Publications

Modeling the national chlorinated hydrocarbon supply chain and effects of disruption

Welk, Margaret E.; Sun, Amy C.; Downes, Paula S.

Chlorinated hydrocarbons represent the precursors for products ranging from polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and refrigerants to pharmaceuticals. Natural or manmade disruptions that affect the availability of these products nationally have the potential to affect a wide range of markets, from healthcare to construction. Analysis of chemical supply chains is an inherently complex task, given the dependence of these supply chains on multiple infrastructure systems (e.g. transportation and energy). This effort requires data and information at various levels of resolution, ranging from network-level distribution systems to individual chemical reactions. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has tasked the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) with developing a chemical infrastructure analytical capability to assess interdependencies and complexities of the nation's critical infrastructure, including the chemical sector. To address this need, the Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) component of NISAC has integrated its existing simulation and infrastructure analysis capabilities with various chemical industry datasets to create a capability to analyze and estimate the supply chain economic impacts resulting from large-scale disruptions to the chemical sector. This development effort is ongoing and is currently being funded by the DHS's Science and Technology Directorate. This paper describes the methodology being used to create the capability and the types of data necessary to exercise the capability, and it presents an example analysis focusing on the chlorinated hydrocarbon portion of the chemical supply chain.