Publications

Network Modeling of the U.S. Petrochemical Industry under Raw Material and Hurricane Harvey Disruptions

DeRosa, Sean D.; Kimura, Yosuke K.; Stadtherr, Mark S.; McGaughey, Gary M.; McDonald-Buller, Elena M.; Allen, David A.

A geographically resolved network model of the U.S. chemical industry in 2017 is designed, and optimal chemical flows between units are calculated using linear programming. A baseline solution and three disruption scenarios (primary raw material disruptions, reported Hurricane Harvey ethylene cracker disruptions, and assumed capacity disruptions based on the Hurricane Harvey geographic storm track) are reported on to determine how the structure of the industry is modified to adapt to widespread and geographically specific disruptions. The calculated impacts of the assumed Hurricane Harvey disruption include 170 chemical units in 26 states that change production level as a result of supply chain disruptions during the storm. The systemic impact for the assumed Hurricane Harvey disruption is 19.3 million tonnes of gross chemical production. The day with the largest impact on gross chemical production shows a reduction from baseline operations of 1.3 million tonnes (42% of baseline). This model can be utilized for analysis of future disruption scenarios and to test resilience strategies, including impacts of new manufacturing configurations or technologies.