Publications

Simulating smoking behaviors based on cognition-determined, opinion-based system dynamics

Naugle, Asmeret B.; Miner, Nadine E.; Aamir, Munaf S.; Jeffers, Robert F.; Verzi, Stephen J.; Bernard, Michael L.

We created a cognition-focused system dynamics model to simulate the dynamics of smoking tendencies based on media influences and communication of opinions. We based this model on the premise that the dynamics of attitudes about smoking can be more deeply understood by combining opinion dynamics with more in-depth psychological models that explicitly explore the root causes of behaviors of interest. Results of the model show the relative effectiveness of two different policies as compared to a baseline: A decrease in advertising spending, and an increase in educational spending. The initial results presented here indicate the utility of this type of simulation for analyzing various policies meant to influence the dynamics of opinions in a population.