Publications

The Hydrogen Futures Simulation Model (H[2]Sim) technical description

Drennen, Thomas E.; Lutz, Andrew E.

Hydrogen has the potential to become an integral part of our energy transportation and heat and power sectors in the coming decades and offers a possible solution to many of the problems associated with a heavy reliance on oil and other fossil fuels. The Hydrogen Futures Simulation Model (H2Sim) was developed to provide a high level, internally consistent, strategic tool for evaluating the economic and environmental trade offs of alternative hydrogen production, storage, transport and end use options in the year 2020. Based on the model's default assumptions, estimated hydrogen production costs range from 0.68 $/kg for coal gasification to as high as 5.64 $/kg for centralized electrolysis using solar PV. Coal gasification remains the least cost option if carbon capture and sequestration costs ($0.16/kg) are added. This result is fairly robust; for example, assumed coal prices would have to more than triple or the assumed capital cost would have to increase by more than 2.5 times for natural gas reformation to become the cheaper option. Alternatively, assumed natural gas prices would have to fall below $2/MBtu to compete with coal gasification. The electrolysis results are highly sensitive to electricity costs, but electrolysis only becomes cost competitive with other options when electricity drops below 1 cent/kWhr. Delivered 2020 hydrogen costs are likely to be double the estimated production costs due to the inherent difficulties associated with storing, transporting, and dispensing hydrogen due to its low volumetric density. H2Sim estimates distribution costs ranging from 1.37 $/kg (low distance, low production) to 3.23 $/kg (long distance, high production volumes, carbon sequestration). Distributed hydrogen production options, such as on site natural gas, would avoid some of these costs. H2Sim compares the expected 2020 per mile driving costs (fuel, capital, maintenance, license, and registration) of current technology internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles (0.55$/mile), hybrids (0.56 $/mile), and electric vehicles (0.82-0.84 $/mile) with 2020 fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) (0.64-0.66 $/mile), fuel cell vehicles with onboard gasoline reformation (FCVOB) (0.70 $/mile), and direct combustion hydrogen hybrid vehicles (H2Hybrid) (0.55-0.59 $/mile). The results suggests that while the H2Hybrid vehicle may be competitive with ICE vehicles, it will be difficult for the FCV to compete without significant increases in gasoline prices, reduced predicted vehicle costs, stringent carbon policies, or unless they can offer the consumer something existing vehicles can not, such as on demand power, lower emissions, or better performance.