The Big Hill SPR site has a rich data set consisting of multi-arm caliper (MAC) logs collected from the cavern wells. This data set provides insight into the on-going casing deformation at the Big Hill site. This report summarizes the MAC surveys for each well and presents well longevity estimates where possible. Included in the report is an examination of the well twins for each cavern and a discussion on what may or may not be responsible for the different levels of deformation between some of the well twins. The report also takes a systematic view of the MAC data presenting spatial patterns of casing deformation and deformation orientation in an effort to better understand the underlying causes. The conclusions present a hypothesis suggesting the small-scale variations in casing deformation are attributable to similar scale variations in the character of the salt-caprock interface. These variations do not appear directly related to shear zones or faults.
Acceptance risk may be estimated using cumulative probability distribution functions applied to populations of measurands and test measurement values. “Simple acceptance” is a decision rule that sets the acceptance range of a test result equal to the tolerance range specification. While acceptance risk is comprised of both consumer risk and producer risk, this paper compares the effects of simple acceptance decision rules and guardbanding decision rules on consumer risk. Consumer risk is also known as the probability of false acceptance. The terms describe the risk of accepting test results as passing when the actual values exceed specification limits. False acceptance is only possible when the true value of a measurand is out of tolerance and the test result indicates that the measurand is within tolerance. Metrologists generally have some information about the test uncertainty regarding a specific acceptance test result. Along with a general lack of knowledge regarding the measurand population parameters, the complicated interplay between risk, dispersion, and central values generally prevents calibration laboratories from fully characterizing acceptance probabilities. Organizations that model the measurand populations can reduce consumer risk by avoiding certification of items whose measurand populations are not well centered. The models in this paper present a recurring trend: guardbanding reduces nonnegligible risks of false acceptance when compared to simple acceptance. However, guardbanding is not the most effective means of acceptance risk mitigation. Systematic characterization of measurand populations can provide the information a calibration laboratory needs to reliably control acceptance risk.
The main goal of this project was to create a state-of-the-art predictive capability that screens and identifies wellbores that are at the highest risk of catastrophic failure. This capability is critical to a host of subsurface applications, including gas storage, hydrocarbon extraction and storage, geothermal energy development, and waste disposal, which depend on seal integrity to meet U.S. energy demands in a safe and secure manner. In addition to the screening tool, this project also developed several other supporting capabilities to help understand fundamental processes involved in wellbore failure. This included novel experimental methods to characterize permeability and porosity evolution during compressive failure of cement, as well as methods and capabilities for understanding two-phase flow in damaged wellbore systems, and novel fracture-resistant cements made from recycled fibers.
This report presents revisions to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) well grading framework. The well grading framework is composed of multiple components and was developed as a guide in application of well remediation and monitoring resources. The revisions were applied to enhance the efficiency and consistency of the well grading process across the four SPR sites. Documentation of the revisions and any significant impact from these revisions are also discussed. The current general workflow for the application and updating of the well grades is also provided.
Approximately 93% of US total energy supply is dependent on wellbores in some form. The industry will drill more wells in next ten years than in the last 100 years (King, 2014). Global well population is around 1.8 million of which approximately 35% has some signs of leakage (i.e. sustained casing pressure). Around 5% of offshore oil and gas wells “fail” early, more with age and most with maturity. 8.9% of “shale gas” wells in the Marcellus play have experienced failure (120 out of 1,346 wells drilled in 2012) (Ingraffea et al., 2014). Current methods for identifying wells that are at highest priority for increased monitoring and/or at highest risk for failure consists of “hand” analysis of multi-arm caliper (MAC) well logging data and geomechanical models. Machine learning (ML) methods are of interest to explore feasibility for increasing analysis efficiency and/or enhanced detection of precursors to failure (e.g. deformations). MAC datasets used to train ML algorithms and preliminary tests were run for “predicting” casing collar locations and performed above 90% in classification and identifying of casing collar locations.
Approximately 93% of US total energy supply is dependent on wellbores in some form. The industry will drill more wells in next ten years than in the last 100 years (King, 2014). Global well population is around 1.8 million of which approximately 35% has some signs of leakage (i.e. sustained casing pressure). Around 5% of offshore oil and gas wells “fail” early, more with age and most with maturity. 8.9% of “shale gas” wells in the Marcellus play have experienced failure (120 out of 1,346 wells drilled in 2012) (Ingraffea et al., 2014). Current methods for identifying wells that are at highest priority for increased monitoring and/or at highest risk for failure consists of “hand” analysis of multi-arm caliper (MAC) well logging data and geomechanical models. Machine learning (ML) methods are of interest to explore feasibility for increasing analysis efficiency and/or enhanced detection of precursors to failure (e.g. deformations). MAC datasets used to train ML algorithms and preliminary tests were run for “predicting” casing collar locations and performed above 90% in classification and identifying of casing collar locations.
The three-dimensional finite element mesh capturing realistic geometries of the Bayou Choctaw site has been constructed using the sonar and seismic survey data obtained from the field. The mesh consists of hexahedral elements because the salt constitutive model is coded using hexahedral elements. Various ideas and techniques to construct finite element mesh capturing artificially and naturally formed geometries are provided. The techniques to reduce the number of elements as much as possible to save on computer run time while maintaining the computational accuracy is also introduced. The steps and methodologies could be applied to construct the meshes of Big Hill, Bryan Mound, and West Hackberry strategic petroleum reserve sites. The methodology could be applied to the complicated shape masses for various civil and geological structures.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconom ic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.
Natural gas storage facilities are a critical component of our energy supply and distribution chain, allowing elasticity in gas supply to accommodate daily to seasonal demand fluctuations. As has been made evident by the recent Aliso Canyon Gas Storage facility incident, a loss of well integrity may result in significant consequences, including the prolonged shutdown of an entire facility. The Aliso Canyon gas well blowout emitted approximately 100,000 tonnes of natural gas (mostly methane) over 4 months and displaced thousands of nearby residents from their homes. The high visibility of the event has led to increased scrutiny of the safety of natural gas storage at the Aliso Canyon facility, led to questions about energy reliability, and raised broader concerns for natural gas storage integrity throughout the country.
The World Water and Agriculture Model has been used to simulate water, hydropower, and food sector effects in Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia during the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reservoir. This unique capability allows tradeoffs to be made between filling policies for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reservoir. This Nile River Basin study is presented to illustrate the capacity to use the World Water and Agriculture Model to simulate regional food security issues while keeping a global perspective. The study uses runoff data from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 and information from the literature in order to establish a reasonable set of hydrological initial conditions. Gross Domestic Product and population growth are modelled exogenously based on a composite projection of United Nations and World Bank data. The effects of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam under various percentages of water withheld are presented.
This report analyzes data from multi-arm caliper (MAC) surveys taken at the Big Hill SPR site to determine the most likely casing weights within each well. Radial arm data from MAC surveys were used to calculate the approximate wall thickness of each well. Results from this study indicate that (1) most wells at the site have thinner wall thicknesses than expected, (2) most wells experienced an acute increase in diameter near the salt/caprock interface, and (3) there were isolated instances of well sections being the wrong casing weight. All three findings could have a negative impact on well integrity.
The 2015-2016 Aliso Canyon/Porter Ranch natural gas well blowout emitted approximately 100,000 tonnes of natural gas (mostly methane, CH4) over four months. The blowout impacted thousands of nearby residents, who were displaced from their homes. The high visibility of the event has led to increased scrutiny of the safety of natural gas storage at the Aliso Canyon facility, as well as broader concern for natural gas storage integrity throughout the country. This report presents the findings of the DOE National Laboratories Well Integrity Work Group efforts in the four tasks. In addition to documenting the work of the Work Group, this report presents high priority recommendations to improve well integrity and reduce the likelihood and consequences of subsurface natural gas leaks.
SANSMIC is solution mining software that was developed by SNL and is utilized in in Sandia’s role as geotechnical advisor to the US DOE SPR for salt cavern development and maintenance. Four SANSMIC leach modes – withdrawal, direct, reverse and leach-fill – can be modeled. This report updates and expands the original 1983 documentation. It provides execution instructions, input data descriptions, input file format, output file descriptions and an example problem.
This report summarizes the work performed in the prioritization of cavern access wells for remediation and monitoring at the Bayou Choctaw Strategic Petroleum Reserve site. The grading included consideration of all 15 wells at the Bayou Choctaw site, with each active well receiving a separate grade for remediation and monitoring. Numerous factors affecting well integrity were incorporated into the grading including casing survey results, cavern pressure history, results from geomechanical simulations, and site geologic factors. The factors and grading framework used here are the same as those used in developing similar well remediation and monitoring priorities at the Big Hill, Bryan Mound, and West Hackberry Strategic Petroleum Reserve Sites.
The three-dimensional finite element mesh capturing realistic geometries of Bayou Choctaw site has been constructed using the sonar and seismic survey data obtained from the field. The mesh is consisting of hexahedral elements because the salt constitutive model is coded using hexahedral elements. Various ideas and techniques to construct finite element mesh capturing artificially and naturally formed geometries are provided. The techniques to reduce the number of elements as much as possible to save on computer run time with maintaining the computational accuracy is also introduced. The steps and methodologies could be applied to construct the meshes of Big Hill, Bryan Mound, and West Hackberry strategic petroleum reserve sites. The methodology could be applied to the complicated shape masses for not only various civil and geological structures but also biological applications such as artificial limbs.
This report summarizes the work performed in the prioritization of cavern access wells for remediation and monitoring at the Bryan Mound Strategic Petroleum Reserve site. The grading included consideration of all 47 wells at the Bryan Mound site, with each well receiving a separate grade for remediation and monitoring. Numerous factors affecting well integrity were incorporated into the grading including casing survey results, cavern pressure history, results from geomechanical simulations, and site geologic factors. The factors and grading framework used here are the same as those used in developing similar well remediation and monitoring priorities at the Big Hill Strategic Petroleum Reserve Site.
This report summarizes the work performed in the prioritization of cavern access wells for remediation and monitoring at the West Hackberry Strategic Petroleum Reserve site. The grading included consideration of all 31 wells at the West Hackberry site, with each well receiving a separate grade for remediation and monitoring. Numerous factors affecting well integrity were incorporated into the grading including casing survey results, cavern pressure history, results from geomechanical simulations, and site geologic factors. The factors and grading framework used here are the same as those used in developing similar well remediation and monitoring priorities at the Big Hill and Bryan Mound Strategic Petroleum Reserve Sites.
This report summarizes the work performed in developing a framework for the prioritization of cavern access wells for remediation and monitoring at the Big Hill Strategic Petroleum Reserve site. This framework was then applied to all 28 wells at the Big Hill site with each well receiving a grade for remediation and monitoring. Numerous factors affecting well integrity were incorporated into the grading framework including casing survey results, cavern pressure history, results from geomechanical simulations, and site geologic factors. The framework was developed in a way as to be applicable to all four of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve sites.
This report addresses recent well integrity issues related to cavern 114 at the Big Hill Strategic Petroleum Reserve site. DM Petroleum Operations, M&O contractor for the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, recognized an apparent leak in Big Hill cavern well 114A in late summer, 2012, and provided written notice to the State of Texas as required by law. DM has since isolated the leak in well A with a temporary plug, and is planning on remediating both 114 A- and B-wells with liners. In this report Sandia provides an analysis of the apparent leak that includes: (i) estimated leak volume, (ii) recommendation for operating pressure to maintain in the cavern between temporary and permanent fixes for the well integrity issues, and (iii) identification of other caverns or wells at Big Hill that should be monitored closely in light of the sequence of failures there in the last several years.
The characterization of former military munitions ranges is critical in the identification of areas likely to contain residual unexploded ordnance (UXO). Although these ranges are large, often covering tens-of-thousands of acres, the actual target areas represent only a small fraction of the sites. The challenge is that many of these sites do not have records indicating locations of former target areas. The identification of target areas is critical in the characterization and remediation of these sites. The Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) and Environmental Security Technology Certification Program (ESTCP) of the DoD have been developing and implementing techniques for the efficient characterization of large munitions ranges. As part of this process, high-resolution LIDAR terrain data sets have been collected over several former ranges. These data sets have been shown to contain information relating to former munitions usage at these ranges, specifically terrain cratering due to high-explosives detonations. The location and relative intensity of crater features can provide information critical in reconstructing the usage history of a range, and indicate areas most likely to contain UXO. We have developed an automated procedure using an adaptation of the Circular Hough Transform for the identification of crater features in LIDAR terrain data. The Circular Hough Transform is highly adept at finding circular features (craters) in noisy terrain data sets. This technique has the ability to find features of a specific radius providing a means of filtering features based on expected scale and providing additional spatial characterization of the identified feature. This method of automated crater identification has been applied to several former munitions ranges with positive results.
Preliminary investigation areas (PIA) for a potential repository of high-level radioactive waste must be evaluated by NUMO with regard to a number of qualifying factors. One of these factors is related to earthquakes and fault activity. This study develops a spatial statistical assessment method that can be applied to the active faults in Japan to perform such screening evaluations. This analysis uses the distribution of seismicity near faults to define the width of the associated process zone. This concept is based on previous observations of aftershock earthquakes clustered near active faults and on the assumption that such seismic activity is indicative of fracturing and associated impacts on bedrock integrity. Preliminary analyses of aggregate data for all of Japan confirmed that the frequency of earthquakes is higher near active faults. Data used in the analysis were obtained from NUMO and consist of three primary sources: (1) active fault attributes compiled in a spreadsheet, (2) earthquake hypocenter data, and (3) active fault locations. Examination of these data revealed several limitations with regard to the ability to associate fault attributes from the spreadsheet to locations of individual fault trace segments. In particular, there was no direct link between attributes of the active faults in the spreadsheet and the active fault locations in the GIS database. In addition, the hypocenter location resolution in the pre-1983 data was less accurate than for later data. These pre-1983 hypocenters were eliminated from further analysis.