Publications

Wipp performance assessment: Radionuclide release sensitivity to diminished brine and gas flows to/from transuranic waste disposal areas

Day, Brad D.; Camphouse, R.C.; Zeitler, Todd Z.

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) transuranic waste repository located east of Carlsbad, New Mexico, USA, consists of 10 waste panels located in the southern end and operations and experimental areas located in the northern end. Waste panels are to be separated from each other and from the northern areas by panel closure systems that consist of run-of-mine-salt that will compact and reconsolidate over time along with the creep closure of open areas of the repository. To more fully assess the sensitivity of predicted repository releases to currently implemented material parameters, the application of modified parameters in the operations and experimental (non-waste) areas of the repository is undertaken to simulate an accelerated (instantaneous) creep closure, the inclusion of capillary pressure effects on relative permeability, and an increase in initial/residual brine saturation and residual gas saturation in the operations and experimental areas of the repository. The resulting sensitivity analysis (CRA14-SEN2) is then compared to the most recent compliance recertification application results presented for CRA-2014 PA (CRA14). The modifications to the repository model result in increased pressures and decreased brine saturations in waste areas and increased pressures and brine saturations in the operations and experimental areas. The slight pressure increases in repository waste regions yield very slightly decreased brine saturations (on average) in those areas. Brine flows up the borehole during a hypothetical drilling intrusion are nearly identical to those found in the CRA14. Brine flows up the repository shaft are decreased as compared to CRA14 due to restricted flow within the operations and experimental areas. The modified operations and experimental area parameters essentially halt the flow of gas from the southern waste areas of the repository to the northern non-waste areas, except as transported through the marker beds and anhydrite layers. The combination of slightly increased waste region pressure (on average) and very slightly decreased brine saturations result in a modest increase in spallings and no significant effect on direct brine releases due to the pressure/saturation trade-off. Total releases from the Culebra and cuttings and cavings releases are not affected. Overall, the effects on total high-probability (P(R) > 0.1) mean releases from the repository are entirely insignificant, with total low-probability (P(R) > 0.001) mean releases minimally increased (~4%) and the associated 95% confidence level on the mean reduced (~20%). It is concluded that the baseline modeling assumptions associated with the operations and experimental areas of the repository have an insignificant effect on the prediction of total releases from the repository and/or adequacy of the current (CRA14) model to demonstrate compliance with the regulatory limits.