Widespread integration of social media into daily life has fundamentally changed the way society communicates, and, as a result, how individuals develop attitudes, personal philosophies, and worldviews. The excess spread of disinformation and misinformation due to this increased connectedness and streamlined communication has been extensively studied, simulated, and modeled. Less studied is the interaction of many pieces of misinformation, and the resulting formation of attitudes. We develop a framework for the simulation of attitude formation based on exposure to multiple cognitions. We allow a set of cognitions with some implicit relational topology to spread on a social network, which is defined with separate layers to specify online and offline relationships. An individual’s opinion on each cognition is determined by a process inspired by the Ising model for ferromagnetism. We conduct experimentation using this framework to test the effect of topology, connectedness, and social media adoption on the ultimate prevalence of and exposure to certain attitudes.
This research explores novel methods for extracting relevant information from EEG data to characterize individual differences in cognitive processing. Our approach combines expertise in machine learning, statistics, and cognitive science, advancing the state-of-the art in all three domains. Specifically, by using cognitive science expertise to interpret results and inform algorithm development, we have developed a generalizable and interpretable machine learning method that can accurately predict individual differences in cognition. The output of the machine learning method revealed surprising features of the EEG data that, when interpreted by the cognitive science experts, provided novel insights to the underlying cognitive task. Additionally, the outputs of the statistical methods show promise as a principled approach to quickly find regions within the EEG data where individual differences lie, thereby supporting cognitive science analysis and informing machine learning models. This work lays methodological ground work for applying the large body of cognitive science literature on individual differences to high consequence mission applications.
The research team developed models of Attentional Control (AC) that are unique to existing modeling approaches in the literature. The goal was to enable the research team to (1) make predictions about AC and human performance in real-world scenarios and (2) to make predictions about individual characteristics based on human data. First, the team developed a proof-of-concept approach for representing an experimental design and human subjects data in a Bayesian model, then demonstrated an ability to draw inferences about conditions of interest relevant to real-world scenarios. Ultimately, this effort was successful, and we were able to make reasonable (meaning supported by behavioral data) inferences about conditions of interest to develop a risk model for AC (where risk is defined as a mismatch between AC and attentional demand). The team additionally defined a path forward for a human-constrained machine learning (HCML) approach to make predictions about an individual's state based on performance data. The effort represents a successful first step in both modeling efforts and serves as a basis for future work activities. Numerous opportunities for future work have been defined.
In this project, our goal was to develop methods that would allow us to make accurate predictions about individual differences in human cognition. Understanding such differences is important for maximizing human and human-system performance. There is a large body of research on individual differences in the academic literature. Unfortunately, it is often difficult to connect this literature to applied problems, where we must predict how specific people will perform or process information. In an effort to bridge this gap, we set out to answer the question: can we train a model to make predictions about which people understand which languages? We chose language processing as our domain of interest because of the well- characterized differences in neural processing that occur when people are presented with linguistic stimuli that they do or do not understand. Although our original plan to conduct several electroencephalography (EEG) studies was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, we were able to collect data from one EEG study and a series of behavioral experiments in which data were collected online. The results of this project indicate that machine learning tools can make reasonably accurate predictions about an individual?s proficiency in different languages, using EEG data or behavioral data alone.
Within the past half-decade, it has become overwhelmingly clear that suppressing the spread of deliberate false and misleading information is of the utmost importance for protecting democratic institutions. Disinformation has been found to come from both foreign and domestic actors, but the effects from either can be disastrous. From the simple encouragement of unwarranted distrust to conspiracy theories promoting violence, the results of disinformation have put the functionality of American democracy under direct threat. Present scientific challenges posed by this problem include detecting disinformation, quantifying its potential impact, and preventing its amplification. We present a model on which we can experiment with possible strategies toward the third challenge: the prevention of amplification. This is a social contagion network model, which is decomposed into layers to represent physical, ''offline'', interactions as well as virtual interactions on a social media platform. Along with the topological modifications to the standard contagion model, we use state-transition rules designed specifically for disinformation, and distinguish between contagious and non-contagious infected nodes. We use this framework to explore the effect of grassroots social movements on the size of disinformation cascades by simulating these cascades in scenarios where a proportion of the agents remove themselves from the social platform. We also test the efficacy of strategies that could be implemented at the administrative level by the online platform to minimize such spread. These top-down strategies include banning agents who disseminate false information, or providing corrective information to individuals exposed to false information to decrease their probability of believing it. We find an abrupt transition to smaller cascades when a critical number of random agents are removed from the platform, as well as steady decreases in the size of cascades with increasingly more convincing corrective information. Finally, we compare simulated cascades on this framework with real cascades of disinformation recorded on Whatsapp surrounding the 2019 Indian election. We find a set of hyperparameter values that produces a distribution of cascades matching the scaling exponent of the distribution of actual cascades recorded in the dataset. We acknowledge the available future directions for improving the performance of the framework and validation methods, as well as ways to extend the model to capture additional features of social contagion.
To date, disinformation research has focused largely on the production of false information ignoring the suppression of select information. We term this alternative form of disinformation information suppression. Information suppression occurs when facts are withheld with the intent to mislead. In order to detect information suppression, we focus on understanding the actors who withhold information. In this research, we use knowledge of human behavior to find signatures of different gatekeeping behaviors found in text. Specifically, we build a model to classify the different types of edits on Wikipedia using the added text alone and compare a human-informed feature engineering approach to a featureless algorithm. Being able to computationally distinguish gatekeeping behaviors is a first step towards identifying when information suppression is occurring.
Studies of bilingual language processing typically assign participants to groups based on their language proficiency and average across participants in order to compare the two groups. This approach loses much of the nuance and individual differences that could be important for furthering theories of bilingual language comprehension. In this study, we present a novel use of machine learning (ML) to develop a predictive model of language proficiency based on behavioral data collected in a priming task. The model achieved 75% accuracy in predicting which participants were proficient in both Spanish and English. Our results indicate that ML can be a useful tool for characterizing and studying individual differences.
We present a general machine learning algorithm for boundary detection within general signals based on an efficient, accurate, and robust approximation of the universal normalized information distance. Our approach uses an adaptive sliding information distance (SLID) combined with a wavelet-based approach for peak identification to locate the boundaries. Special emphasis is placed on developing an adaptive formulation of SLID to handle general signals with multiple unknown and/or drifting section lengths. Although specialized algorithms may outperform SLID when domain knowledge is available, these algorithms are limited to specific applications and do not generalize. SLID excels in these cases. We demonstrate the versatility and efficacy of SLID on a variety of signal types, including synthetically generated sequences of tokens, binary executables for reverse engineering applications, and time series of seismic events.
The cybersecurity research community has focused primarily on the analysis and automation of intrusion detection systems by examining network traffic behaviors. Expanding on this expertise, advanced cyber defense analysis is turning to host-based data to use in research and development to produce the next generation network defense tools. The ability to perform deep packet inspection of network traffic is increasingly harder with most boundary network traffic moving to HTTPS. Additionally, network data alone does not provide a full picture of end-to-end activity. These are some of the reasons that necessitate looking at other data sources such as host data. We outline our investigation into the processing, formatting, and storing of the data along with the preliminary results from our exploratory data analysis. In writing this report, it is our goal to aid in guiding future research by providing foundational understanding for an area of cybersecurity that is rich with a variety of complex, categorical, and sparse data, with a strong human influence component. Including suggestions for guiding potential directions for future research.
The flexibility of network communication within Internet protocols is fundamental to network function, yet this same flexibility permits the possibility of malicious use. In particular, malicious behavior can masquerade as benign traffic, thus evading systems designed to catch misuse of network resources. However, perfect imitation of benign traffic is difficult, meaning that small unintentional deviations from normal can occur. Identifying these deviations requires that the defenders know what features reveal malicious behavior. Herein, we present an application of compression-based analytics to network communication that can reduce the need for defenders to know a priori what features they need to examine. Motivating the approach is the idea that compression relies on the ability to discover and make use of predictable elements in information, thereby highlighting any deviations between expected and received content. We introduce a so-called 'slice compression' score to identify malicious or anomalous communication in two ways. First, we apply normalized compression distances to classification problems and discuss methods for reducing the noise by excising application content (as opposed to protocol features) using slice compression. Second, we present a new technique for anomaly detection, referred to as slice compression for anomaly detection. A diverse collection of datasets are analyzed to illustrate the efficacy of the proposed approaches. While our focus is network communication, other types of data are also considered to illustrate the generality of the method.
We present a new method for boundary detection within sequential data using compression-based analytics. Our approach is to approximate the information distance between two adjacent sliding windows within the sequence. Large values in the distance metric are indicative of boundary locations. A new algorithm is developed, referred to as sliding information distance (SLID), that provides a fast, accurate, and robust approximation to the normalized information distance. A modified smoothed z-score algorithm is used to locate peaks in the distance metric, indicating boundary locations. A variety of data sources are considered, including text and audio, to demonstrate the efficacy of our approach.
The formation and closure of aqueous pores in lipid bilayers is a key step in various biophysical processes. Large pores are well described by classical nucleation theory, but the free-energy landscape of small, biologically relevant pores has remained largely unexplored. The existence of small and metastable "prepores" was hypothesized decades ago from electroporation experiments, but resolving metastable prepores from theoretical models remained challenging. Using two complementary methods - atomistic simulations and self-consistent field theory of a minimal lipid model - we determine the parameters for which metastable prepores occur in lipid membranes. Both methods consistently suggest that pore metastability depends on the relative volume ratio between the lipid head group and lipid tails: lipids with a larger head-group volume fraction (or shorter saturated tails) form metastable prepores, whereas lipids with a smaller head-group volume fraction (or longer unsaturated tails) form unstable prepores.
Thousands of facilities worldwide are engaged in biological research activities. One of DTRA's missions is to fully understand the types of facilities involved in collecting, investigating, and storing biological materials. This characterization enables DTRA to increase situational awareness and identify potential partners focused on biodefense and biosecurity. As a result of this mission, DTRA created a database to identify biological facilities from publicly available, open-source information. This paper describes an on-going effort to automate data collection and entry of facilities into this database. To frame our analysis more concretely, we consider the following motivating question: How would a decision maker respond to a pathogen outbreak during the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea? To address this question, we aim to further characterize the existing South Korean facilities in DTRA's database, and to identify new candidate facilities for entry, so that decision makers can identify local facilities properly equipped to assist and respond to an event. We employ text and social analytics on bibliometric data from South Korean facilities and a list of select pathogen agents to identify patterns and relationships within scientific publication graphs.
On August 15, 2016, Sandia hosted a visit by Professor Venkatesh Narayanamurti. Prof Narayanamurti (Benjamin Peirce Research Professor of Technology and Public Policy at Harvard, Board Member of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, former Dean of the School of Engineering and Applied Science at Harvard, former Dean of Engineering at UC Santa Barbara, and former Vice President of Division 1000 at Sandia). During the visit, a small, informal, all-day idea exploration session on "Towards an Engineering and Applied Science of Research" was conducted. This document is a brief synopsis or "footprint" of the presentations and discussions at this Idea Exploration Session. The intent of this document is to stimulate further discussion about pathways Sandia can take to improve its Research practices.
We perform molecular dynamics simulations of a coarse-grained model of ionomer melts in an applied oscillating electric field. The frequency-dependent conductivity and susceptibility are calculated directly from the current density and polarization density, respectively. At high frequencies, we find a peak in the real part of the conductivity due to plasma oscillations of the ions. At lower frequencies, the dynamic response of the ionomers depends on the ionic aggregate morphology in the system, which consists of either percolated or isolated aggregates. We show that the dynamic response of the model ionomers to the applied oscillating field can be understood by comparison with relevant time scales in the systems, obtained from independent calculations.