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Strengthening the foundations of proliferation assessment tools

Saltiel, David H.; Rochau, Gary E.; Rexroth, Paul E.; Cleary, Virginia D.

Robust and reliable quantitative proliferation assessment tools have the potential to contribute significantly to a strengthened nonproliferation regime and to the future deployment of nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Efforts to quantify proliferation resistance have thus far met with limited success due to the inherent subjectivity of the problem and interdependencies between attributes that lead to proliferation resistance. We suggest that these limitations flow substantially from weaknesses in the foundations of existing methodologies--the initial data inputs. In most existing methodologies, little consideration has been given to the utilization of varying types of inputs--particularly the mixing of subjective and objective data--or to identifying, understanding, and untangling relationships and dependencies between inputs. To address these concerns, a model set of inputs is suggested that could potentially be employed in multiple approaches. We present an input classification scheme and the initial results of testing for relationships between these inputs. We will discuss how classifying and testing the relationship between these inputs can help strengthen tools to assess the proliferation risk of nuclear fuel cycle processes, systems, and facilities.

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TYPE SAND Report YEAR 2007
OSTIDOI

Strengthening the nuclear nonproliferation regime : focus on the civilian nuclear fuel cycle

Proposed for publication in the INMM Journal.

Pregenzer, Arian L.; Saltiel, David H.

Leaders around the world and across the ideological spectrum agree that the global nonproliferation regime is facing a serious test. The emergence of sophisticated terrorist networks, black markets in nuclear technology, and technological leaps associated with globalization have conspired to threaten one of the most successful examples of international cooperation in history. The rampant proliferation of nuclear weapons that was predicted at the start of the nuclear age has been largely held in check and the use of those weapons avoided. Nonetheless, with the thirty-fifth anniversary of the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the threat of nuclear proliferation seems more serious than ever. Although experts readily concede that there exist many pathways to proliferation, the threat posed by the misuse of the civilian nuclear fuel cycle has received considerable recent attention. While the connection between nuclear energy and nonproliferation has been a topic of discussion since the dawn of the nuclear age, world events have brought the issue to the forefront once again. United States President George W. Bush and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Mohammad ElBaradei are among those who have highlighted proliferation risks associated with civilian nuclear power programs and called for revitalizing the nuclear nonproliferation regime to address new threats. From the possibility of diversion or theft of nuclear material or technology, to the use of national civilian programs as a cover for weapons programs - what some have called latent proliferation - the fuel cycle appears to many to represent a glaring proliferation vulnerability. Just as recognition of these risks is not new, neither is recognition of the many positive benefits of nuclear energy. In fact, a renewed interest in exploiting these benefits has increased the urgency of addressing the risks. Global energy demand is expected to at least double by the middle of the century and could increase even more quickly. Much of the new demand will come from the rapidly expanding economies in China and India, but much of the developing world stands poised to follow the same path. This growth in demand is paralleled by concerns about global warming and the long-term reliability of carbon-based fuel supplies, concerns which expanded use of nuclear power can help to address. For these reasons and others, many countries in Asia have already clearly signaled that nuclear energy will play a key role for years to come. Numerous proposals have been made in the last two years for reducing the proliferation risk of the civilian nuclear fuel cycle. These range from a ban on export of enrichment and reprocessing technology to countries not already possessing operational capabilities to multinational management of the nuclear fuel cycle and strengthening existing monitoring and security mechanisms. The need for international willingness to enforce nonproliferation commitments and norms has also been emphasized. Some of these proposals could significantly impact the production of nuclear energy. Because the successful strengthening of the nonproliferation regime and the expansion of nuclear energy are so closely related, any successful approach to resolving these issues will require the creative input of experts from both the nuclear energy and nonproliferation communities. Against this backdrop, Sandia National Laboratories organized its 14th International Security Conference (ISC) around the theme: Strengthening the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime: Focus on the Civilian Nuclear Fuel Cycle. The goal of the conference was to begin a constructive dialogue between the nuclear energy and nuclear nonproliferation communities. The conference was held in Chantilly, Virginia, just outside Washington, D.C. on April 4-6, 2005, and was attended by approximately 125 participants from fifteen countries. The ISC agenda was structured to produce a systematic review of the connection between civilian nuclear energy programs and the proliferation of nuclear weapons and to identify constructive approaches to strengthen the nonproliferation regime. The conference began by reviewing the energy and security context that has, once again, raised the profile of this issue. A discussion of the risks associated with the civilian nuclear fuel cycle was then used to inform the analysis of several potential risk-management tools. The conference concluded by looking for lessons from the past as well as looking forward to future opportunities, with a particular focus on East Asia. In this paper we summarize the debates and ideas that emerged during the conference. Although we have drawn on material presented by speakers and comments made by participants, we do not quote or cite the specific contributions of individuals.

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TYPE Journal Article YEAR 2005
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27 Results