Publications

This report documents a probabilistic risk assessment of an existing power supply system at a large telecommunications office. The focus is on characterizing the increase in the reliability of power supply through the use of two alternative power configurations. Telecommunications has been identified by the Department of Homeland Security as a critical infrastructure to the United States. Failures in the power systems supporting major telecommunications service nodes are a main contributor to major telecommunications outages. A logical approach to improve the robustness of telecommunication facilities would be to increase the depth and breadth of technologies available to restore power in the face of power outages. Distributed energy resources such as fuel cells and gas turbines could provide one more onsite electric power source to provide backup power, if batteries and diesel generators fail. The analysis is based on a hierarchical Bayesian approach and focuses on the failure probability associated with each of three possible facility configurations, along with assessment of the uncertainty or confidence level in the probability of failure. A risk-based characterization of final best configuration is presented.

This report began with a Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project to improve Sandia National Laboratories multidisciplinary capabilities in energy systems analysis. The aim is to understand how various electricity generating options can best serve needs in the United States. The initial product is documented in a series of white papers that span a broad range of topics, including the successes and failures of past modeling studies, sustainability, oil dependence, energy security, and nuclear power. Summaries of these projects are included here. These projects have provided a background and discussion framework for the Energy Systems Analysis LDRD team to carry out an inter-comparison of many of the commonly available electric power sources in present use, comparisons of those options, and efforts needed to realize progress towards those options. A computer aid has been developed to compare various options based on cost and other attributes such as technological, social, and policy constraints. The Energy Systems Analysis team has developed a multi-criteria framework that will allow comparison of energy options with a set of metrics that can be used across all technologies. This report discusses several evaluation techniques and introduces the set of criteria developed for this LDRD.

Abstract not provided.

Bayesian medical monitoring is a concept based on using real-time performance-related data to make statistical predictions about a patient's future health. The following paper discusses the fundamentals behind the medical monitoring concept and the application to monitoring the health of nuclear reactors. Necessary assumptions are discussed regarding distributions and failure-rate calculations. A simple example is performed to illustrate the effectiveness of the methods. The methods perform very well for the thirteen subjects in the example, with a clear failure sequence identified for eleven of the subjects.

Abstract not provided.