Publications

On calibration of simpler alternatives to statistical load extrapolation for wind turbine design

Manuel, Lance; Nguyen, Hieu H.; Barone, Matthew F.

An extensive database of simulated loads representing almost 100 years of operation of a utility-scale wind turbine has been developed using high-performance computing resources. Such a large amount of data makes it possible to evaluate several proposals being considered in planned revisions of industry guidelines such as the International Electrotechnical Commission's 61400-1 wind turbine design standard. Current design provisions, especially those dependent on large amounts of data, can be critically examined and validated or alternative proposals can be made based on studies using this loads database. We discuss one design load case in particular that requires nominal 50-year loads, often difficult to establish with limited simulations followed by statistical extrapolation, to which a load factor (1.25) is applied. Alternatives that use other load statistics easier to establish from simulations are systematically evaluated. Such robust load statistics are associated with lower levels of uncertainty. Load factors to be applied to such alternative nominal loads are higher than those for the 50-year load. We discuss how the loads database developed enabled systematic study of a proposal that can serve as an alternative to use of a factored 50-year load. Calibration of this proposal accounts for the uncertainty in estimation of loads from simulation and the large database allows assessment against 50-year loads with quantifiable (and low) uncertainty.