Publications

System Theoretic Frameworks for Mitigating Risk Complexity in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Williams, Adam D.; Osborn, Douglas M.; Jones, Katherine A.; Kalinina, Elena A.; Cohn, Brian C.; Mohagheghi, Amir H.; DeMenno, Mercy D.; Thomas, Maikael A.; Parks, Mancel J.; Parks, Ethan R.; Jeantete, Brian A.

In response to the expansion of nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) activities -- and the associated suite of risks -- around the world, this project evaluated systems-based solutions for managing such risk complexity in multimodal and multi-jurisdictional international spent nuclear fuel (SNF) transportation. By better understanding systemic risks in SNF transportation, developing SNF transportation risk assessment frameworks, and evaluating these systems-based risk assessment frameworks, this research illustrated interdependency between safety, security, and safeguards risks is inherent in NFC activities and can go unidentified when each "S" is independently evaluated. Two novel system-theoretic analysis techniques -- dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) and system-theoretic process analysis (STPA) -- provide integrated "3S" analysis to address these interdependencies and the research results suggest a need -- and provide a way -- to reprioritize United States engagement efforts to reduce global nuclear risks. Lastly, this research identifies areas where Sandia National Laboratories can spearhead technical advances to reduce global nuclear dangers.