Publications

Uncertainty Analysis of Consequence Management (CM) Data Products

Hunt, Brian D.; Eckert, Aubrey C.; Cochran, Lainy D.; Kraus, Terrence D.; Fournier, Sean D.; Allen, Mark B.; Schetnan, Richard R.; Simpson, Matthew S.; Okada, Colin O.; Bingham, Avery A.

The goal of this project is to develop and execute methods for characterizing uncertainty in data products that are deve loped and distributed by the DOE Consequence Management (CM) Program. A global approach to this problem is necessary because multiple sources of error and uncertainty from across the CM skill sets contribute to the ultimate p roduction of CM data products. This report presents the methods used to develop a probabilistic framework to characterize this uncertainty and provides results for an uncertainty analysis for a study scenario analyzed using this framework.