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State-of-the-art reactor consequence analyses project uncertainty analyses: Insights on offsite consequences

Tina Ghosh, S.; Esmaili, Hossein; Hathaway, Alfred; Bixler, Nathan E.; Brooks, Dusty M.; Osborn, Douglas M.; Wagner, Kenneth C.

This paper is the third paper in a special session on the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) Uncertainty Analyses (UAs), and summarizes offsite consequence insights from the three SOARCA UAs. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) with Sandia National Laboratories has completed three UAs for particular station blackout scenarios as part of the SOARCA research project: for a boiling-water reactor with a Mark I containment in Pennsylvania State (Peach Bottom), for a pressurized-water reactor (PWR) with an ice condenser containment in Tennessee State (Sequoyah), and for a PWR with subatmospheric large dry containment in Virginia State (Surry). The Sequoyah and Surry SOARCA UAs focused on an unmitigated short-term station blackout (SBO) scenario involving an immediate loss of offsite and onsite AC power. In the Surry UA, induced steam generator tube rupture was also modeled. The Sequoyah study focused on issues unique to the ice condenser containment and the potential for early containment failure due to hydrogen combustion. The Peach Bottom UA focused on an unmitigated long-term SBO scenario, where battery power is initially available. The MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS) suite of codes was used for offsite radiological consequence modeling. This paper presents the offsite consequence results, individual latent cancer fatality risk and the individual early fatality risk, for the three SOARCA UAs and summarizes some of the insights and features of the analyses.