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Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM+) Version 5.0 Technical Reference Manual

Ehrhart, Brian D.; Hecht, Ethan S.

The HyRAM+ software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen, natural gas, and autogas systems. HyRAM+ is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM+ integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying leak sizes and rates, predicting physical effects, characterizing hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from delayed ignition), and assessing impacts on people. HyRAM+ is developed at Sandia National Laboratories to support the development and revision of national and international codes and standards, and to provide developed models in a publicly-accessible toolkit usable by all stakeholders. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM+ version 5.0. The most significant change for HyRAM+ version 5.0 from HyRAM+ version 4.1 is the ability to model blends of different fuels. HyRAM+ was previously only suitable for use with hydrogen, methane, or propane, with users having the ability to use methane as a proxy for natural gas and propane as a proxy for autogas/liquefied petroleum gas. In version 5.0, real natural gas or autogas compositions can be modeled as the fuel, or even blends of natural gas with hydrogen. These blends can be used in the standalone physics models, but not yet in the quantitative risk assessment mode of HyRAM+.

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Compressed Natural Gas Component Leak Frequency Estimation

Brooks, Dusty M.; Glover, Austin M.; Ehrhart, Brian D.

The frequency of unintended releases in a compressed natural gas system is an important aspect of the system quantitative risk assessment. The frequencies for possible release scenarios, along with engineering models, are utilized to quantify the risks for compressed natural gas facilities. This report documents component leakage frequencies representative of compressed natural gas components that were estimated as a function of the normalized leak size. A Bayesian statistical method was used which results in leak frequency distributions for each component which represent variation and uncertainty in the leak frequency. The analysis shows that there is high uncertainty in the estimated leak frequencies due to sparsity in compressed natural gas data. These leak frequencies may still be useful in compressed natural gas system risk assessments, as long as this high uncertainty is acknowledged and considered appropriately.

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Liquid Hydrogen Heavy-Duty Vehicle Safety Review and Refueling Facility Design

Baird, Austin R.; Hecht, Ethan S.; Ehrhart, Brian D.; Muna, Alice B.

Liquid hydrogen (LH2) used as a fuel onboard a heavy-duty vehicle can result in increased storage capacity and faster refueling relative to compressed gas. However, there are concerns about hydrogen losses from boil-off, potential safety issues, gaps in codes and standards for cryogenic hydrogen fuel, and technical challenges with LH2 systems for widespread transportation applications. A failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), a safety codes and standards review, and a design review of the onboard liquid hydrogen system for a heavy-duty vehicle identified some of these potential safety issues and gaps in the codes and standards. The FMEA identified some medium and low risk failure points of the conceptual design, and the design review identified how carefully pressure relief needs to be considered for LH2 systems. In addition, a conceptual design for a LH2 refueling station was developed. Rough capital costs for the refueling station design were $\$1 million$ and the layout occupied approximately 13,000 ft2. These results can be used to inform future designs and analyses for LH2 heavy-duty vehicles.

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Report on General Hydrogen Safety

Glover, Austin M.; LaFleur, Chris B.; Ehrhart, Brian D.

Hydrogen is an important resource for many different industries throughout the world, including refining, manufacturing, and as a direct energy source. Hydrogen production, through methods such as steam methane reforming, has been developed over several decades. There is a large global demand for hydrogen from these industries and safe production and distribution are paramount for hydrogen systems. Codes and standards have been developed to reduce the risk associated with hydrogen accidents to the public. These codes and standards are similar to those in other industries in which there is inherent risk to the public, such as gasoline and natural gas production and distribution. Although there will always be a risk to the public in these types of fuels, the codes and standards are developed to reduce the likelihood of an accident occurring and reduce the severity of impact, should one occur. This report reviews the current state of hydrogen in the United States and outlines the codes and standards that ensure safe operation of hydrogen systems. The total hydrogen demand and use in different industries is identified. Additionally, the current landscape of hydrogen production and fueling stations in the United States is outlined. The safety of hydrogen systems is discussed through an overview of the purpose, methods, and content included in codes and standards. As outlined in this safety overview, the risk to the public in operation of hydrogen generation facilities and fueling stations is reduced through implementation of appropriate measures. Codes, such as NFPA 2, ensure that the risk associated with a hydrogen system is no greater than the risk presented by gasoline refueling stations.

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Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM+) Version 4.1 Technical Reference Manual

Ehrhart, Brian D.; Hecht, Ethan S.

The HyRAM+ software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen, methane, and propane systems. HyRAM+ is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM+ integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, characterizing hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from delayed ignition), and assessing impacts on people. HyRAM+ is developed at Sandia National Laboratories to support the development and revision of national and international codes and standards, and to provide developed models in a publicly-accessible toolkit usable by all stakeholders. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM+ version 4.1. The two most significant changes for HyRAM+ version 4.1 from HyRAM+ version 4.0 are direct incorporation of unconfined overpressure into the QRA calculations and modification of the models for cryogenic liquid flow through an orifice. In QRA mode, the user no longer needs to input peak overpressure and impulse values that were calculated separately; rather, the unconfined overpressure is estimated for the given system inputs, leak size, and occupant location. The orifice flow model now solves for the maximum mass flux through the orifice at constant entropy while conserving energy, which does not require a direct speed of sound calculation. This does not affect the mass flow for all-gaseous releases; the method results in the same speed of sound for choked flow. However, this method does result in a higher (and more realistic) mass flow rate for a given leak size for liquid releases than was previously calculated.

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Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM+) (Technical Reference Manual V.4)

Hecht, Ethan S.; Ehrhart, Brian D.

The HyRAM+ software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen, methane, and propane infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM+ is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art science and engineering models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM+ includes generic probabilities for equipment failures, probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, and experimentally validated first-order models of release and flame physics. HyRAM+ integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from delayed ignition), and assessing impact on people and structures. HyRAM+ is developed at Sandia National Laboratories to support the development and revision of national and international codes and standards. HyRAM+ is a research software in active development and thus the models and data may change. This report will be updated at appropriate developmental intervals. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM+ version 4.0. The most significant change for HyRAM+ version 4.0 from HyRAM version 3.1 is the incorporation of other alternative fuels, namely methane (as a proxy for natural gas) and propane into the toolkit. This change necessitated significant changes to the installable graphical user interface as well as changes to the back-end Python models. A second major change is the inclusion of physics models for the overpressure associated with the delayed ignition of an unconfined jet/plume of flammable gas.

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Benchmark Comparison of HyRAM and ALDEA Software for Hydrogen Release Behavior

Glover, Austin M.; Ehrhart, Brian D.; Muna, Alice B.; Hecht, Ethan S.; Bernard, Laurence B.; Houssin, Deborah H.; Jallais, Simon J.; Vyazmina, Elena V.

There are several different calculation approaches and tools that can be used to evaluate the risk of hydrogen energy applications. A comparative study of Air Liquide’s ALDEA (Air Liquide Dispersion and Explosion Assessment) tools suite and Sandia’s HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) toolkit has been conducted. The purpose of this study was to understand and evaluate the differences between the two calculation approaches, and identify areas for model improvements. There were several scenarios examined in this effort regarding hydrogen release dynamics. These scenarios include free jet release cases at varying pressures, vessel blowdown, and hydrogen build-up scenarios with and without ventilation. For each scenario, the input and output of the HyRAM calculations are documented, along with a comparison to the ALDEA results. Generally, the results from the two different tools were reasonably aligned. However, there were fundamental differences in evaluation methodology and functional limitations in HyRAM that caused discrepancies in some calculations.

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Refueling Infrastructure Scoping and Feasibility Assessment for Hydrogen Rail Applications

Ehrhart, Brian D.; Bran Anleu, Gabriela A.; Mohmand, Jamal A.; Baird, Austin R.; Klebanoff, Leonard E.

The feasibility and component cost of hydrogen rail refueling infrastructure is examined. Example reference stations can inform future studies on components and systems specifically for hydrogen rail refueling facilities. All of the 5 designs considered assumed the bulk storage of liquid hydrogen on-site, from which either gaseous or liquid hydrogen would be dispensed. The first design was estimated to refuel 10 multiple unit trains per day, each train containing 260 kg of gaseous hydrogen at 350 bar on-board. The second base design targeted the refueling of 50 passenger locomotives, each with 400 kg of gaseous hydrogen on-board at 350 bar. Variations from this basic design were made to consider the effect of two different filling times, two different hydrogen compression methods, and two different station design approaches. For each design variation, components were sized, approximate costs were estimated for major components, and physical layouts were created. For both gaseous hydrogen-dispensing base designs, the design of direct-fill using a cryopump design was the lowest cost due to the high cost of the cascade storage system and gas compressor. The last three base designs all assumed that liquid hydrogen was dispensed into tender cars for freight locomotives that required 7,500 kg of liquid hydrogen, and the three different designs assumed that 5, 50, or 200 tender cars were refueled every day. The total component costs are very different for each design, because each design has a very different dispensing capacity. The total component cost for these three designs are driven by the cost of the liquid hydrogen tank; additionally, delivering that much liquid hydrogen to the refueling facility may not be practical. Many of the designs needed the use of multiple evaporators, compressors, and cryopumps operating in parallel to meet required flow rates. In the future, the components identified here can be improved and scaled-up to better fit the needs of heavy-duty refueling facilities. This study provides basic feasibility and first-order design guidance for hydrogen refueling facilities serving emerging rail applications.

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Review of Release Behavior of Hydrogen & Natural Gas Blends from Pipelines

Baird, Austin R.; Glover, Austin M.; Ehrhart, Brian D.

Hydrogen can be used to reduce carbon emissions by blending into other gaseous energy carriers, such as natural gas. However, hydrogen blending into natural gas has important implications for safety which need to be evaluated. Hydrogen has different physical properties than natural gas, and these properties affect safety evaluations concerning a leak of the blended gas. The intent of this report is to begin to investigate the safety implications of blending hydrogen into the natural gas infrastructure with respect to a leak event from a pipeline. A literature review was conducted to identify existing data that will better inform future hazard and risk assessments for hydrogen/natural gas blends. Metrics with safety implications such as heat flux and dispersion behavior may be affected by the overall blend ratio of the mixture. Of the literature reviewed, there was no directly observed separation of the hydrogen from the natural gas or methane blend. No literature was identified that experimentally examined unconfined releases such as concentration fields or concentration at specific distances. Computational efforts have predicted concentration fields by modified versions of existing engineering models, but the validation of these models is limited by the unavailability of literature data. There are multiple literature sources that measured flame lengths and heat flux values, which are both relevant metrics to risk and hazard assessments. These data can be more directly compared to the outputs of existing engineering models for validation.

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Validation and Comparison of HyRAM Physics Models

Ehrhart, Brian D.; Hecht, Ethan S.; Mohmand, Jamal A.

The Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM) software version 3 uses a real gas equation of state rather than the Abel-Noble equation of state that is used in 2.0 and previous versions. This change enables the use of HyRAM 3 for cryogenic hydrogen flows, whereas the Abel-Noble equation of state is not accurate at low temperatures. HyRAM 3.1 results were compared to experimental data from the literature in order to demonstrate the accuracy of the physics models. HyRAM 3.1 results were also compared to HyRAM 2.0 for high-pressure, non-cryogenic flows to highlight the differences in predictions between the two major versions of HyRAM. Validation data sets are from multiple groups and span the range of HyRAM physics models, including tank blowdown, unignited dispersion jet plume, ignited jet flame, and accumulation and overpressure inside an enclosure. Both versions 2.0 and 3.1 of HyRAM are accurate for predictions of blowdowns, diffusion jets, and diffusion flames of hydrogen at pressures up to 900 bar, and HyRAM 3.1 also shows good agreement with cryogenic hydrogen data. Overall, HyRAM 3.1 improves on the accuracy of the physical models relative to HyRAM 2.0. In most cases, this reduces the conservatism in risk calculations using HyRAM.

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Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM) (V.3.1) (Technical Reference Manual)

Ehrhart, Brian D.; Hecht, Ethan S.

The HyRAM software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art science and engineering models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of hydrogen safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM includes generic probabilities for hydrogen equipment failures, probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, and experimentally validated first-order models of hydrogen release and flame physics. HyRAM integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing hydrogen hazards (thermal effects from jet res, overpressure effects from deflagrations), and assessing impact on people and structures. HyRAM is developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Department of Energy to increase access to technical data about hydrogen safety and to enable the use of that data to support development and revision of national and international codes and standards. HyRAM is a research software in active development and thus the models and data may change. This report will be updated at appropriate developmental intervals. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM version 3.1. There have been several impactful updates since version 3.0. HyRAM 3.1 contains a correction to use the volume fraction for two-phase speed of sound calculations; this only affects cryogenic releases in which two-phase ow (vapor and liquid) is predicted in the orifice. Other changes include clarifications that inputs for tank pressure should be given in absolute pressure, not gauge pressure. Additionally, the interface now rejects invalid inputs to probability distributions, and the less accurate single-point radiative source model selection was removed from the interface.

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Using Bayesian Methodology to Estimate Liquefied Natural Gas Leak Frequencies

Mulcahy, Garrett W.; Brooks, Dusty M.; Ehrhart, Brian D.

This analysis provides estimates on the leak frequencies of nine components found in liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities. Data was taken from a variety of sources, with 25 different data sets included in the analysis. A hierarchical Bayesian model was used that assumes that the log leak frequency follows a normal distribution and the logarithm of the mean of this normal distribution is a linear function of the logarithm of the fractional leak area. This type of model uses uninformed prior distributions that are updated with applicable data. Separate models are fit for each component listed. Five order-of-magnitude fractional leak areas are considered, based on the flow area of the component. Three types of supporting analyses were performed: sensitivity of the model to the data set used, sensitivity of the leak frequency estimates to differences in the model structure or prior distributions, and sufficiency of sample sized used for convergence. Recommended leak frequency distributions for all component types and leak sizes are given. These leak frequency predictions can be used for quantitative risk assessments in the future.

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Risk assessment and ventilation modeling for hydrogen releases in vehicle repair garages

International Journal of Hydrogen Energy

Ehrhart, Brian D.; Harris, Shaun R.; Blaylock, Myra L.; Muna, Alice B.; Quong, S.

The availability of repair garage infrastructure for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is becoming increasingly important for future industry growth. Ventilation requirements for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles can affect both retrofitted and purpose-built repair garages and the costs associated with these requirements can be significant. A hazard and operability (HAZOP) study was performed to identify risk-significant scenarios related to light-duty hydrogen vehicles in a repair garage. Detailed simulations and modeling were performed using appropriate computational tools to estimate the location, behavior, and severity of hydrogen release based on key HAZOP scenarios. This work compares current fire code requirements to an alternate ventilation strategy to further reduce potential hazardous conditions. Modeling shows that position, direction, and velocity of ventilation have a significant impact on the amount of instantaneous flammable mass in the domain.

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Federal Oversight of Hydrogen Systems

Baird, Austin R.; Ehrhart, Brian D.; Glover, Austin M.; LaFleur, Chris B.

The application of hydrogen as an energy carrier has been expanding into industrial and transportation sectors enabling sustainable energy resources and providing a zero-emission energy infrastructure. The hydrogen supply infrastructure includes processes from production and storage, to transportation and distribution, to end use. Each portion of the hydrogen supply infrastructure is regulated by international, federal, state, and local entities. Regulations are enforced by entities which provide guidance and updates as necessary. While energy sources such as natural gas are currently regulated via the Code of Federal Regulations and United States Code, there might be some ambiguity as to which regulations are applicable to hydrogen and where regulatory gaps may exist. This report contains an overview of the regulations that apply to hydrogen, and those that may indirectly cover hydrogen as an energy carrier participating in a sustainable zero emission global energy system. As part of this effort, the infrastructure of hydrogen systems and regulation enforcement entities are defined, and a visual map and reference table are developed. This regulatory map and table can be used to identify the boundaries of federal oversight for each component of the hydrogen supply value chain which includes production, storage, distribution, and use.

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Study of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Technology for Freight Rail Propulsion and Review of Relevant Industry Standards

Ehrhart, Brian D.; Klebanoff, Leonard E.; Mohmand, Jamal A.; Markt, Cheri M.

Alternatives to conventional diesel electric propulsion are currently of interest to rail operators. In the U.S., smaller railroads have implemented natural gas and other railroads are exploring hydrogen technology as a cleaner alternative to diesel. Diesel, battery, hydrogen fuel cell, or track electrification all have trade-offs for operations, economics, safety, and public acceptability. A framework to compare different technologies for specific applications is useful to optimize the desired results. Standards from the Association of American Railroads (AAR) and other industry best practices were reviewed for applicability with hydrogen fuel cell technology. Some technical gaps relate to the physical properties of hydrogen, such as embrittlement of metals, invisible flames, and low liquid temperatures. A reassessment of material selection, leak/flame detection, and thermal insulation methods is required. Hydrogen is less dense and diffuses more easily than natural gas, and liquid hydrogen is colder than liquefied natural gas. Different densities between natural gas and hydrogen require modifications to tank designs and flow rates. Leaked hydrogen will rise rather than pool on the ground like diesel, requiring a modification to the location of hydrogen tanks on rolling stock. Finally, the vibration and shock experienced in the rail environment is higher than light-duty vehicles and stationary applications for which current fuel cell technology has been developed, requiring a modification in tank design requirements and testing.

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Risk Assessment of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles in Tunnels

Fire Technology

Ehrhart, Brian D.; Brooks, Dusty M.; Muna, Alice B.; LaFleur, Chris B.

The need to understand the risks and implications of traffic incidents involving hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles in tunnels is increasing in importance with higher numbers of these vehicles being deployed. A risk analysis was performed to capture potential scenarios that could occur in the event of a crash and provide a quantitative calculation for the probability of each scenario occurring, with a qualitative categorization of possible consequences. The risk analysis was structured using an event sequence diagram with probability distributions on each event in the tree and random sampling was used to estimate resulting probability distributions for each end-state scenario. The most likely consequence of a crash is no additional hazard from the hydrogen fuel (98.1–99.9% probability) beyond the existing hazards in a vehicle crash, although some factors need additional data and study to validate. These scenarios include minor crashes with no release or ignition of hydrogen. When the hydrogen does ignite, it is most likely a jet flame from the pressure relief device release due to a hydrocarbon fire (0.03–1.8% probability). This work represents a detailed assessment of the state-of-knowledge of the likelihood associated with various vehicle crash scenarios. This is used in an event sequence framework with uncertainty propagation to estimate uncertainty around the probability of each scenario occurring.

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Hydrogen Quantitative Risk Assessment

Muna, Alice B.; Ehrhart, Brian D.; Hecht, Ethan S.; Bran Anleu, Gabriela A.; Blaylock, Myra L.; LaFleur, Chris B.

DOE has identified consistent safety, codes, and standards as a critical need for the deployment of hydrogen technologies, with key barriers related to the availability and implementation of technical information in the development of regulations, codes, and standards. Advances in codes and standards have been enabled by risk-informed approaches to create and implement revisions to codes, such as National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) 2, NFPA 55, and International Organization for Standardization (ISO) Technical Specification (TS)-19880-1. This project provides the technical basis for these revisions, enabling the assessment of the safety of hydrogen fuel cell systems and infrastructure using QRA and physics-based models of hydrogen behavior. The risk and behavior tools that are developed in this project are motivated by, shared directly with, and used by the committees revising relevant codes and standards, thus forming the scientific basis to ensure that code requirements are consistent, logical, and defensible.

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Analyses in Support of Risk-Informed Natural Gas Vehicle Maintenance Facility Codes and Standards: Phase II

Blaylock, Myra L.; LaFleur, Chris B.; Muna, Alice B.; Ehrhart, Brian D.

Safety standards development for maintenance facilities of liquid and compressed natural gas fueled vehicles is required to ensure proper facility design and operating procedures. Standard development organizations are utilizing risk-informed concepts to develop natural gas vehicle (NGV) codes and standards so that maintenance facilities meet acceptable risk levels. The present report summarizes Phase II work for existing NGV repair facility code requirements and highlights inconsistencies that need quantitative analysis into their effectiveness. A Hazardous and Operability study was performed to identify key scenarios of interest using risk ranking. Detailed simulations and modeling were performed to estimate the location and behavior of natural gas releases based on these scenarios. Specific code conflicts were identified, and ineffective code requirements were highlighted and resolutions proposed. These include ventilation rate basis on area or volume, as well as a ceiling offset which seems ineffective at protecting against flammable gas concentrations. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors gratefully acknowledge Bill Houf (SNL -- Retired) for his assistance with the set-up and post-processing of the numerical simulations. The authors also acknowledge Doug Horne (retired) for his helpful discussions. We would also like to acknowledge the support from the Clean Cities program of DOE's Vehicle Technology Office.

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HyRAM V1.1 User Guide

Sena, Ethan A.; Ehrhart, Brian D.; Muna, Alice B.

Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM) is a software toolkit that provides a basis for quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM integrates validated, analytical models of hydrogen behavior, statistics, and a standardized QRA approach to generate useful, repeatable data for the safety analysis of various hydrogen systems. HyRAM is a software developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Department of Energy. This document demonstrates how to use HyRAM to recreate a hydrogen system and obtain relevant data regarding potential risk. Specific examples are utilized throughout this document, providing detailed tutorials of HyRAM features with respect to hydrogen system safety analysis and risk assessment.

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Evaluation of annual efficiencies of high temperature central receiver concentrated solar power plants with thermal energy storage

Ehrhart, Brian D.; Gill, David D.

The current study has examined four cases of a central receiver concentrated solar power plant with thermal energy storage using the DELSOL and SOLERGY computer codes. The current state-of-the-art base case was compared with a theoretical high temperature case which was based on the scaling of some input parameters and the estimation of other parameters based on performance targets from the Department of Energy SunShot Initiative. This comparison was done for both current and high temperature cases in two configurations: a surround field with an external cylindrical receiver and a north field with a single cavity receiver. There is a fairly dramatic difference between the design point and annual average performance, especially in the solar field and receiver subsystems, and also in energy losses due to the thermal energy storage being full to capacity. Additionally, there are relatively small differences (<2%) in annual average efficiencies between the Base and High Temperature cases, despite an increase in thermal to electric conversion efficiency of over 8%. This is due the increased thermal losses at higher temperature and operational losses due to subsystem start-up and shut-down. Thermal energy storage can mitigate some of these losses by utilizing larger thermal energy storage to ensure that the electric power production system does not need to stop and re-start as often, but solar energy is inherently transient. Economic and cost considerations were not considered here, but will have a significant impact on solar thermal electric power production strategy and sizing.

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