Characterization of induced microseismicity at a carbon dioxide (CO2) storage site is critical for preserving reservoir integrity and mitigating seismic hazards. We apply a multilevel machine learning (ML) approach that combines the nonnegative matrix factorization and hidden Markov model to extract spectral representations of microseismic events and cluster them to identify seismic patterns at the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project. Unlike traditional waveform correlation methods, this approach leverages spectral characteristics of first arrivals to improve event classification and detect previously undetected planes of weakness. By integrating ML-based clustering with focal mechanism analysis, we resolve small-scale fault structures that are below the detection limits of conventional seismic imaging. Our findings reveal temporal bursts of microseismicity associated with brittle failure, providing insights into the spatio-temporal evolution of fault reactivation during CO2 injection. This approach enhances seismic monitoring capabilities at CO2 injection sites by improving fault characterization beyond the resolution of standard geophysical surveys.
We numerically investigate the mechanisms that resulted in induced seismicity occurrence associated with CO2 injection at the Illinois Basin–Decatur Project (IBDP). We build a geologi-cally consistent model that honors key stratigraphic horizons and 3D fault surfaces inter-preted using surface seismic data and microseismicity locations. We populate our model with reservoir and geomechanical properties estimated using well-log and core data. We then performed coupled multiphase flow and geomechanics modeling to investigate the impact of CO2 injection on fault stability using the Coulomb failure criteria. We calibrate our flow model using measured reservoir pressure during the CO2 injection phase. Our model results show that pore-pressure diffusion along faults connecting the injection inter-val to the basement is essential to explain the destabilization of the regions where micro-seismicity occurred, and that poroelastic stresses alone would result in stabilization of those regions. Slip tendency analysis indicates that, due to their orientations with respect to the maximum horizontal stress direction, the faults where the microseismicity occurred were very close to failure prior to injection. These model results highlight the importance of accurate subsurface fault characterization for CO2 sequestration operations.
The transmission interference fringe (TIF) technique was developed to visualize the dynamics of evaporating droplets based on the Reflection Interference Fringe (RIF) technique for micro-sized droplets. The geometric formulation was conducted to determine the contact angle (CA) and height of macro-sized droplets without the need for the prism used in RIF. The TIF characteristics were analyzed through experiments and simulations to demonstrate a wider range of contact angles from 0 to 90°, in contrast to RIF's limited range of 0-30°. TIF was utilized to visualize the dynamic evaporation of droplets in the constant contact radius (CCR) mode, observing the droplet profile change from convex-only to convex-concave at the end of dry-out from the interference fringe formation. The TIF also observed the contact angle increase from the fringe radius increase. This observation is uniquely reported as the interference fringe (IF) technique can detect the formation of interference fringe between the reflection from the center convex profile and the reflection from the edge concave profile on the far-field screen. Unlike general microscopy techniques, TIF can detect far-field interference fringes as it focuses beyond the droplet-substrate interface. The formation of the convex-concave profile during CCR evaporation is believed to be influenced by the non-uniform evaporative flux along the droplet surface.
Estimating spatially distributed properties such as permeability from available sparse measurements is a great challenge in efficient subsurface CO2 storage operations. In this paper, a deep generative model that can accurately capture complex subsurface structure is tested with an ensemble-based inversion method for accurate and accelerated characterization of CO2 storage sites. We chose Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) for its realistic reservoir property representation and Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) for its robust data fitting and uncertainty quantification capability. WGAN-GP are trained to generate high-dimensional permeability fields from a low-dimensional latent space and ES-MDA then updates the latent variables by assimilating available measurements. Several subsurface site characterization examples including Gaussian, channelized, and fractured reservoirs are used to evaluate the accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed method and the main features of the unknown permeability fields are characterized accurately with reliable uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, the estimation performance is compared with a widely-used variational, i.e., optimization-based, inversion approach, and the proposed approach outperforms the variational inversion method in several benchmark cases. We explain such superior performance by visualizing the objective function in the latent space: because of nonlinear and aggressive dimension reduction via generative modeling, the objective function surface becomes extremely complex while the ensemble approximation can smooth out the multi-modal surface during the minimization. This suggests that the ensemble-based approach works well over the variational approach when combined with deep generative models at the cost of forward model runs unless convergence-ensuring modifications are implemented in the variational inversion.
Morris, Joseph P.; Pyrak-Nolte, Laura J.; Yoon, Hongkyu; Bobet, Antonio; Jiang, Liyang
In this article, We present results from a recent exercise where participating organizations were asked to provide model-based blind predictions of damage evolution in 3D-printed geomaterial analogue test articles. Participants were provided with a range of data characterizing both the undamaged state (e.g., ultrasonic measurements) and damage evolution (e.g., 3-point bending, unconfined compression, and Brazilian testing) of the material. In this paper, we focus on comparisons between the participants’ predictions and the previously secret challenge problem experimental observations. We present valuable lessons learned for the application of numerical methods to deformation and failure in brittle-ductile materials. The exercise also enables us to identify which specific types of calibration data were of most utility to the participants in developing their predictions. Further, we identify additional data that would have been useful for participants to improve the confidence of their predictions. Consequently, this work improves our understanding of how to better characterize a material to enable more accurate prediction of damage and failure propagation in natural and engineered brittle-ductile materials.
Kim, Iltai I.; Lie, Yang; Park, Jaesung; Kim, Hyun J.; Kim, Hong C.; Yoon, Hongkyu
We show that the reflection interference fringe (RIF) is formed on a screen far away from the microdroplets placed on a prism-based substrate, which have low contact angles and thin droplet heights, caused by the dual convex-concave profile of the droplet, not a pure convex profile. The geometric formulation shows that the interference fringes are caused by the optical path difference when the reflected rays from the upper convex profile at the droplet-air interface interfere with reflection from the lower concave profile at oblique angles lower than the critical angle. Analytic solutions are obtained for the droplet height and the contact angle out of the fringe number and the fringe radius in RIF from the geometric formulation. Furthermore, the ray tracing simulation is conducted using the custom-designed code. The geometric formulation and the ray tracing show excellent agreement with the experimental observation in the relation between the droplet height and the fringe number and the relation between the contact angle and the fringe radius. This study is remarkable as the droplet's dual profile cannot be easily observed with the existing techniques. However, the RIF technique can effectively verify the existence of a dual profile of the microdroplets in a simple setup. In this work, the RIF technique is successfully developed as a new optical diagnostic technique to determine the microdroplet features, such as the dual profile, the height, the contact angle, the inflection point, and the precursor film thickness, by simply measuring the RIF patterns on the far-field screen.
This study introduces the Progressive Improved Neural Operator (p-INO) framework, aimed at advancing machine-learning-based reduced-order models within geomechanics for underground resource optimization and carbon sequestration applications.The p-INO method transcends traditional transfer learning limitations through progressive learning, enhancing the capability of transferring knowledge from many sources.Through numerical experiments, the performance of p-INO is benchmarked against standard Improved Neural Operators (INO) in scenarios varying by data availability (different number of training samples).The research utilizes simulation data reflecting scenarios like single-phase, two-phase, and two-phase flow with mechanics inspired by the Illinois Basin Decatur Project.Results reveal that p-INO significantly surpasses conventional INO models in accuracy, particularly in data-constrained environments.Besides, adding more priori information (more trained models used by p-INO) can further enhance the process.This experiment demonstrates p-INO's robustness in leveraging sparse datasets for precise predictions across complex subsurface physics scenarios.The findings underscore the potential of p-INO to revolutionize predictive modeling in geomechanics, presenting a substantial improvement in computational efficiency and accuracy for large-scale subsurface simulations.
Characterizing the subsurface properties such as permeability and thermal conductivity is important for stimulation planning and heat production in enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Data assimilation methods, such as the Kalman-type methods, are widely used for characterization by assimilating observed dynamic data such as pressure and temperature. However, these approaches only perform well when the parameters follow a Gaussian distribution. The geothermal sites are usually highly heterogeneous with non-Gaussian distributed complex structures such as faults and fractures, which are difficult to characterize. Over the past few years, emerging deep generative models and their impressive applications in different tasks have provided a solution to produce images with complicated features. In this work, we use the Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (WGAN), a deep generative model, to generate fractured images from the low-dimensional and Gaussian distributed latent space. The ensemble method, a Kalman-type data assimilation method, is then applied to the latent variables to characterize the permeability fields of a fractured geothermal site using temperature data. A synthetic two-dimensional example is presented to show the performance of our approach.
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a vital role in addressing the challenges and limitations encountered in full-waveform inversion (FWI). Most UQ methods require parameter sampling which requires many forward and adjoint solves. This often results in very high computational overhead compared to traditional FWI, which hinders the practicality of the UQ for FWI. In this work, we develop an efficient UQ-FWI framework based on unsupervised variational autoencoder (VAE) to assess the uncertainty of single and multi-parameter FWI. The inversion operator is modeled using an encoder-decoder network. The input to the network is seismic shot gathers and the output are samples (distribution) of model parameters. We then use these samples to estimate the mean and standard deviation of each parameter population, which provide insights on the uncertainty in the inversion process. To speed up the UQ process, we carried out the reconstruction in an unsupervised learning approach. Moreover, we physics-constrained the network by injecting the FWI gradients during the backpropagation process, leading to better reconstruction. The computational cost of the proposed approach is comparable to the traditional autoencoder full-waveform inversion (AE-FWI), which is encouraging to be used to get further insight on the quality of the inversion. We apply this idea for synthetic data to show its potential in assessing uncertainty in multi-parameter FWI.
Induced seismicity is an inherent risk associated with geologic carbon storage (GCS) in deep rock formations that could contain undetected faults prone to failure. Modeling-based risk assessment has been implemented to quantify the potential of injection-induced seismicity, but typically simplified multiscale geologic features or neglected multiphysics coupled mechanisms because of the uncertainty in field data and computational cost of field-scale simulations, which may limit the reliable prediction of seismic hazard caused by industrial-scale CO2 storage. The degree of lateral continuity of the stratigraphic interbedding below the reservoir and depth-dependent fault permeability can enhance or inhibit pore-pressure diffusion and corresponding poroelastic stressing along a basement fault. This study presents a rigorous modeling scheme with optimal geological and operational parameters needed to be considered in seismic monitoring and mitigation strategies for safe GCS.
Laboratory shear tests were conducted on pulverized Sierra White granite (SWG) to investigate slip mechanisms in naturally occurring faults. Synthetic fault geometries were constructed by sandwiching fine grained SWG powder in between steel forcing blocks. For dry experiments, ~3.5 g of SWG powder was poured onto the face of the lower steel forcing block and leveled. For saturated experiments, enough fluid was added to the ~3.5 g of Sierra White granite powder to form a slurry. This slurry was applied to the lower forcing block and leveled. Inclined forcing blocks with 25.4 mm diameter and 35° faces, which were machined from ground steel rods with fine teeth on the faces, help to hold the gouge in place and prevent delamination at the interface. The top forcing block had a 2.03 mm centered hole to allow pore fluid access to the gouge. A fine steel mesh prevented back flow of the gouge into pore fluid lines. Samples were isolated from the confining medium using three layers of heat shrink polyolefin, as shown in Figure 1. The outer layer was shrunk over the o-rings on the end caps to form an impermeable seal, which was reinforced with steel tie wires on both sides of the o-rings. Hardened steel spacers and copper shim stock was placed between the steel forcing blocks and the end caps to preserve the parallelism of the Hastelloy wetted parts. For dry samples, the end caps were plugged, while the end caps for the saturated samples were connected to pore lines.
Polymer concrete (PC) has been used to replace cement concrete when harsh service conditions exist. Polymers have a high carbon footprint when considering their life cycle analysis, and with increased climate change concerns and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emission, bio-based polymers could be used as a sustainable alternative binder to produce PC. This paper examines the development and characterization of a novel bio-polymer concrete (BPC) using bio-based polyurethane used as the binder in lieu of cement, modified with benzoic acid and carboxyl-functionalized multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs). The mechanical performance, durability, microstructure, and chemical properties of BPC are investigated. Moreover, the effect of the addition of benzoic acid and MWCNTs on the properties of BPC is studied. The new BPC shows relatively low density, appreciable compressive strength between 20–30 MPa, good tensile strength of 4 MPa, and excellent durability resistance against aggressive environments. The new BPC has a low carbon footprint, 50% lower than ordinary Portland cement concrete, and can provide a sustainable concrete alternative in infrastructural applications.
This study presents a method for constructing machine learning-based reduced order models (ROMs) that accurately simulate nonlinear contact problems while quantifying epistemic uncertainty. These purely non-intrusive ROMs significantly lower computational costs compared to traditional full order models (FOMs). The technique utilizes adversarial training combined with an ensemble of Barlow twins reduced order models (BT-ROMs) to maximize the information content of the nonlinear reduced manifolds. These lower-dimensional manifolds are equipped with Gaussian error estimates, allowing for quantifying epistemic uncertainty in the ROM predictions. The effectiveness of these ROMs, referred to as UQ-BT-ROMs, is demonstrated in the context of contact between a rigid indenter and a hyperelastic substrate under finite deformations. The ensemble of BT-ROMs improves accuracy and computational efficiency compared to existing alternatives. The relative error between the UQ-BT-ROM and FOM solutions ranges from approximately 3% to 8% across all benchmarks. Remarkably, this high level of accuracy is achieved at a significantly reduced computational cost compared to FOMs. For instance, the online phase of the UQ-BT-ROM takes only 0.001 seconds, while a single FOM evaluation requires 63 seconds. Furthermore, the error estimate produced by the UQ-BT-ROMs reasonably captures the errors in the ROMs, with increasing accuracy as training data increases. The ensemble approach improves accuracy and computational efficiency compared to existing alternatives. The UQ-BT-ROMs provide a cost-effective solution with significantly reduced computational times while maintaining a high level of accuracy.
Bao, Jichao; Lee, Jonghyun; Yoon, Hongkyu; Pyrak-Nolte, Laura
Characterization of geologic heterogeneity at an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) is crucial for cost-effective stimulation planning and reliable heat production. With recent advances in computational power and sensor technology, large-scale fine-resolution simulations of coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) processes have been available. However, traditional large-scale inversion approaches have limited utility for sites with complex subsurface structures unless one can afford high, often computationally prohibitive, computations. Key computational burdens are predominantly associated with a number of large-scale coupled numerical simulations and large dense matrix multiplications derived from fine discretization of the field site domain and a large number of THM and chemical (THMC) measurements. In this work, we present deep-generative model-based Bayesian inversion methods for the computationally efficient and accurate characterization of EGS sites. Deep generative models are used to learn the approximate subsurface property (e.g., permeability, thermal conductivity, and elastic rock properties) distribution from multipoint geostatistics-derived training images or discrete fracture network models as a prior and accelerated stochastic inversion is performed on the low-dimensional latent space in a Bayesian framework. Numerical examples with synthetic permeability fields with fracture inclusions with THM data sets based on Utah FORGE geothermal site will be presented to test the accuracy, speed, and uncertainty quantification capability of our proposed joint data inversion method.
A natural clinoptilolite sample near the Nevada National Security Site was obtained to study adsorption and retardation on gas transport. Of interest is understanding the competition for adsorption sites that may reduce tracer gas adsorption relative to single-component measurements, which may be affected by the multi-scale pore structure of clinoptilolite. Clinoptilolite has three distinct domains of pore size distributions ranging from nanometers to micrometers: micropores with 0.4–0.7 nm diameters, measured on powders by CO2 adsorption at 273 K, representing the zeolite cages; mesopores with 4–200 nm diameters, observed using liquid nitrogen adsorption at 77 K; and macropores with 300–1000 nm diameters, measured by mercury injection on rock chips (~ 100 mesh), likely representing the microfractures. These pore size distributions are consistent with X-ray computed tomography (CT) and focused ion beam scanning electron microscope (FIB-SEM) images, which are used to construct the three-dimensional (3D) pore network to be used in future gas transport modeling. To quantify tracer gas adsorption in this multi-scale pore structure and multicomponent gas species environment, natural zeolite samples initially in equilibrium in air were exposed to a mixture of tracer gases. As the tracer gases diffuse and adsorb in the sample, the remaining tracer gases outside the sample fractionate. Using a quadrupole mass spectrometer to quantify this fractionation, the degree of adsorption of tracer gases in the multicomponent gas environment and multi-scale pore structure is assessed. The major finding is that Kr reaches equilibrium much faster than Xe in the presence of ambient air, which leads to more Kr uptake than Xe over limited exposure periods. When the clinoptilolite chips were exposed to humid air, the adsorption capability decreases significantly for both Xe and Kr with relative humidity (RH) as low as 3%. Both Xe and Kr reaches equilibrium faster at higher RH. The different, unexpected, adsorption behavior for Xe and Kr is due to their kinetic diameters similar to the micropores in clinoptilolite which makes it harder for Xe to access compared to Kr.
Migration of seismic events to deeper depths along basement faults over time has been observed in the wastewater injection sites, which can be correlated spatially and temporally to the propagation or retardation of pressure fronts and corresponding poroelastic response to given operation history. The seismicity rate model has been suggested as a physical indicator for the potential of earthquake nucleation along faults by quantifying poroelastic response to multiple well operations. Our field-scale model indicates that migrating patterns of 2015–2018 seismicity observed near Venus, TX are likely attributed to spatio-temporal evolution of Coulomb stressing rate constrained by the fault permeability. Even after reducing injection volumes since 2015, pore pressure continues to diffuse and steady transfer of elastic energy to the deep fault zone increases stressing rate consistently that can induce more frequent earthquakes at large distance scales. Sensitivity tests with variation in fault permeability show that (1) slow diffusion along a low-permeability fault limits earthquake nucleation near the injection interval or (2) rapid relaxation of pressure buildup within a high-permeability fault, caused by reducing injection volumes, may mitigate the seismic potential promptly.