Publications

Sequoyah SOARCA uncertainty analysis of a STSBO accident

Bixler, Nathan E.; Dennis, Matthew L.; Brooks, Dusty M.; Osborn, Douglas M.; Ghosh, S.T.; Hathaway, Alfred

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated the state-of-the-art reactor consequence analyses (SOARCA) project to develop realistic estimates of the offsite radiological health consequences for potential severe reactor accidents. The SOARCA analysis of an ice condenser containment plant was performed because its relatively low design pressure and reliance on igniters makes it potentially susceptible to early containment failure from hydrogen combustion during a severe accident. The focus was on station blackout accident scenarios where all alternating current power is lost. Accident progression calculations used the MELCOR computer code and offsite consequence analyses were performed with MACCS. The analysis included more than 500 MELCOR and MACCS simulations to account for uncertainty in important accident progression and offsite consequence input parameters. Consequences from severe nuclear power plant accidents modeled in this and previous SOARCA analyses are smaller than calculated in earlier studies. The delayed releases calculated provide more time for emergency response actions. The results show that early containment failure is very unlikely, even without successful use of igniters. However, these results are dependent on the distributions assigned to safety valve failure-to-close parameters, and considerable uncertainty remains on the true distributions for these parameters due to very limited test data. Even for scenarios resulting in early containment failure, the calculated individual latent fatal cancer risks are very small. Early and latent-cancer fatality risks are one focus of this paper. Regression results showing the most influential parameters are also discussed.