Publications
Understanding uncertainty in geothermal energy development using a formalized performance assessment approach
For over 50 years, performance assessment (PA) has been used throughout the world to inform decisions concerning the storage and management of radioactive waste. Some of the applications of PA include environmental assessments of nuclear disposal sites, development of methodologies and regulations for the long-term storage of nuclear waste, regulatory assessment for site selection and licensing at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant and Yucca Mountain, and safety assessments for nuclear reactors. PA begins with asking the following questions: 1) What can happen? 2) How likely is it to happen? 3) What are the consequences when it does happen? and 4) What is the uncertainty of the first three questions? This work presents an approach for applying PA methodologies to geothermal resource evaluation that is adaptable and conformable to all phases of geothermal energy production. It provides a consistent and transparent framework for organizing data and information in a manner that supports decision making and accounts for uncertainties. The process provides a better understanding of the underlying risks that can jeopardize the development and/or performance of a geothermal project and identifies the best pathways for reducing or eliminating those risks. The approach is demonstrated through hypothetical examples of both hydrothermal and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS).