Publications

Political dynamics determined by interactions between political leaders and voters

Bernard, Michael L.; Backus, George A.; Hills, Richard G.

The political dynamics associated with an election are typically a function of the interplay between political leaders and voters, as well as endogenous and exogenous factors that impact the perceptions and goals of the electorate. This paper describes an effort by Sandia National Laboratories to model the attitudes and behaviors of various political groups along with that population's primary influencers, such as government leaders. To accomplish this, Sandia National Laboratories is creating a hybrid system dynamics-cognitive model to simulate systems- and individual-level political dynamics in a hypothetical society. The model is based on well-established psychological theory, applied to both individuals and groups within the modeled society. Confidence management processes are being incorporated into the model design process to increase the utility of the tool and assess its performance. This project will enhance understanding of how political dynamics are determined in democratic society.