Publications

UQ and V&V techniques applied to experiments and simulations of heated pipes pressurized to failure

Romero, Vicente J.; Dempsey, James F.; Antoun, Bonnie R.

This report demonstrates versatile and practical model validation and uncertainty quantification techniques applied to the accuracy assessment of a computational model of heated steel pipes pressurized to failure. The Real Space validation methodology segregates aleatory and epistemic uncertainties to form straightforward model validation metrics especially suited for assessing models to be used in the analysis of performance and safety margins. The methodology handles difficulties associated with representing and propagating interval and/or probabilistic uncertainties from multiple correlated and uncorrelated sources in the experiments and simulations including: material variability characterized by non-parametric random functions (discrete temperature dependent stress-strain curves); very limited (sparse) experimental data at the coupon testing level for material characterization and at the pipe-test validation level; boundary condition reconstruction uncertainties from spatially sparse sensor data; normalization of pipe experimental responses for measured input-condition differences among tests and for random and systematic uncertainties in measurement/processing/inference of experimental inputs and outputs; numerical solution uncertainty from model discretization and solver effects.