Publications

PREDICT User's Manual

Young, Larry W.; Sturgis, Beverly R.

Sandia National Laboratories has developed a Near Real Time Range Safety Analysis Tool named PREDICT that is based upon a probabilistic range safety analysis process. Probabilistic calculations of risk may be used in place of the total containment of potentially hazardous debris during a missile launch operation. Impact probabilities are computed based upon probabilistic density functions, Monte Carlo trajectories of dispersion events, and missile failure scenarios. Impact probabilities are then coupled with current demographics (land populations, commercial and military ship traffic, and aircraft traffic) to produce expected casualty predictions for a particular launch window. Historically, these calculations required days of computer time to finalize. Sandia has developed a process that utilizes the IBM SP machines at the Maui High Performance Computing Center and at the Arctic Region Supercomputing Center to reduce the computation time from days to as little as an hour or two. This analysis tool then allows the Missile Flight Safety Officer to make launch decisions based on the latest information (winds, ship, and aircraft movements) utilizing an intelligent risk management approach. This report provides a user's manual for PREDICT version 3.3.