Publications

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ReNCAT is a software application that suggests microgrid portfolios that reduce the impact of large-scale disruptions to power, as measured by the Social Burden Metric. ReNCAT examines a power distribution network to identify regions that can be isolated into microgrids that enable critical services to be provided even if the remainder of the study area is left without power. ReNCAT operates on a simplified representation of the power grid, one that aggregates and approximates loads and conductors. Microgrids are formed within the power network by setting switch states to split or join portions of the grid. ReNCAT identifies candidate microgrid portfolios with varying tradeoffs between cost and service availability.

Social Infrastructure Service Burden (abbr. Social Burden) is defined as the burden to a population for attaining services needed from infrastructure. Infrastructure services represent opportunities to acquire things that people need, such as food, water, healthcare, financial services, etc. Accessing services requires effort, disruption to schedules, expenditure of money, etc. Social Burden represents the relative hardship people experience in the process of acquiring needed services. Social Burden is comprised of several components. One component is the effort associated with travel to a facility that provides a needed service. Another component of burden is the financial impact of acquiring resources once at the providing location. We are applying Social Burden as a resilience metric by quantifying it following a major disruption to infrastructure. Specifically, we are most interested in quantifying this metric for events in which energy systems are a major component of the disruption. We do not believe this is the only such use of the Social Burden metric, and therefore we will also be exploring its use to describe blue-sky conditions of a society in the future. Furthermore, while the construct can be applied to a dynamically changing situation, we are applying it statically, directly following a disruption. This notably ignores recovery dynamics that are a key capability of resilient systems. This too will be explored in future research.

Subsurface energy activities such as unconventional resource recovery, enhanced geothermal energy systems, and geologic carbon storage require fast and reliable methods to account for complex, multiphysical processes in heterogeneous fractured and porous media. Although reservoir simulation is considered the industry standard for simulating these subsurface systems with injection and/or extraction operations, reservoir simulation requires spatio-temporal “Big Data” into the simulation model, which is typically a major challenge during model development and computational phase. In this work, we developed and applied various deep neural network-based approaches to (1) process multiscale image segmentation, (2) generate ensemble members of drainage networks, flow channels, and porous media using deep convolutional generative adversarial network, (3) construct multiple hybrid neural networks such as convolutional LSTM and convolutional neural network-LSTM to develop fast and accurate reduced order models for shale gas extraction, and (4) physics-informed neural network and deep Q-learning for flow and energy production. We hypothesized that physicsbased machine learning/deep learning can overcome the shortcomings of traditional machine learning methods where data-driven models have faltered beyond the data and physical conditions used for training and validation. We improved and developed novel approaches to demonstrate that physics-based ML can allow us to incorporate physical constraints (e.g., scientific domain knowledge) into ML framework. Outcomes of this project will be readily applicable for many energy and national security problems that are particularly defined by multiscale features and network systems.

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Estimation of permeability in porous media is fundamental to understanding coupled multi-physics processes critical to various geoscience and environmental applications. Recent emerging machine learning methods with physics-based constraints and/or physical properties can provide a new means to improve computational efficiency while improving machine learning-based prediction by accounting for physical information during training. Here we first used three-dimensional (3D) real rock images to estimate permeability of fractured and porous media using 3D convolutional neural networks (CNNs) coupled with physics-informed pore topology characteristics (e.g., porosity, surface area, connectivity) during the training stage. Training data of permeability were generated using lattice Boltzmann simulations of segmented real rock 3D images. Our preliminary results show that neural network architecture and usage of physical properties strongly impact the accuracy of permeability predictions. In the future we can adjust our methodology to other rock types by choosing the appropriate architecture and proper physical properties, and optimizing the hyperparameters.

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Permeability prediction of porous media system is very important in many engineering and science domains including earth materials, bio-, solid-materials, and energy applications. In this work we evaluated how machine learning can be used to predict the permeability of porous media with physical properties. An emerging challenge for machine learning/deep learning in engineering and scientific research is the ability to incorporate physics into machine learning process. We used convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to train a set of image data of bead packing and additional physical properties such as porosity and surface area of porous media are used as training data either by feeding them to the fully connected network directly or through the multilayer perception network. Our results clearly show that the optimal neural network architecture and implementation of physics-informed constraints are important to properly improve the model prediction of permeability. A comprehensive analysis of hyperparameters with different CNN architectures and the data implementation scheme of the physical properties need to be performed to optimize our learning system for various porous media system.

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This project explored coupling modeling and analysis methods from multiple domains to address complex hybrid (cyber and physical) attacks on mission critical infrastructure. Robust methods to integrate these complex systems are necessary to enable large trade-space exploration including dynamic and evolving cyber threats and mitigations. Reinforcement learning employing deep neural networks, as in the AlphaGo Zero solution, was used to identify "best" (or approximately optimal) resilience strategies for operation of a cyber/physical grid model. A prototype platform was developed and the machine learning (ML) algorithm was made to play itself in a game of 'Hurt the Grid'. This proof of concept shows that machine learning optimization can help us understand and control complex, multi-dimensional grid space. A simple, yet high-fidelity model proves that the data have spatial correlation which is necessary for any optimization or control. Our prototype analysis showed that the reinforcement learning successfully improved adversary and defender knowledge to manipulate the grid. When expanded to more representative models, this exact type of machine learning will inform grid operations and defense - supporting mitigation development to defend the grid from complex cyber attacks! This same research can be expanded to similar complex domains.

Schedule Management Optimization (SMO) is a tool for automatically generating a schedule of project tasks. Project scheduling is traditionally achieved with the use of commercial project management software or case-specific optimization formulations. Commercial software packages are useful tools for managing and visualizing copious amounts of project task data. However, their ability to automatically generate optimized schedules is limited. Furthermore, there are many real-world constraints and decision variables that commercial packages ignore. Case-specific optimization formulations effectively identify schedules that optimize one or more objectives for a specific problem, but they are unable to handle a diverse selection of scheduling problems. SMO enables practitioners to generate optimal project schedules automatically while considering a broad range of real-world problem characteristics. SMO has been designed to handle some of the most difficult scheduling problems -- those with resource constraints, multiple objectives, multiple inventories, and diverse ways of performing tasks. This report contains descriptions of the SMO modeling concepts and explains how they map to real-world scheduling considerations.

To help effectively plan the management and modernization of their large and diverse fleets of vehicles, the Program Executive Office Ground Combat Systems (PEO GCS) and the Program Executive Office Combat Support and Combat Service Support (PEO CS &CSS) commissioned the development of a large - scale portfolio planning optimization tool. This software, the Capability Portfolio Analysis Tool (CPAT), creates a detailed schedule that optimally prioritizes the modernization or replacement of vehicles within the fleet - respecting numerous business rules associated with fleet structure, budgets, industrial base, research and testing, etc., while maximizing overall fleet performance through time. This report contains a description of the organizational fleet structure and a thorough explanation of the business rules that the CPAT formulation follows involving performance, scheduling, production, and budgets. This report, which is an update to the original CPAT domain model published in 2015 (SAND2015 - 4009), covers important new CPAT features. This page intentionally left blank

In order to effectively plan the management and modernization of their large and diverse fleets of vehicles, Program Executive Office Ground Combat Systems (PEO GCS) and Program Executive Office Combat Support and Combat Service Support (PEO CS&CSS) commis- sioned the development of a large-scale portfolio planning optimization tool. This software, the Capability Portfolio Analysis Tool (CPAT), creates a detailed schedule that optimally prioritizes the modernization or replacement of vehicles within the fleet - respecting numerous business rules associated with fleet structure, budgets, industrial base, research and testing, etc., while maximizing overall fleet performance through time. This paper contains a thor- ough documentation of the terminology, parameters, variables, and constraints that comprise the fleet management mixed integer linear programming (MILP) mathematical formulation. This paper, which is an update to the original CPAT formulation document published in 2015 (SAND2015-3487), covers the formulation of important new CPAT features.

Recent budget reductions have posed tremendous challenges to the U.S. Army in managing its portfolio of ground combat systems (tanks and other fighting vehicles), thus placing many important programs at risk. To address these challenges, the Army and a supporting team developed and applied the Capability Portfolio Analysis Tool (CPAT) to optimally invest in ground combat modernization over the next 25-35 years. CPAT provides the Army with the analytical rigor needed to help senior Army decision makers allocate scarce modernization dollars to protect soldiers and maintain capability overmatch. CPAT delivers unparalleled insight into multiple-decade modernization planning using a novel multiphase mixed-integer linear programming technique and illustrates a cultural shift toward analytics in the Army's acquisition thinking and processes. CPAT analysis helped shape decisions to continue modernization of the $10 billion Stryker family of vehicles (originally slated for cancellation) and to strategically reallocate over $20 billion to existing modernization programs by not pursuing the Ground Combat Vehicle program as originally envisioned. More than 40 studies have been completed using CPAT, applying operations research methods to optimally prioritize billions of taxpayer dollars and allowing Army acquisition executives to base investment decisions on analytically rigorous evaluations of portfolio trade-offs.

In order to effectively plan the management and modernization of its large and diverse fleet of vehicles, the Program Executive Office Ground Combat Systems (PEO GCS) commissioned the development of a large-scale portfolio planning optimization tool. This software, the Capability Portfolio Analysis Tool (CPAT), creates a detailed schedule that optimally prioritizes the modernization or replacement of vehicles within the fleet - respecting numerous business rules associated with fleet structure, budgets, industrial base, research and testing, etc., while maximizing overall fleet performance through time. This paper contains a thorough documentation of the terminology, parameters, variables, and constraints that comprise the fleet management mixed integer linear programming (MILP) mathematical formulation.

To help effectively plan the management and modernization of its large and diverse fleet of vehicles, the Program Executive Office Ground Combat Systems (PEO GCS) commissioned the development of a large-scale portfolio planning optimization tool. This software, the Capability Portfolio Analysis Tool (CPAT), creates a detailed schedule that optimally prioritizes the modernization or replacement of vehicles within the fleet - respecting numerous business rules associated with fleet structure, budgets, industrial base, research and testing, etc., while maximizing overall fleet performance through time. This report contains a description of the organizational fleet structure and a thorough explanation of the business rules that the CPAT formulation follows involving performance, scheduling, production, and budgets. iii This page intentionally left blank iv

Our society is increasingly reliant on systems and interoperating collections of systems, known as systems of systems (SoS). These SoS are often subject to changing missions (e.g., nation- building, arms-control treaties), threats (e.g., asymmetric warfare, terrorism), natural environments (e.g., climate, weather, natural disasters) and budgets. How well can SoS adapt to these types of dynamic conditions? This report details the results of a three year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project aimed at developing metrics and methodologies for quantifying the adaptability of systems and SoS. Work products include: derivation of a set of adaptability metrics, a method for combining the metrics into a system of systems adaptability index (SoSAI) used to compare adaptability of SoS designs, development of a prototype dynamic SoS (proto-dSoS) simulation environment which provides the ability to investigate the validity of the adaptability metric set, and two test cases that evaluate the usefulness of a subset of the adaptability metrics and SoSAI for distinguishing good from poor adaptability in a SoS. Intellectual property results include three patents pending: A Method For Quantifying Relative System Adaptability, Method for Evaluating System Performance, and A Method for Determining Systems Re-Tasking.

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This paper describes a distributed-memory, embarrassingly parallel hexahedral mesh generator, pCAMAL (parallel CUBIT Adaptive Mesh Algorithm Library). pCAMAL utilizes the sweeping method following a serial step of geometry decomposition conducted in the CUBIT geometry preparation and mesh generation tool. The utility of pCAMAL in generating large meshes is illustrated, and linear speed-up under load-balanced conditions is demonstrated.

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