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The heavy-duty vehicle future in the United States: A parametric analysis of technology and policy tradeoffs

Energy Policy

Askin, Amanda C.; Barter, Garrett B.; West, Todd H.; Manley, Dawn K.

We present a parametric analysis of factors that can influence advanced fuel and technology deployments in U.S. Class 7-8 trucks through 2050. The analysis focuses on the competition between traditional diesel trucks, natural gas vehicles (NGVs), and ultra-efficient powertrains. Underlying the study is a vehicle choice and stock model of the U.S. heavy-duty vehicle market. The model is segmented by vehicle class, body type, powertrain, fleet size, and operational type. We find that conventional diesel trucks will dominate the market through 2050, but NGVs could have significant market penetration depending on key technological and economic uncertainties. Compressed natural gas trucks conducting urban trips in fleets that can support private infrastructure are economically viable now and will continue to gain market share. Ultra-efficient diesel trucks, exemplified by the U.S. Department of Energy's SuperTruck program, are the preferred alternative in the long haul segment, but could compete with liquefied natural gas (LNG) trucks if the fuel price differential between LNG and diesel increases. However, the greatest impact in reducing petroleum consumption and pollutant emissions is had by investing in efficiency technologies that benefit all powertrains, especially the conventional diesels that comprise the majority of the stock, instead of incentivizing specific alternatives.

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TYPE Journal Article YEAR 2015
ScopusOSTIDOI

Heavy Duty Vehicle Futures Analysis

Askin, Amanda C.; Barter, Garrett B.; West, Todd H.; Manley, Dawn K.

This report describes work performed for an Early Career Research and Development project. This project developed a heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) sector model to assess the factors influencing alternative fuel and efficiency technology adoption. This model builds on a Sandia light duty vehicle sector model and provides a platform for assessing potential impacts of technological advancements developed at the Combustion Research Facility. Alternative fuel and technology adoption modeling is typically developed around a small set of scenarios. This HDV sector model segments the HDV sector and parameterizes input values, such as fuel prices, efficiencies, and vehicle costs. This parameterization enables sensitivity and trade space analyses to identify the inputs that are most associated with outputs of interest, such as diesel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Thus this analysis tool enables identification of the most significant HDV sector drivers that can be used to support energy security and climate change goals.

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TYPE SAND Report YEAR 2014
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System dynamics of the competition of municipal solid waste to landfill, electricity, and liquid fuel in California

Malczynski, Leonard A.; Manley, Dawn K.

A quantitative system dynamics model was created to evaluate the economic and environmental tradeoffs between biomass to electricity and to liquid fuel using MSW biomass in the state of California as a case study. From an environmental perspective, landfilling represents the worst use of MSW over time, generating more greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to converting MSW to liquid fuel or to electricity. MSW to ethanol results in the greatest displacement of GHG emissions per dollar spent compared to MSW to electricity. MSW to ethanol could save the state of California approximately $60 billion in energy costs by 2050 compared to landfilling, while also reducing GHG emissions state-wide by approximately 140 million metric tons during that timeframe. MSW conversion to electricity creates a significant cost within the state's electricity sector, although some conversion technologies are cost competitive with existing renewable generation.

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TYPE SAND Report YEAR 2014
OSTIDOI

What do greenhouse gas scenarios tell us?

21st World Petroleum Congress, WPC 2014

Manley, Dawn K.; Barter, Garrett B.; Askin, Amanda C.; Stephens, Thomas; Zhou, Yan; Ward, Jacob

In the coming decades, vehicle and fuel options and their supporting infrastructure must undergo significant transformations to achieve aggressive national targets for reducing petroleum consumption and lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Vehicle electrification, advanced biofuels, natural gas, and hydrogen fuel cells are among the promising technology options that are being explored as future alternatives. A number of recent U.S. studies have examined how a mix of technology and policy options can contribute to the aggressive goals of 50- 80% reduction in petroleum consumption and 80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050. These include reports issued by the National Petroleum Council, National Academies, and U.S. Department of Energy. While these studies all generally point to the need for a portfolio of technologies for the transportation sector, they do not draw the same set of conclusions for the portfolio mix. Moreover, they were commissioned for a variety of reasons, applied different modelling and analytical approaches in their assessments, and used a variety of assumptions in reaching their findings and recommendations. Using four recent major U. S. scenario analyses, this paper will illustrate several factors that can influence the interpretation of their results. Consideration of the underlying technology and policy assumptions, analytical approaches, and presentation of results can enable a more robust comparison across projections for the vehicle and fuel mix.

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TYPE Conference YEAR 2014
ScopusOSTI
Results 1–25 of 53
Results 1–25 of 53