (adjustable) robust optimization, (approximate) dynamic programming, model predictive control, and stochastic programming. Stochastic programming is a particularly attractive approach, as there is a straightforward translation from the deterministic model to the stochastic equivalent. The challenge with stochastic programming arises through the rapid, sometimes exponential, growth in the program size as we sample the uncertainty space or increase the number of recourse stages. In this talk, we will give an overview of our research activities developing practical stochastic programming approaches to problems with exogeneous and/or endogenous uncertainty. We will highlight several examples from power systems planning and operations, process modelling, synthesis and design optimization, artificial lift infrastructure planning for shale gas production, and clinical trial planning. We will begin by discussing the straightforward case of exogenous uncertainty. In this situation, the stochastic program can be expressed completely by a deterministic model, a scenario tree, and the scenario-specific parameterizations of the deterministic model. Beginning with the deterministic model, modelers create instances of the deterministic model for each scenario using the scenario-specific data. Coupling the scenario models occurs through the addition of nonanticipativity constraints, equating the stage decision variables across all scenarios that pass through the same stage node in the scenario tree. Modelling tools like PySP (Watson, 2012) greatly simplify the process of composing large stochastic programs by beginning either with an abstract representation of the deterministic model written in Pyomo (Hart, et al., 2017) and scenario data, or a function that will return the deterministic Pyomo model for a specific scenario. PySP automatically can create the extensive form (deterministic equivalent) model from a general representation of the scenario tree. The challenge with large scale stochastic programs with exogenous uncertainty arises through managing the growth of the problem size. Fortunately, there are several well-known approaches to decomposing the problem, both stage-wise (e.g., Benders’ decomposition) and scenario-based (e.g., Lagrangian relaxation or Progressive Hedging), enabling the direct solution of stochastic programs with hundreds or thousands of scenarios. We will then discuss developments in modelling and solving stochastic programs with endogenous uncertainty. These problems are significantly more challenging to both pose and to solve, due to the exponential growth in scenarios required to cover the decision-dependent uncertainties relative to the number of stages in the problem. In this situation, standardized frameworks for expressing stochastic programs do not exist, requiring a modeler to explicitly generate the representations and nonanticipativity constraints. Further, the size of the resulting scenario space (frequently exceeding millions of scenarios) precludes the direct solution of the resulting program. In this case, numerous decomposition algorithms and heuristics have been developed (e.g., Lagrangean decomposition-based algorithms (Tarhan, et al. 2013) or Knapsack-based decomposition Algorithms (Christian and Cremaschi, 2015)).

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Pyomo.GDP: Disjunctive Models in Python

Computer Aided Chemical Engineering

Chen, Qi; Johnson, Emma S.; Siirola, John D.; Grossmann, Ignacio E.

In this work, we describe new capabilities for the Pyomo.GDP modeling environment, moving beyond classical reformulation approaches to include non-standard reformulations and a new logic-based solver, GDPopt. Generalized Disjunctive Programs (GDPs) address optimization problems involving both discrete and continuous decision variables. For difficult problems, advanced reformulations such as the disjunctive “basic step” to intersect multiple disjunctions or the use of procedural reformulations may be necessary. Complex nonlinear GDP models may also be tackled using logic-based outer approximation. These expanded capabilities highlight the flexibility that Pyomo.GDP offers modelers in applying novel strategies to solve difficult optimization problems.

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Modeling Bilevel Programs in Pyomo

Hart, William E.; Watson, Jean-Paul W.; Siirola, John D.; Chen, Richard L.

We describe new capabilities for modeling bilevel programs within the Pyomo modeling software. These capabilities include new modeling components that represent subproblems, modeling transformations for re-expressing models with bilevel structure in other forms, and optimize bilevel programs with meta-solvers that apply transformations and then perform op- timization on the resulting model. We illustrate the breadth of Pyomo's modeling capabilities for bilevel programs, and we describe how Pyomo's meta-solvers can perform local and global optimization of bilevel programs.

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Testing contamination source identification methods for water distribution networks

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management

Seth, Arpan; Klise, Katherine A.; Siirola, John D.; Haxton, Terranna; Laird, Carl D.

In the event of contamination in a water distribution network (WDN), source identification (SI) methods that analyze sensor data can be used to identify the source location(s). Knowledge of the source location and characteristics are important to inform contamination control and cleanup operations. Various SI strategies that have been developed by researchers differ in their underlying assumptions and solution techniques. The following manuscript presents a systematic procedure for testing and evaluating SI methods. The performance of these SI methods is affected by various factors including the size of WDN model, measurement error, modeling error, time and number of contaminant injections, and time and number of measurements. This paper includes test cases that vary these factors and evaluates three SI methods on the basis of accuracy and specificity. The tests are used to review and compare these different SI methods, highlighting their strengths in handling various identification scenarios. These SI methods and a testing framework that includes the test cases and analysis tools presented in this paper have been integrated into EPA's Water Security Toolkit (WST), a suite of software tools to help researchers and others in the water industry evaluate and plan various response strategies in case of a contamination incident. Finally, a set of recommendations are made for users to consider when working with different categories of SI methods.

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Evaluating Moving Target Defense with PLADD

Jones, Stephen T.; Outkin, Alexander V.; Gearhart, Jared L.; Hobbs, Jacob A.; Siirola, John D.; Phillips, Cynthia A.; Verzi, Stephen J.; Tauritz, Daniel T.; Mulder, Samuel A.; Naugle, Asmeret B.

This project evaluates the effectiveness of moving target defense (MTD) techniques using a new game we have designed, called PLADD, inspired by the game FlipIt [28]. PLADD extends FlipIt by incorporating what we believe are key MTD concepts. We have analyzed PLADD and proven the existence of a defender strategy that pushes a rational attacker out of the game, demonstrated how limited the strategies available to an attacker are in PLADD, and derived analytic expressions for the expected utility of the game’s players in multiple game variants. We have created an algorithm for finding a defender’s optimal PLADD strategy. We show that in the special case of achieving deterrence in PLADD, MTD is not always cost effective and that its optimal deployment may shift abruptly from not using MTD at all to using it as aggressively as possible. We believe our effort provides basic, fundamental insights into the use of MTD, but conclude that a truly practical analysis requires model selection and calibration based on real scenarios and empirical data. We propose several avenues for further inquiry, including (1) agents with adaptive capabilities more reflective of real world adversaries, (2) the presence of multiple, heterogeneous adversaries, (3) computational game theory-based approaches such as coevolution to allow scaling to the real world beyond the limitations of analytical analysis and classical game theory, (4) mapping the game to real-world scenarios, (5) taking player risk into account when designing a strategy (in addition to expected payoff), (6) improving our understanding of the dynamic nature of MTD-inspired games by using a martingale representation, defensive forecasting, and techniques from signal processing, and (7) using adversarial games to develop inherently resilient cyber systems.

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Modeling Mathematical Programs with Equilibrium Constraints in Pyomo

Hart, William E.; Siirola, John D.

We describe new capabilities for modeling MPEC problems within the Pyomo modeling software. These capabilities include new modeling components that represent complementar- ity conditions, modeling transformations for re-expressing models with complementarity con- ditions in other forms, and meta-solvers that apply transformations and numeric optimization solvers to optimize MPEC problems. We illustrate the breadth of Pyomo's modeling capabil- ities for MPEC problems, and we describe how Pyomo's meta-solvers can perform local and global optimization of MPEC problems.

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Water Security Toolkit User Manual Version 1.2

Klise, Katherine A.; Siirola, John D.; Hart, David B.; Hart, William E.; Phillips, Cynthia A.; Haxton, Terranna H.; Murray, Regan M.; Janke, Robert J.; Taxon, Thomas T.; Laird, Carl L.; Seth, Arpan S.; Hackebeil, Gabriel H.; McGee, Shawn M.; Mann, Angelica M.

The Water Security Toolkit (WST) is a suite of open source software tools that can be used by water utilities to create response strategies to reduce the impact of contamination in a water distribution network . WST includes hydraulic and water quality modeling software , optimizati on methodologies , and visualization tools to identify: (1) sensor locations to detect contamination, (2) locations in the network in which the contamination was introduced, (3) hydrants to remove contaminated water from the distribution system, (4) locations in the network to inject decontamination agents to inactivate, remove, or destroy contaminants, (5) locations in the network to take grab sample s to help identify the source of contamination and (6) valves to close in order to isolate contaminate d areas of the network. This user manual describes the different components of WST , along w ith examples and case studies. License Notice The Water Security Toolkit (WST) v.1.2 Copyright c 2012 Sandia Corporation. Under the terms of Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000, there is a non-exclusive license for use of this work by or on behalf of the U.S. government. This software is distributed under the Revised BSD License (see below). In addition, WST leverages a variety of third-party software packages, which have separate licensing policies: Acro Revised BSD License argparse Python Software Foundation License Boost Boost Software License Coopr Revised BSD License Coverage BSD License Distribute Python Software Foundation License / Zope Public License EPANET Public Domain EPANET-ERD Revised BSD License EPANET-MSX GNU Lesser General Public License (LGPL) v.3 gcovr Revised BSD License GRASP AT&T Commercial License for noncommercial use; includes randomsample and sideconstraints executable files LZMA SDK Public Domain nose GNU Lesser General Public License (LGPL) v.2.1 ordereddict MIT License pip MIT License PLY BSD License PyEPANET Revised BSD License Pyro MIT License PyUtilib Revised BSD License PyYAML MIT License runpy2 Python Software Foundation License setuptools Python Software Foundation License / Zope Public License six MIT License TinyXML zlib License unittest2 BSD License Utilib Revised BSD License virtualenv MIT License Vol Common Public License vpykit Revised BSD License Additionally, some precompiled WST binary distributions might bundle other third-party executables files: Coliny Revised BSD License (part of Acro project) Dakota GNU Lesser General Public License (LGPL) v.2.1 PICO Revised BSD License (part of Acro project) i Revised BSD License Redistribution and use in source and binary forms, with or without modification, are permitted provided that the following conditions are met: * Redistributions of source code must retain the above copyright notice, this list of conditions and the following disclaimer. * Redistributions in binary form must reproduce the above copyright notice, this list of conditions and the following disclaimer in the documentation and/or other materials provided with the distribution. * Neither the name of Sandia National Laboratories nor Sandia Corporation nor the names of its con- tributors may be used to endorse or promote products derived from this software without specific prior written permission. THIS SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED BY THE COPYRIGHT HOLDERS AND CONTRIBUTORS "AS IS" AND ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE IM- PLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE ARE DISCLAIMED. IN NO EVENT SHALL SANDIA CORPORATION BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, EXEMPLARY, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUD- ING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, PROCUREMENT OF SUBSTITUTE GOODS OR SERVICES; LOSS OF USE, DATA, OR PROFITS; OR BUSINESS INTERRUPTION) HOWEVER CAUSED AND ON ANY THEORY OF LIABILITY, WHETHER IN CONTRACT, STRICT LIABILITY, OR TORT (INCLUDING NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE) ARISING IN ANY WAY OUT OF THE USE OF THIS SOFTWARE, EVEN IF ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGE. ii Acknowledgements This work was supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency through its Office of Research and Development (Interagency Agreement # DW8992192801). The material in this document has been subject to technical and policy review by the U.S. EPA, and approved for publication. The views expressed by individual authors, however, are their own, and do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Mention of trade names, products, or services does not convey official U.S. EPA approval, endorsement, or recommendation. The Water Security Toolkit is an extension of the Threat Ensemble Vulnerability Assessment-Sensor Place- ment Optimization Tool (TEVA-SPOT), which was also developed with funding from the U.S. Environ- mental Protection Agency through its Office of Research and Development (Interagency Agreement # DW8992192801). The authors acknowledge the following individuals for their contributions to the devel- opment of TEVA-SPOT: Jonathan Berry (Sandia National Laboratories), Erik Boman (Sandia National Laboratories), Lee Ann Riesen (Sandia National Laboratories), James Uber (University of Cincinnati), and Jean-Paul Watson (Sandia National Laboratories). iii Acronyms ATUS American Time-Use Survey BLAS Basic linear algebra sub-routines CFU Colony-forming unit CVAR Conditional value at risk CWS Contamination warning system EA Evolutionary algorithm EDS Event detection system EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency EC Extent of Contamination ERD EPANET results database file GLPK GNU Linear Programming Kit GRASP Greedy randomized adaptive sampling process HEX Hexadecimal HTML HyperText markup language INP EPANET input file LP Linear program MC Mass consumed MILP Mixed integer linear program MIP Mixed integer program MSX Multi-species extension for EPANET NFD Number of failed detections NS Number of sensors NZD Non-zero demand PD Population dosed PE Population exposed PK Population killed TAI Threat assessment input file TCE Tailed-conditioned expectation TD Time to detection TEC Timed extent of contamination TEVA Threat ensemble vulnerability assessment TSB Tryptic soy broth TSG Threat scenario generation file TSI Threat simulation input file VAR Value at risk VC Volume consumed WST Water Security Toolkit YML YAML configuration file format for WST iv Symbols Notation Definition Example { , } set brackets { 1,2,3 } means a set containing the values 1,2, and 3. [?] is an element of s [?] S means that s is an element of the set S . [?] for all s = 1 [?] s [?] S means that the statement s = 1 is true for all s in set S . P summation P n i =1 s i means s 1 + s 2 + * * * + s n . \ set minus S \ T means the set that contains all those elements of S that are not in set T . %7C given %7C is used to define conditional probability. P ( s %7C t ) means the prob- ability of s occurring given that t occurs. %7C ... %7C cardinality Cardinality of a set is the number of elements of the set. If set S = { 2,4,6 } , then %7C S %7C = 3. v

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Decision insight into stakeholder conflict for ERN

Siirola, John D.; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Warrender, Christina E.; Morrow, James D.; Benz, Zachary O.

Participatory modeling has become an important tool in facilitating resource decision making and dispute resolution. Approaches to modeling that are commonly used in this context often do not adequately account for important human factors. Current techniques provide insights into how certain human activities and variables affect resource outcomes; however, they do not directly simulate the complex variables that shape how, why, and under what conditions different human agents behave in ways that affect resources and human interactions related to them. Current approaches also do not adequately reveal how the effects of individual decisions scale up to have systemic level effects in complex resource systems. This lack of integration prevents the development of more robust models to support decision making and dispute resolution processes. Development of integrated tools is further hampered by the fact that collection of primary data for decision-making modeling is costly and time consuming. This project seeks to develop a new approach to resource modeling that incorporates both technical and behavioral modeling techniques into a single decision-making architecture. The modeling platform is enhanced by use of traditional and advanced processes and tools for expedited data capture. Specific objectives of the project are: (1) Develop a proof of concept for a new technical approach to resource modeling that combines the computational techniques of system dynamics and agent based modeling, (2) Develop an iterative, participatory modeling process supported with traditional and advance data capture techniques that may be utilized to facilitate decision making, dispute resolution, and collaborative learning processes, and (3) Examine potential applications of this technology and process. The development of this decision support architecture included both the engineering of the technology and the development of a participatory method to build and apply the technology. Stakeholder interaction with the model and associated data capture was facilitated through two very different modes of engagement, one a standard interface involving radio buttons, slider bars, graphs and plots, while the other utilized an immersive serious gaming interface. The decision support architecture developed through this project was piloted in the Middle Rio Grande Basin to examine how these tools might be utilized to promote enhanced understanding and decision-making in the context of complex water resource management issues. Potential applications of this architecture and its capacity to lead to enhanced understanding and decision-making was assessed through qualitative interviews with study participants who represented key stakeholders in the basin.

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Optimization of large-scale heterogeneous system-of-systems models

Gray, Genetha A.; Hart, William E.; Hough, Patricia D.; Parekh, Ojas D.; Phillips, Cynthia A.; Siirola, John D.; Swiler, Laura P.; Watson, Jean-Paul W.

Decision makers increasingly rely on large-scale computational models to simulate and analyze complex man-made systems. For example, computational models of national infrastructures are being used to inform government policy, assess economic and national security risks, evaluate infrastructure interdependencies, and plan for the growth and evolution of infrastructure capabilities. A major challenge for decision makers is the analysis of national-scale models that are composed of interacting systems: effective integration of system models is difficult, there are many parameters to analyze in these systems, and fundamental modeling uncertainties complicate analysis. This project is developing optimization methods to effectively represent and analyze large-scale heterogeneous system of systems (HSoS) models, which have emerged as a promising approach for describing such complex man-made systems. These optimization methods enable decision makers to predict future system behavior, manage system risk, assess tradeoffs between system criteria, and identify critical modeling uncertainties.

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Assessing the Near-Term Risk of Climate Uncertainty:Interdependencies among the U.S. States

Backus, George A.; Trucano, Timothy G.; Robinson, David G.; Adams, Brian M.; Richards, Elizabeth H.; Siirola, John D.; Boslough, Mark B.; Taylor, Mark A.; Conrad, Stephen H.; Kelic, Andjelka; Roach, Jesse D.; Warren, Drake E.; Ballantine, Marissa D.; Stubblefield, W.A.; Snyder, Lillian A.; Finley, Ray E.; Horschel, Daniel S.; Ehlen, Mark E.; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Stamber, Kevin L.; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Vargas, Vanessa N.; Zagonel, Aldo A.

Abstract not provided.

Pyomo : Python Optimization Modeling Objects

Siirola, John D.; Watson, Jean-Paul W.; Hart, William E.

The Python Optimization Modeling Objects (Pyomo) package [1] is an open source tool for modeling optimization applications within Python. Pyomo provides an objected-oriented approach to optimization modeling, and it can be used to define symbolic problems, create concrete problem instances, and solve these instances with standard solvers. While Pyomo provides a capability that is commonly associated with algebraic modeling languages such as AMPL, AIMMS, and GAMS, Pyomo's modeling objects are embedded within a full-featured high-level programming language with a rich set of supporting libraries. Pyomo leverages the capabilities of the Coopr software library [2], which integrates Python packages (including Pyomo) for defining optimizers, modeling optimization applications, and managing computational experiments. A central design principle within Pyomo is extensibility. Pyomo is built upon a flexible component architecture [3] that allows users and developers to readily extend the core Pyomo functionality. Through these interface points, extensions and applications can have direct access to an optimization model's expression objects. This facilitates the rapid development and implementation of new modeling constructs and as well as high-level solution strategies (e.g. using decomposition- and reformulation-based techniques). In this presentation, we will give an overview of the Pyomo modeling environment and model syntax, and present several extensions to the core Pyomo environment, including support for Generalized Disjunctive Programming (Coopr GDP), Stochastic Programming (PySP), a generic Progressive Hedging solver [4], and a tailored implementation of Bender's Decomposition.

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Current trends in parallel computation and the implications for modeling and optimization

Computer Aided Chemical Engineering

Siirola, John D.

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Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis

Backus, George A.; Strip, David R.; Siirola, John D.; Bastian, Mark S.; Schoenwald, David A.; Braithwaite, Karl R.

This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

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127 Results
127 Results